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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Politics
Andrew Sparrow

Transport minister refuses to say if government still committed to extending HS2 to Manchester and Euston – as it happened

An artist’s impression of an early visualisation of an HS2 train.
An artist’s impression of an early visualisation of an HS2 train. Photograph: HS2/PA

Experts says Starmer won't be able to get 'much better' Brexit deal with EU while UK remains outside single market

EU policy experts are sceptical of the significance of Keir Starmer’s declaration that he wants to get a “much better” Brexit deal with the EU.

Wolfgang Münchau, director of Eurointelligence, a news service providing news and analysis relating to the EU, has written a blog saying a better deal is not available. He says:

Probably the biggest delusion yet to be unpicked is Sir Keir’s repeated assertion that there is a better deal with the EU out there. This is simply not true. There was a lot of vindictive commentary from the EU during the entire Brexit process, but the deal that was eventually agreed was a reasonable third-country trade deal. The two big remaining issues at the time have since been resolved: Northern Ireland and Britain’s associate membership of the EU Horizon’s science programme. If your bottom line is that you do not wish to rejoin the single market and the customs union, there really is not a lot more out there.

On X/Twitter Münchau has called Starmer’s declaration “silly”.

John Springford, deputy director of the Centre for European Reform thinktank, also thinks that Starmer would find it hard to negotiate changes that would make a big difference. He posted a message on X/Twitter saying:

More cakism? Bolt-ons to the FTA with the EU isn’t going to make much difference to the economy.

And Springford told the Evening Standard:

Some bolt-ons to the EU-UK trade deal would help some sectors, like agriculture.

But they wouldn’t change the problem: a free trade agreement is much less effective than a single market and customs union. Starmer says he wants a closer EU relationship to improve growth, but his red lines on the EU make it very hard to achieve that.

Rem Korteweg, a fellow at the Clingendael Institute, a Dutch international relations thinktank, says a major rewrite of the deal is unlikely.

“Major rewrite” doing a lot of work here

A vet agreement & prof qualifications recognition won’t lead to fundamental changes in EU-UK trading

But I guess Starmer could sell it as a “closer” relationship

(I wonder what he will offer EU in return tho)

John O’Brennan, professor of European integration at Maynooth University in Ireland, also think Starmer is being cakeist.

The British elite delusions about the relationship with the EU go far beyond the Conservative Party.

Keir Starmer is advocating another kind of cakeism while in fact he is locking the U.K. into a Swiss type relationship with the EU which is completely asymmetric. Baffling.

Mujtaba Rahman, the Brexit expert at the Eurasia Group, says Starmer will have to renegotiate the deal.

Of course @UKLabour @Keir_Starmer will have to fix the Brexit deal

Frost was totally out of his depth, and negotiated a shite deal that has totally shafted large parts of the UK economy

That was never going to be a sustainable equilibrium

But Anand Menon, who runs UK in a Changing Europe, an academic thinktank, thinks that Britain will find it hard to secure big improvements while it remains outside the single market.

A veterinary agreement is not going to ‘fix’ the economic impact of Johnson’s Brexit deal. The point about Starmer is that he has decided being outside the Single Market should be the new equilibrium.

Updated

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