Voters head to the polls in the Birmingham Erdington by-election today in the first ballot test for Boris Johnson's Tories since the Partygate scandal broke.
Bookies are predicting Labour will comfortably hold the West Midlands constituency, after the unexpected death of their MP Jack Dromey in January triggered a by-election
Paulette Hamilton, a former nurse and mum-of-five, is hopeful of building on Labour's 3,601-vote majority from 2019 and if elected would be Birmingham's first ever black MP.
Activists have braved four named storms in a bid to drum up support for the city councillor, who has vowed to press the Government over its Levelling Up plans.
Keir Starmer, who has visited the seat several times on the campaign trail, has been enjoying a boost in the polls after the Prime Minister's popularity was damaged by rule-busting parties at Downing Street during lockdown and Tory sleaze.
Most recent polls put Labour between four and six percentage points ahead of the Conservatives.
But some Tories believe their candidate, Robert Alden, has an outside chance of pulling off a shock win. The leader of Birmingham City Council's Conservative group has stood for the seat in every election since 2010.
Labour insiders still nervous after losing the Red Wall seat of Hartlepool admit turnout in the constituency, which has historically been very low in the area, and a large number of independent candidates makes the result hard to predict.
She said: “This is such an important election for the people of Erdington, Castle Vale and Kingstanding. We’ve had two bids for levelling up funding rejected by the Tory government, yet Bromsgrove, one of the richest areas in the country, has secured millions.
“This area has been ignored by the Tories for too long, and I hope to be a strong voice for Erdington and will challenge the Government on lack of investment and regional health inequalities, if I am fortunate enough to be elected this Thursday.”
Tory MPs called for Ms Hamilton to be suspended on the eve of the by-election after comments she made at a 2015 event were unearthed by GB News.
She was recorded as saying: “The postal vote is the way some of our ethnic minority communities actually lock it down. Because what they do is whole families just have the postal vote.
“Whoever comes in says hold this one, tick, postal vote goes back, and in one household we can have eight votes and it’s locked down.”
She also said: “You talk about the bullet or the vote, I’m not sure, although I believe in the vote, and I believe in our right to use that vote or destroy that vote, I’m not sure that we will get what we really deserve in this country using the vote.
“But I don’t know if we are a strong enough group to get what we want to get if we have an uprising. I think that we will be quashed in such a way that we would lose a generation of our young people. So I am very torn.”
Labour backed its candidate, saying: “Paulette Hamilton is arguing for better representation for the black community in public life, and as she is campaigning to become Birmingham's first black MP she has a point"
Activists say anti-social behaviour, crime and improving the area's high streets were issues that came up on the doorstep.
Ms Hamilton also faces competition in the strongly pro-Brexit seat from Reform's Jack Brookes, Lib Dem Lee Dargue, a number of independents and the Green Party's Siobhan Harper-Nunes. There are 12 candidates in total.
The Lib Dems are said to be putting few resources into the largely industrial seat, where they have picked up little support in previous elections.
Tory activists say their campaign is aimed at protecting the party's vote share in the area and talk down chances of a victory.
Mr Alden said: “My plan is about improving life for people in Erdington and Kingstanding by providing high-quality, stable jobs and securing new investment in our local high streets.”
Results of the by-election are expected to be announced in the early hours of Friday.
