Afternoon summary
Keir Starmer has said that Labour is “redrawing the political map” as he carried out a triumphant tour to the site of two historic overnight byelection wins, as his party overturned huge Conservative majorities in Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire. And here is an analysis of the results by Lewis Baston.
And here is his conclusion.
The Conservatives have attempted to draw some comfort from the low turnout in the byelections, but the falls were not out of kilter with other recent byelections and, if anything, it makes the collapse in the Conservative vote look worse.
There is no reason to suppose that the abstainers are cheering the government on. They are more likely to be disillusioned with politics, particularly if they put their faith in Brexit in 2016 and Boris Johnson in 2019.
The byelection results are unalloyed good news for Labour. Unless there is a sharp change in the political weather, Labour is on course for a stunning electoral triumph at the next general election, a turnaround unlike anything Britain has seen since the Liberal landslide of 1906.
Rishi Sunak has told broadcasters in Cairo that the Conservative losses in the Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire byelections were “disappointing” but said there were “local factors at play”.
Rishi Sunak and the Egyptian president, Abdel Fatah al-Sisi, have agreed leaders needed to “avoid a contagion of conflict” in the Middle East. After they met in Cairo earlier today, No 10 said:
The leaders said that the loss of life in Israel and Gaza over the last few days was truly tragic. They agreed that global leaders should do everything possible to avoid a contagion of conflict in the region, and that every effort must be made to stop terrorism and protect civilians.
Photograph: Toby Melville/Reuters
Updated
In electoral politics, the past is not a perfect guide to the future, but it is a lot better than nothing, and much of the commentary today about what we can learn from last night’s byelections has focused on how Labour is doing compared to when it was in opposition in the past, and what that means for the next election.
Rob Ford, a politics professor, has written a good post on his Substack account going into this in more detail, and he has good charts putting the scale of the Labour victories in context.
This one shows Labour’s best byelection wins in terms of swing from the Conservatives since 1945. The light red ones were this year.
And this one shows average government to opposition swing in byelections parliament by parliament since 1945. The two bars on the furthest right (light grey and black) are swings for this parliament, before Partygate and after Partygate.
Ford says:
The latest two smashing wins have pulled Labour’s average swing in “big two” by-elections for the whole Parliament up to 9 points. This is getting close to the swing levels seen in past Parliaments where the opposition went on to win - Margaret Thatcher managed an average swing of 10 points in 1974-79, David Cameron managed 10.9 points in 2005-10 and Ted Heath managed 12.1 points in 1966-70. Starmer is already wel ahead of some general election winners: Harold Wilson managed only 5.5 points in the 1959-64 Parliament, and 4.3 points in 1970-74, while Winston Churchill managed just 4.9 points in 1950-51. Are were well behind Starmer’s current average.
However, we should take seriously the possibility that the first two years of this Parliament were an outlier, with a major pandemic driven “rally round the flag” effect. If we therefore focus instead on by-elections since 2021, the average swing to Labour is 12.4 points, meaning Starmer is now ahead of five of the six opposition leaders who have gone on to win general elections since 1945. He is behind only one - Tony Blair (14.4 point average swing) - and his performances this year have been matching Blair’s best.
The full post is well worth reading. Here is the in a nutshell version.
It is true that Starmer is not at Blair 1994-1997 levels of popularity.
It is not true that he needs to be in order to win.
Every polling and election performance indicator is flashing red for Cons.
And their PM is currently as popular as...Jeremy Corbyn was in December 2019.
It is true that Starmer is not at Blair 1994-1997 levels of popularity.
— Rob Ford (@robfordmancs) October 20, 2023
It is not true that he needs to be in order to win.
Every polling and election performance indicator is flashing red for Cons.
And their PM is currently as popular as...Jeremy Corbyn was in December 2019. https://t.co/Xmc49IeFGt
Charities that work with asylum seekers have criticised the government’s proposal to consult councils on the number of refugees to be admitted to the UK arriving via safe and legal routes. (See 12.51pm.)
Steve Smith, chief executive of refugee charity Care4Calais, said:
Passing the buck to underfunded councils to justify limiting safe futures is a dereliction of leadership.
If the government was serious about putting people smugglers out of business, stopping small boat crossings and saving lives, they would immediately get on with introducing a safe passage visa for refugees fleeing war, torture and modern slavery to claim asylum in the UK.
And Tim Naor Hilton, chief executive of Refugee Action, said:
The government must not think about caps but a target to resettle at least 30,000 refugees a year as part of a standardised global scheme that can expand to respond quickly to emerging crises, such as in Afghanistan and Ukraine.
No 10 urges people attending pro-Palestinian marches to be 'mindful' of fear felt by others
Downing Street has said that pro-Palestine marchers attending demonstrations scheduled to take place around the UK this weekend have a right to protest but should “be mindful” of the “fear and distress felt by many families in this country”.
The comments by a spokesperson for Rishi Sunak are a subtle shift in the government’s tone from last week, when the Foreign Secretary James Cleverly said that there should be a “pause” in such protest in the wake of the October 7 attack on Israeli by Hamas.
At the lobby briefing this morning a Downing Street spokesperson told reporters:
We’re clear that people must remain free to peacefully express their views, and protest is an important part of our democracy, but we also recognise that this is clearly a deeply distressing time for many,.
And we would appeal to everyone across the country and those who are considering joining these protests to be mindful of that - and to consider the fear and distress felt by many families in this country over the distressing events that we’ve seen.
With regard to clamping down on antisemitism and any forms of hatred and abuse, we’re very clear that the police should take the strongest action where they see that and use the full extent of the law to crack down on criminality.
Mandelson says 'many' in Labour think they've won general election already and that's 'poisonous' for its chances
Under a little-known rule it is now compulsory for all retired frontline politicians to have a podcast, and Lord Mandelson, the former Labour cabinet minister, has just started his. Along with Daniel Finkelstein, the Conservative peer, and Polly Mackenzie, a former aide to Nick Clegg, he is doing a podcast called How To Win An Election with the Times.
In a trailer, that seems to have been recorded before the byelection results came in, he says “many” people in the Labour party think they have won the general election already and that is “poisonous” for the party’s prospects. He says:
One really big issue for the Labour party is that many of them, I’m afraid, really do feel that the election has been won and that is so poisonous. It is so corrosive for a party. I tell you why: because it leads you into traps and mistakes. It makes you feel well, actually, it doesn’t matter if we just make ourselves sort of half better or half appealing or put this policy half right. You know, let’s sort of split the difference between appealing to the public and keeping the party happy. That is such a danger for the Labour party.
Updated
The long-running industrial dispute over university staff pensions has come to an end, after 99% of University and College Union (UCU) members voted to accept an offer from employers that reverses previous cuts.
The vote brings to an end the dispute over the Universities Superannuation Scheme (USS), which has been running since 2018.
Jo Grady, the UCU’s general secretary, said:
This is a momentous day, not just for our members, but for workers everywhere. After taking 69 days of strike action in a five-year battle to defend our pensions, we have won and within months university staff will see the UK’s largest private pension scheme fully restore our pensions.
Meanwhile, teachers at sixth-form colleges in England have also voted to accept an offer of a 6.5% pay rise for the majority of staff and an 8.4% increase for those on the lowest pay point.
Updated
Byelection results show Sunak needs to be 'more robust' in adopting conservative policies, says Danny Kruger
Danny Kruger, who is co-chair of the New Conservatives, a new group for rightwing MPs, told Radio 4’s World at One that the Tories lost last night because their supporters were not voting, not because they had switched to Labour. It is the same argument put by Greg Hands, the party chair (see 7.55am), and Gillian Keegan, the education secretary (see 11.24am).
Kruger said:
The fact is Labour didn’t win these elections. We lost them, unfortunately. And that’s because people who previously backed us decided not to.
So I am very disappointed, and I think it’s a wake-up call for us.
But I’m not downhearted because I think the numbers show that we can still win. We just need to get our people to come out and vote for us.
Since the summer Rishi Sunak has adopted a more combative, rightwing edge, watering down some net zero policies, promising to end the so-called “war on motorists” and not ruling out leaving the European convention on human rights. Some Tories have argued that the byelection results show these moves have not worked (see 11.16am), but Kruger said he drew the opposite conclusion. Sunak needed to be “more robust and braver”, he said. He told the programme:
What people need, if they’re conservative-inclined, if they’re minded to vote for us, if they voted for us before, in order to vote for us again next time they need to know that we’re standing up for their values, their interests, and that we have a coherent, conservative message.
I think the prime minister does have that in many respects, and I’m encouraged by some of the direction of travel that we’ve seen, particularly on net zero on migration. There are other issues as well.
I think we just need to continue in that direction and be more coherent, more robust and braver.
(If you had asked Kruger yesterday what he wanted from Sunak, he would have also said a more robust and braver conservative message. Responses to election defeats are most interesting, and often most perceptive, when they involve a politician saying the opposite of what they previously thought might be right.)
Updated
Richard Tice, the Reform UK party leader, says that last night’s byelection results, which saw his party getting more votes than Labour won by in both Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire, shows Reform UK could have a “significant effect” at the election.
Common sense @reformparty_uk policies gaining traction
We stand everywhere & will have significant effect at General Election
Tories & Labour = two forms of socialism: high tax, high regulation = low growth
Common sense @reformparty_uk policies gaining traction
— Richard Tice 🇬🇧 (@TiceRichard) October 20, 2023
We stand everywhere & will have significant effect at General Election
Tories & Labour = two forms of socialism: high tax, high regulation = low growth https://t.co/CMEnEHGudt
He also says he won’t stand down candidates to help the Conservatives, and that Reform UK will be standing in all British constituencies.
Yes I will keep my promise
630 seats
Yes I will keep my promise
— Richard Tice 🇬🇧 (@TiceRichard) October 20, 2023
630 seats https://t.co/povnv6SSsP
Rishi Sunak met the emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani, in Riyadh this morning, on the second day of his tour of the Middle East. In a readout of the meeting, No 10 said they agreed the Hamas attack on Israel was “shocking and tragic”, they stressed the need to avoid escalation and they agreed “on the urgent need to get food, water and medicine to civilians who are suffering” in Gaza.
No 10 also said:
The prime minister thanked Qatar for their efforts to secure the release of hostages taken by Hamas two weeks ago, including British nationals. He said that the UK government would use all the tools at our disposal to support these efforts and end the torment of the victims and their families. The leaders agreed to stay in close contact to continue these efforts.
Updated
In a post on X overnight, Luke Tryl also pointed out that, even though Reform UK is a very rightwing party, its voters would not necessarily back the Tories if Reform UK were not on the ballot paper. (See 1.14pm.)
Not that all Reform U.K. voters would opt for the Tories in other circumstances a good chunk would vote green (classic protest votes) or say they’d sit it out. pic.twitter.com/SQpzd3qdmV
— Luke Tryl (@LukeTryl) October 20, 2023
Updated
In Tamworth (see 6.48am) and Mid Bedfordshire (see 6.51am) the number of people voting for Reform UK, the new version of the Brexit party (which in effect replaced Ukip, although a rump Ukip still exists) was bigger than the size of the Labour majority, by 57 and 295 respectively. According to Luke Tryl, the director of More in Common UK, which campaigns for a less divisive politics, that is one of several aspects of the results that should worry the Conservatives. He says:
It’s not just that Labour has won two of the safest seats in the country it’s that they have overcome really significant electoral barriers to do so. In Mid Bedfordshire, Labour won despite a split in the anti-Tory vote and in Tamworth they won a seat that voted heavily for Leave in 2016 and also trended away from Labour at an alarming rate since the party last held it in 2005. All of this suggests that the Tories learnt the wrong lesson from the Uxbridge byelection in July and should have instead focused on what happened in Selby.
The Tories will also have a new worry after tonight; the emergence of a split on the right which saw the Reform UK vote larger than the Labour majority in both Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire. It suggests that, far from dampening support for the populist right, Rishi Sunak’s adopting of rhetoric around ‘the war on motorists’ may instead have boosted those parties.
Byelections aren’t the same as a general election, of course, but from everything we’ve seen in these two huge results the Tories should be very worried indeed. A significant economic recovery and subsequent feel-good factor over the next year is the only hope that could turn their fortunes around – and on this evidence, even that may not be enough.
Updated
Home Office opens consultation on how many refugees arriving via legal routes to admit to UK
The Home Office has announced that it is opening a consultation with councils on setting a cap on the number of refugees to be allowed to settle in the UK every year. The Illegal Migration Act is intended to stop anyone arriving in the UK through irregular means from claiming asylum, and it also includes provisions for a cap on the number of refugees to be admitted if they arrive through safe and legal routes.
In its news release, the Home Office claims having a cap will make the safe and legal route option more feasible. It says:
With a clearer picture of the UK’s capacity to welcome refugees, through the cap, the government will be able to redouble efforts to help more people from all over the world to come through safe and legal routes and ensure that commitments made by councils can be met now and in the future. This will create a more sustainable and well-managed system that is fairer and prioritises both local communities and refugees.
The government is consulting local authorities because they end up having to find accommodation for refugees.
The cap will cover people arriving through the UK resettlement scheme (UKRS), the Afghan citizens resettlement scheme (ACRS) and the community sponsorship scheme. But it will not cover people arriving through the Ukraine visa schemes, the Afghan relocation and assistance policy (ARAP), the Hong Kong British national (overseas) route or the mandate scheme.
The Home Office says, after being agreed by parliament, the cap will come into force from January 2025.
Updated
Starmer says byelection results show people 'fed up with 13 years of decline' under Tories
Keir Starmer is now in Tamworth where he has been speaking to supporters in the main stand at the Lamb, the home of Tamworth FC. Starmer told them:
People told me that it was not possible to win this seat and this byelection. You absolutely smashed it.
What you have seen here replicates what’s going on across the country – people are fed up to the back teeth with 13 years of decline under this government.
They want a fresh start. They want to go forward.
There were Tory voters yesterday who went to the ballot box to vote Labour. That is because they are fed up with the decline and despairing of the party they used to vote for.
Updated
Keegan claims there were 'very, very few people switching' from Tories to Labour in byelections
In an interview with ITV News Gillian Keegan, the education secretary, claimed that the byelection results “did not show a swing to Labour”.
That’s wrong. Swing is a measure in the shift in share of the vote between the two main parties, and in both seats there was a big swing to Labour.
What Keegan meant was that she thought previous Tory voters were not actively switching to Labour. A party can in theory experience a big swing against it just through supporters failing to turn out, without a single person changing sides. Keegan said:
On the doorsteps [in the byelections] there were very, very few people who were switching over. There was no real love for Labour.
'This did not show a swing to @Labour'
— ITV News Politics (@ITVNewsPolitics) October 20, 2023
Education Secretary @GillianKeegan speaks after two crushing by-election defeats for the @Conservatives in Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire https://t.co/IN4rjDTqAk pic.twitter.com/P5P0HeUAWB
Gavin Barwell, the Tory peer and former chief of staff to Theresa May, says last night’s results show the party drew the wrong conclusion from its victory in the Uxbridge and South Ruislip byelection.
These by-election results are as bad as Selby and Somerton back in July (Tamworth is the second highest swing Labour have ever achieved to gain a seat from the Conservatives). They show Sunak’s net zero pivot and conference speech have had no impact on his party’s prospects
These by-election results are as bad as Selby and Somerton back in July (Tamworth is the second highest swing Labour have ever achieved to gain a seat from the Conservatives). They show Sunak's net zero pivot and conference speech have had no impact on his party's prospects
— Gavin Barwell (@GavinBarwell) October 20, 2023
Back in July, everyone focused on Uxbridge. Conclusions were drawn even though it was clear at the time it was down to a *local* issue and Selby and Somerton were more likely to represent the national mood. Tamworth and Mid Beds confirm that was a serious mistake
Back in July, everyone focused on Uxbridge. Conclusions were drawn even though it was clear at the time it was down to a *local* issue and Selby and Somerton were more likely to represent the national mood. Tamworth and Mid Beds confirm that was a serious mistake
— Gavin Barwell (@GavinBarwell) October 20, 2023
In Uxbridge and South Ruislip the Conservatives won unexpectedly after campaigning hard against the expansion of Ulez, the ultra-low emissions zone. Ulez is an anti-pollution tax, not an anti-carbon tax, but soon afterwards Rishi Sunak watered down some important net zero policies. He claimed he had been concerned that the original policies were too draconian for some time, and he wasn’t just U-turning on the basis of a byelection result, but Uxbridge undoubtedly firmed up Tory enthusiasm for measures that reduce green costs.
Gillian Keegan says she will impose anti-strike minimum service rules on schools if unions don't agree them voluntarily
Gillian Keegan, the education secretary for England, has told teaching unions to come up with a “voluntary agreement” on minimum service levels in schools during industrial action or face restrictions being imposed.
The Department for Education said Keegan had written to teaching unions, “inviting them to discuss proposals on a voluntary basis in the first instance” that would keep schools open in some form during strikes. If they failed to reach an agreement, Keegan said she would open a consultation on imposing minimum service levels in schools and colleges, using legislation passed in July.
Keegan announced similar proposals for universities during her speech to the Conservative party conference earlier this month.
Under the new law, striking staff who fail to comply with minimum service levels could face dismissal and their unions could be sued. However, the Trades Union Congress has called the law “draconian” and the government faces legal hurdles imposing restrictions on staff in non-emergency services.
Daniel Kebede, the general secretary of the National Education Union (NEU), England’s largest teaching union, said:
The NEU strongly oppose the introduction of minimum service levels (MSLs). We do not acknowledge the validity of MSLs given their impact on the fundamental right to strike, therefore we do not believe this is an appropriate topic for the government or Department for Education to regulate.
Gillian Keegan should turn her attention to the fact that every day in schools a level of service well below what should be expected is experienced by children and young people.
Updated
Here is my colleague Peter Walker’s analysis of the significance of the byelection results.
And here is an extract.
The Mid Beds result also carries another bad omen for Sunak and his party: the way that English voters are becoming increasingly good at deciding who they need to club together tactically to unseat the Conservatives.
This is always harder to do amid the noise of a general election, but the decision of voters to coalesce more around Labour as it became clear they had the better chance shows an arguably new level of focus in anti-Conservative voting.
Commons security staff suspend planned strike action
Security guards at the House of Commons have suspended planned strikes after being told that the introduction of an unpopular new shift pattern will be paused, PA Media reports.
More than 250 members of the Public and Commercial Services union (PCS) were due to take industrial action on 31 October, 1, 6 and 7 November in a row over night shifts. The king’s speech is on 7 November.
The union said managers had “backtracked” and agreed to suspend the implementation of a new roster while they spoke to union representatives, PA reports.
Updated
Beth Rigby, Sky News’ political editor, is wary of suggestions that Rishi Sunak might face a leadership challenge.
On letters into the 1922, one MP tells me: “I think some will [send them] but the mood is that the game is up and even if letters went in he’d win a vote. The MPs are literally blind and they back him because he’s bought off so many with jobs”
On letters into the 1922, one MP tells me: “I think some will [send them] but the mood is that the game is up and even if letters went in he’d win a vote. The MPs are literally blind and they back him because he’s bought off so many with jobs”
— Beth Rigby (@BethRigby) October 20, 2023
On Tuesday next week Rishi Sunak will have been Conservative party leader for a year, and at that point his grace period ends and he can be subject to a confidence vote if 15% of Tory MPs write to the 1922 Committee asking for one. But for that to happen, 53 MPs would have to submit a letter.
Hands refuses to criticise Tory candidate in Tamworth for walking out as winner giving her speech
In his Today interview Greg Hands was also asked if he could defend the decision taken by Andrew Cooper, the Tory candidate in Tamworth, to walk off stage at the count as soon as the Labour winner, Sarah Edwards, started giving her victory speech. Here is the clip.
This is not against the rules, and it must have happened at some point before in the past at an election, but I can’t recall a recent precedent. At the very least, it’s rude. But it also breaks an important norm because, when defeated candidates congratulate their opponents after an election, that’s a means of acknowledging the legitimacy of the result. Storming out is a step in the direction of Trump-style behaviour.
Asked if someone who behaved like this was fit to be a Conservative MP, Hands refused to criticise Cooper. Instead he said:
I wasn’t at the count in Tamworth. But what I would say is that I’ve met Andy Cooper a few times, he’s served the country [Cooper is a former soldier], he’s done very well, he’s a strong, hard-working local councillor in Tamworth, and done very, very well. So I’m not going to criticise Andy Cooper.
UPDATE: The Labour MP Chris Bryant later said Hands should have criticised Cooper.
Of course it’s puerile to storm off before the traditional victor’s speech in a by election but it also betrays a very arrogant and entitled attitude towards the voters. Sad that @GregHands couldn’t bring himself to say that about his Tamworth candidate.
Of course it’s puerile to storm off before the traditional victor’s speech in a by election but it also betrays a very arrogant and entitled attitude towards the voters. Sad that @GregHands couldn’t bring himself to say that about his Tamworth candidate.
— Chris Bryant (@RhonddaBryant) October 20, 2023
Updated
In an interview on the Today programme Greg Hands, the Conservative party chair, elaborated on his claim that “legacy issues” had hurt the party in the byelections.
When it was put to him that people did not believe the party had changed because of incidents like 24 people being fined last week because of a party for Tory activists that breached lockdown rules, Hands said the event happened three years ago. Asked if the staffers had been fired, Hands said disciplinary action was taken at the time.
And asked about Andrew Cooper, the Tory candidate in Tamworth, posting a message on Facebook suggesting jobless parents who cannot feed their children should “fuck off” if they want state help but can still pay a £30 phone bill, Hands said that was also something that happened three years ago. Hands said he would not have chosen those words himself.
Lord Frost, the former Brexit minister who is now a prominent voice calling for the party to become more rightwing, says the byelection results show the “strategy of denial” is not working. By “denial”, he means Rishi Sunak is refusing to accept how bad the party’s plight is. He has posted these on X.
The Tamworth & Mid-Beds by-elections are extremely bad for my party @Conservatives, and I don’t think it helps to suggest otherwise, as some party figures have done this morning.
The current national polls are dreadful for us but these results are even *worse*.
The very worst current polls show us holding 100-150 seats at an election. But Tamworth is our 55th safest seat.
Yes, things are different at by elections and there were probably special factors. But these results show that the national polls are broadly correct and that a strategy of denial is unlikely to work.
If your voters don’t want to come out and vote for you then you don’t win elections. It’s as simple as that.
The Tamworth & Mid-Beds by-elections are extremely bad for my party @Conservatives, and I don't think it helps to suggest otherwise, as some party figures have done this morning.
— David Frost (@DavidGHFrost) October 20, 2023
The current national polls are dreadful for us but these results are even *worse*.
The very worst…
Re-posting this thread from June as a reminder of things the Conservative Party could usefully do to bring back its voters.
(spoiler: A-level reforms and a smoking ban are not on the list)
Re-posting this thread from June as a reminder of things the Conservative Party could usefully do to bring back its voters.
— David Frost (@DavidGHFrost) October 20, 2023
(spoiler: A-level reforms and a smoking ban are not on the list) https://t.co/mmz5TcSADd
Prof John Curtice says byelection results suggest Labour on course for 1997-style landslide
On the Today programme after 8am Prof Sir John Curtice, the leading elections expert, was asked if George Osborne was right to say the Conservative party is at risk of “armageddon” at the general election (see 7.18am) on the basis of these byelection results. He did not say no.
Instead he replied:
It’s certainly reasonable to argue I did – indeed, I would have said it was reasonable to argue 24 hours ago – that the Conservative party faces the serious prospect of losing the next general election heavily, and maybe even more heavily than they did in 1997.
Let me just give you one illustration as to why one might say that. I’ve got in front of me a list of the biggest fall of Conservative votes in byelections. Most of these, like Christchurch, North Shropshire, Newbury, Somerton and Frome – these are Liberal Democratic famous gains, both old and new. But, for the most part, they didn’t really presage anything very much.
But now nestled amongst them, whilst there is the Dudley West byelection of 1994, also nestled at the top of this list are Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth, and these are big falls in byelections where the Conservatives are fighting their principal opponents, Labour.
And the real thing to take away from these byelections is, yes spectacular byelections we’ve had before, spectacular wins by the SNP in the past, spectacular gains by the Liberal Democrats but this is spectacular gains by the principal opposition party. They don’t happen anything like so often.
Nick Robinson, the presenter, pushed back, and asked Curtice if he was really saying Labour could win a landslide bigger than Tony Blair’s in 1997. “Could”, said Curtice, stressing that he was not making a prediction. But when Robinson put it to him that he maybe he was getting carried away because he had not had enough sleep, Curtice defended his analysis. He replied:
The truth is that what we’re doing here is comparing byelections with byelections. And the point is that what we are seeing in these byelections last night are results and swings to the Labour party, together with that in Selby three months ago, commensurate with what happened in byelections before the 1997 general election. And that is the crucial takeaway. These are exceptional swings to the opposition. And when they last happened, the government did lose very badly indeed.
This firms up the analysis Curtice presented on the programme earlier. (See 7.39am.)
Updated
According to Christopher Hope from GB News, Tory MPs are in shock at the results.
Letters of no confidence can be submitted in Tory leader Rishi Sunak from Wednesday, 12 months after he was appointed leader by MPs, under 1922 rules.
A Tory MP texts me: “Colleagues are in shock as they hoped the polls were wrong. Ominous silence in all MP WhatsApp groups.”
👀
— Christopher Hope📝 (@christopherhope) October 20, 2023
Letters of no confidence can be submitted in Tory leader Rishi Sunak from Wednesday, 12 months after he was appointed leader by MPs, under 1922 rules.
A Tory MP texts me: “Colleagues are in shock as they hoped the polls were wrong. Ominous silence in all MP WhatsApp groups.”
Conservative MP texts me: “Results prove he is not up to” the job “and they will move against him. He is too weak to even reshuffle.” Will Rishi Sunak go ahead with his wider ministerial reshuffle which had been pencilled in for the end of next week?
👀
— Christopher Hope📝 (@christopherhope) October 20, 2023
Conservative MP texts me: “Results prove he is not up to” the job “and they will move against him. He is too weak to even reshuffle.”
Will Rishi Sunak go ahead with his wider ministerial reshuffle which had been pencilled in for the end of next week?
Pat McFadden, Labour’s national campaign coordinator, has been doing a media round for his party this morning. He said these could not be dismissed as normal byelection losses for a governing party. “These were not constituencies that were even on our target list, so really big, important results, indicating change in politics,” he told Sky News.
He said the result showed that Rishi Sunak’s attempt to launch his party at the Tory conference had failed. “The Conservative party after 13 years in power now are incapable of change,” he said.
But he also said the public’s trust was “fragile” and that Labour still had “a lot of work to do between now and a general election”.
Starmer says Labour victory shows voters 'crying out for positive change'
Keir Starmer is at a victory rally in Mid Bedforshire, Christopher Hope from GB News reports. Starmer said the result showed voters “are crying out for positive change”.
Sir Keir Starmer: “This is an incredible night in politics. Voters are crying out for positive change. The party for the future is this changed Labour Party.” pic.twitter.com/kJsibUAInw
— Christopher Hope📝 (@christopherhope) October 20, 2023
UPDATE: Starmer said:
Every vote that you persuaded to come across to us was worth it.
This is an incredible night in politics, an incredible morning, an incredible result here for so many reasons.
It is clear that the voters here have turned their back on a failed Tory government. They’ve had enough of the decline of the last 13 years and they are crying out for change – positive change that the Labour Party can bring them.
Updated
Lib Dems claim they would win dozens of Tory seats at general election on basis of Mid Bedfordshire result
The Liberal Democrats had been hoping to win in Mid Bedfordshire, and their decision to fight the seat aggressively, in a campaign that included personal attacks on the Labour candidate, triggered criticism on the grounds that they were splitting the anti-Tory vote.
But in a statement issued overnight Daisy Cooper, the Lib Dems’ deputy leader, claimed her party had played a “crucial role” in the defeat of the Conservative candidate. She also said the Lib Dems could win dozens of Tory seats at a general election on the basis of this outcome.
Referring to the Mid Bedfordshire result, she said:
We nearly doubled our share of the vote which would see the Lib Dems win dozens of seats off the Conservatives in a general election.
The Liberal Democrats played a crucial role in defeating the Conservatives in Mid Bedfordshire, and we can play a crucial role in getting rid of this Conservative government at the next election.
I’m so proud of Emma Holland-Lindsay and her campaign which convinced thousands of lifelong Conservative voters in the villages of Mid Bedfordshire to switch to the Liberal Democrats.
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Hands suggests Johnson-era 'legacy issues' contributed to Tory byelection defeats
Greg Hands, the Conservative party chair, has said “legacy issues” contributed to the two byelection defeats last night.
That is a polite way of referring to Boris Johnson and his associates. Nadine Dorries, whose resignation triggered the Mid Bedfordshire byelection, and Chris Pincher, the former Tamworth MP, were both arch Johnson loyalists. In Mid Bedfordshire voters were angry with Dorries because of the perception that she in effect gave up working as an MP months before she quit, and because she only actually resigned 11 weeks after she said she was going. And in Tamworth’s Pincher’s involvement in a groping scandal did not help the party either.
In an interview with Sky News, Hands said that in his campaigning in both seats, he had seen on the doorstep that “people were happy with the job that Rishi Sunak is doing as prime minister”.
But he added: “There’s still a number of legacy issues in relation to the party.”
He made a similar point on BBC Breakfast, saying:
I think there’s a lot of fury about the background to the by-elections, what had caused those by-elections.
Asked whether he was considering resigning in the light of the losses, Hands said:
No, I’m going to be looking at the dynamics and the operation of those by-elections but I think we had a very good campaign, we had good candidates, we just need to find a way of incentivising Conservatives to turn up to vote next year at the general election.
Tories need to make 'far-reaching major changes' following byelection defeats, says pro-Johnson MP
Byelection defeats can be hugely destabilising for a party leader, because there is nothing that spooks MPs as much as a projection showing that they are on course to lose their seat. (See 7.10am.) Boris Johnson’s downfall probably became inevitable when the Tories lost two byelections (Tiverton and Honiton, and Wakefied) on the same night. Oliver Dowden, the then party chair, resigned, and about two weeks later Johnson was announcing that he too was quitting.
Rishi Sunak’s position is arguably stronger because he personally did not crash the Tories’ standing in the polls, and there is no obvious replacement. But he was a last resort option as PM, and party members were not enthusiastic about having him as leader.
The rightwinger Dame Andrea Jenkyns has posted a message on X (formerly Twitter) this morning saying the party now needs to make “far-reaching major changes”. She does not say what they should be.
Voter apathy is evident yet again in both the #ByElections, low turnout -20k failed to turnout in Tamworth, 24k failed to turnout in Mid Beds since the last election. We need to make far reaching major changes now to instil confidence in the Conservative voters.
Voter apathy is evident yet again in both the #ByElections, low turnout -20k failed to turnout in Tamworth, 24k failed to turnout in Mid Beds since the last election. We need to make far reaching major changes now to instil confidence in the Conservative voters.
— Andrea Jenkyns MP 🇬🇧 (@andreajenkyns) October 20, 2023
Jenkyns, a Boris Johnson supporter (she got her damehood in his resignation honours), had a majority of 11,267 in Morley and Outwood at the last election. But it’s a seat held by Labour’s Ed Balls until 2015, and she would be out on the basis of the swings to Labour recorded last night.
UPDATE: A reader points out that at the next election the constituency is being renamed and changing its boundaries, in a way that may make it more Labour.
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Tory chair Greg Hands says, even though his party lost, he can't see 'any enthusiasm for Labour'
Greg Hands, the Conservative party chair, is doing an interview round this morning. After results like this, it is always a challenge for a politician from the losing party finding something positive to say, and Hands told Times Radio that there was no enthusiasm amongst the electorate for the Labour party. He said:
I don’t think a single person came to the door to say that despite all the problems people are facing, that Labour and Sir Keir Starmer were the solution to their problems.
So I don’t see any enthusiasm for Labour but clearly there’s been a lot of, if you like, background circumstances in those two by-elections that have also made the job difficult for us.
But clearly we need to reflect on that and we need to continue to deliver against our priorities and make sure that people see that Rishi Sunak is doing a very good job as prime minister.
Photograph: Justin Tallis/AFP/Getty Images
Prof Sir John Curtice told the Today programme that there were two points in this parliament when Tory support rapidly switched to Labour: when the first Partygate revelations came out, and Liz Truss’s mini-budget. He said you could “reasonably argue” that those two events were more important in explaining why Labour is now doing so well than Keir Starmer’s changes to the Labour party. But if Starmer had not changed Labour, then the party might not have benefited to the extent it has, he said.
Curtice ended his interview with a big ‘what if?’
Let us say those Partygate happenings had never happened, or at least we had never heard of them. And as a result Boris Johnson was still in 10 Downing Street today. Would Labour be doing as well in the polls as they are at present?
Last night, before the byelection results were declared, CCHQ issued a damage limitation briefing to journalists saying it was normal for governments to lose byelections. A party spokesperson said:
These were always going to be challenging by-elections and the rule of thumb is that governments don’t win them. We have seen little to no enthusiasm for Sir Keir Starmer who voters can see stands for nothing and always puts short term political gain first.
But Prof Sir John Curtice, the leading elections expert, told the Today programme that these results could not be dismissed as standard byelection losses. He explained:
The truth is these were not ordinary government losses. The swing in Tamworth, at just below 24%, is the second biggest swing from Conservative to Labour in postwar electoral history. And at just over 20% the swing in Mid Bedfordshire is also in the top 10.
No government has previously lost to the principal opposition party a seat as safe as Tamworth. You have to go back to 1977 and the Ashfield byelection to find an equivalent.
If you want to look at the precedent – what’s the last time that we had swings of this order? The answer is the parliament of 92 to 97. There were four byelection in that in which Labour got swings of over 20% from the Conservatives, and we all know how that ended.
And, by the way, those swings also occured in byelections in which the fall in turnout was often greater than it was in these two byelections.
So the point is we are not looking at ordinary byelection losses. We are looking at exceptional swings, and swings that for the only real precedent is not a very happy one for the Conservatives.
Curtice conceded that Starmer is not as popular as Tony Blair was ahead of the 1997 general election. But he pointed out that the 12 point rise in Labour’s vote in the Mid Bedfordshire byelection matches the 12 point increase in Labour’s vote in the national opinion polls. He went on:
You can argue maybe there isn’t as much enthusiasm for Labour as there is discontent with the conservatives. But, nevertheless, when Labour have been challenged, they still managed to win that challenge.
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George Osborne says Tories at risk of 'armageddon' at general election on basis of Mid Beds defeat
George Osborne, the former Tory chancellor, says the Tories are at risk of “armageddon” at the general election on the basis of these byelection results.
In our latest episode of Political Currency - available now - @edballs and I discuss why losing both the Tamworth and Mid Beds by-elections is a political earthquake and could mean armageddon for the Tories
In our latest episode of Political Currency - available now - @edballs and I discuss why losing both the Tamworth and Mid Beds by-elections is a political earthquake and could mean armageddon for the Tories https://t.co/w5g1qICaGY
— George Osborne (@George_Osborne) October 20, 2023
In fact, in this tweet, posted this morning, Osborne seems to be rowing back a bit, because he is saying this could mean electoral armageddon. In the latest edition of his Political Currency podcast with Ed Balls, which was released yesterday, before the byelection results were out, Osborne said losing Mid Bedfordshire would mean armageddon for the party. He said:
Tamworth was hard and the MP resigned under a cloud, and this is the kind of seat in the 1980s and early 90s, which Tories did lose. Tory governments lost and then still won general elections. But if they’ve also lost Mid Bedfordshire, Armageddon is coming for the Tory party.
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Keir Starmer says Labour is “redrawing the political map”. (See 6.56am.) This graphic, from Election Maps UK, illustrates what he means. It shows what the result of a general election would be if there were an election now with Labour achieving the same swing from the Tories it achieved in the Mid Bedfordshire byelection.
🚨 *JUST FOR FUN ALARM* 🚨
— Election Maps UK (@ElectionMapsUK) October 20, 2023
How GB would vote if the Mid Bedfordshire By-Election swing was repeated across the country:
LAB: 480 (+284)
LDM: 104 (+96)
CON: 20 (-356)
SNP: 23 (-25)
PLC: 3 (+1)
GRN: 1 (=)
Labour Majority: 310
Changes w/ GE2019 Notional. pic.twitter.com/J1KraiYgZi
In political circles, it is conventional to ignore projections like this on the grounds that byelection swings are exceptional, and that election results tend to be much closer than advance polling suggests. Election Maps has headlined this with a reference to “just a bit of fun”, the phrase that the swingometer guru Peter Snow always used to use on the BBC when presenting projections like this.
But you can apply the “just a bit of fun” disregard too strictly. In 1997 politicians, commentators and the public at large were all staggered by the size of Tony Blair’s majority. All the polling had been pointing to an enormous landslide, but people found it impossible to take seriously (including Tony Blair, who was still worried he might lose on election night, as Kiran Stacey reports in his recent podcast about that campaign, which is well worth a listen).
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Starmer says 'phenomenal' byelection results are 'redrawing the political map'
Keir Starmer issued this statement overnight about his party’s double by-election win.
These are phenomenal results that show Labour is back in the service of working people and redrawing the political map.
Winning in these Tory strongholds shows that people overwhelmingly want change and they’re ready to put their faith in our changed Labour party to deliver it.
Voters across Mid Bedfordshire, Tamworth and Britain want a Labour government determined to deliver for working people, with a proper plan to rebuild our country.
To those who have given us their trust, and those considering doing so, Labour will spend every day acting in your interests and focused on your priorities. Labour will give Britain its future back.
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Mid Bedfordshire byelection results in full
And here are the Mid Bedfordshire results in full, again from PA Media.
Lab gain from C
Alistair Strathern (Lab) 13,872 (34.07%, +12.39%)
Festus Akinbusoye (C) 12,680 (31.14%, -28.65%)
Emma Holland-Lindsay (LD) 9,420 (23.13%, +10.51%)
Gareth Mackey (Ind) 1,865 (4.58%, +3.33%)
Dave Holland (Reform) 1,487 (3.65%)
Cade Sibley (Green) 732 (1.80%, -2.03%)
Ann Kelly (Loony) 249 (0.61%, -0.22%)
Antonio Vitiello (Eng Dem) 107 (0.26%)
Sid Cordle (CPA) 101 (0.25%)
Alan Victor (True) 93 (0.23%)
Alberto Thomas (Heritage) 63 (0.15%)
Emperor of India Prince Ankit Love (ND) 27 (0.07%)
Chris Rooney (Mainstream) 24 (0.06%)
Lab maj 1,192 (2.93%)
20.52% swing C to Lab
Electorate 92,578; Turnout 40,720 (43.98%, -29.73%)
2019: C maj 24,664 (38.11%) – Turnout 64,717 (73.71%)
Dorries (C) 38,692 (59.79%); Meades (Lab) 14,028 (21.68%); McGann (LD) 8,171 (12.63%); Ellis (Green) 2,478 (3.83%); Victor (Ind) 812 (1.25%); Kelly (Loony) 536 (0.83%)
Tamworth byelection results in full
Here are the full results from Tamworth, from PA Media.
Lab gain from C
Sarah Edwards (Lab) 11,719 (45.80%, +22.12%)
Andy Cooper (C) 10,403 (40.66%, -25.66%)
Ian Cooper (Reform) 1,373 (5.37%)
Ashlea Simon (Britain 1st) 580 (2.27%)
Robert Bilcliff (UKIP) 436 (1.70%)
Sue Howarth (Green) 417 (1.63%, -0.40%)
Sunny Virk (LD) 417 (1.63%, -3.64%)
Howling Laud Hope (Loony) 155 (0.61%)
Peter Longman (ND) 86 (0.34%)
Lab maj 1,316 (5.14%)
23.89% swing C to Lab
Electorate 71,321; Turnout 25,586 (35.87%, -28.47%)
2019 result: C maj 19,634 (42.63%) – Turnout 46,056 (64.34%) Pincher (C) 30,542 (66.31%); Bain (Lab Co-op) 10,908 (23.68%); Wheway (LD) 2,426 (5.27%); Tilley (Green) 935 (2.03%); Bilcliff (UKIP) 814 (1.77%); Wright (Ind) 431 (0.94%)
Labour hails ‘biggest byelection shock in history’, taking Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire from Tories
Good morning. The word “historic” is overused by journalists, but even the most curmudgeonly subeditor is not going to object to it being allowed out of the cupboard this morning after Labour two byelection gains in what the party described as “the biggest byelection shock in history”.
The results came within an hour of each other. Shortly before 3am, Labour won Tamworth, the previously safe Tory seat in Staffordshire where the byelection was caused by the resignation of the former deputy chief whip over a groping scandal that contributed to the downfall of Boris Johnson. Labour won with a swing of 23.9 percentage points, the second largest swing the party has achieved in a byelection since 1945.
And less than an hour later it won Mid Bedfordshire, the seat previously held by Nadine Dorries (who resigned in a huff because she did not get a peerage in Johnson’s resignation honours). The swing here was “only” 20.5 points, but Dorries had a majority of 24,664 and, in numerical terms, this is the largest majority ever overturned in a byelection.
The victory in Mid Bedfordshire is particularly sweet for Labour because the Liberal Democrats were fighting the seat hard (Tamworth was in effect just a simple Labour-Tory contest), and there had been speculation that, with the opposition vote split, the Tories might hold the seat.
Peter Kyle, the shadow science secretary who ran the campaign in Mid Bedfordshire, said:
This is a huge night. Make no bones about it, this is a political earthquake that has unfolded here.
This is the biggest by-election shock in history, it is a political earthquake and it is one that is sending an unignorable message to Westminster and to Rishi Sunak that this country deserves better.
Here is Sammy Gecsoyler’s story about the Tamworth result.
And here is Kevin Rawlinson’s story about Mid Bedfordshire.
I will be covering all the reaction to the results as the day goes on.
And this morning Rishi Sunak is continuing his tour of the Middle East with a visit to Egypt. I will be covering that too.
Comments will go on at 7am. But if you want to contact me, do try the “send us a message” feature. You’ll see it just below the byline – on the left of the screen, if you are reading on a laptop or a desktop. This is for people who want to message me directly. I find it very useful when people message to point out errors (even typos – no mistake is too small to correct). Often I find your questions very interesting, too. I can’t promise to reply to them all, but I will try to reply to as many as I can, either in the comments below the line; privately (if you leave an email address and that seems more appropriate); or in the main blog, if I think it is a topic of wide interest.
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