Scottish Labour’s Michael Shanks has won the Rutherglen and Hamilton West byelection in an overwhelming victory over the SNP that his party leadership declared “seismic”, and a clear demonstration that Scotland could lead the way in delivering a Labour government at Westminster at the coming general election.
In a result that exceeded Scottish Labour expectation, Shanks beat his closest rival, the SNP’s Katy Loudon, by 17,845 votes to 8,399 – a majority of 9,446 and a resounding swing of more than 20 percentage points.
The result marked a “seismic night in Scotland”, and proved that “Scottish politics has fundamentally changed”, said the Scottish Labour leader, Anas Sarwar. Voters were sending “a very clear message that they are sick of two tired, failing, incompetent governments”, he added.
Stephen Flynn, the SNP’s Westminster leader, said the party needed to carry out an urgent postmortem to investigate why it had lost so comprehensively, and admitted on BBC Radio Scotland that some SNP voters switched sides in the byelection.
He said the party needed to respond better to the cost of living crisis – the overarching issue in the byelection. “I don’t think you need to do any focus groups to realise that people are skint,” he said.
Sarwar said it was “a clear indication that Scotland will lead the way in delivering a Labour government”, after analysts suggested that a similar swing at a general election could result in Scottish Labour winning more than 40 seats across Scotland.
Speaking on BBC Breakfast on Friday morning, Sarwar said Scottish Labour was “targeting significant gains” at the next general election. He said: “I’m very clear that Scotland will lead the way in delivering a UK-wide Labour government.
“What you’ve seen happen in Scotland overnight is people move away and reject the politics of division, of chaos and incompetence, and instead express a desire for the fresh start, express a desire for change. They can now see that Scottish Labour is the vehicle for that change.”
He also credited the leadership of the UK Labour leader, Keir Starmer, for contributing to the victory, adding: “The result that we had overnight would not have been possible if Keir Starmer hadn’t changed the UK Labour party.”
Starmer himself called it “a seismic result”.
He said: “I have always said that winning back the trust of people in Scotland is essential. Tonight’s victory is the culmination of three and a half years of hard work and humility on that journey.”
A huge congratulations to our fantastic candidate Michael Shanks!
— Scottish Labour (@ScottishLabour) October 6, 2023
You led a positive campaign focused on the priorities of people across Rutherglen & Hamilton West.
We know you’ll do an amazing job representing this constituency.
Scottish Labour - the change Scotland needs. pic.twitter.com/AoDumtjaGS
Scotland’s first recall byelection was also Humza Yousaf’s first major electoral test since he became SNP leader and first minister in the spring.
Responding to the “disappointing” result, he said the party would “reflect on what we have to do to regain the trust of the people of Rutherglen and Hamilton West”.
Yousaf added that the “circumstances of this byelection were always very difficult for us”. The contest was triggered after constituents voted for the Covid rule-breaking former SNP MP Margaret Ferrier to be removed from her seat.
He also partly blamed the collapse in Tory support – the Scottish Conservative candidate lost his deposit on the night – which he said “went straight to Labour”.
Speaking to the BBC on Friday morning, Flynn said the SNP had lost byelections and Westminster seats before yet had recovered. He added: “The party needs to come together as a collective and reflect on the result, and make sure we have a clear path to victory next year.”
The nationalists had struggled to motivate activists during the campaign, with the party still reeling from a divisive leadership contest after the resignation of Nicola Sturgeon and arrests of senior figures as part of the continuing police investigation into the party’s finances.
However, turnout on Thursday was low, at 37.19% compared with 66.5% at the last general election in 2019, in the seat to the south-east of Glasgow that has changed hands four times between the SNP and Labour since 2010.
The victory provides Starmer with a significant boost days before Labour gathers for its autumn conference in Liverpool. Senior figures are convinced that revived fortunes in Scotland can send a message UK-wide about the party’s electability before the next general election.
Shanks, speaking after the win was announced, said: “People need change from governments that have too often been distracted.
“People are once again listening to the Scottish Labour party … Change is possible.”
Both candidates centred their campaigns around the cost of living crisis, with Shanks criticising the SNP government at Holyrood’s record on public services and Loudon accusing UK Labour of “colluding” with Tory policies such as the two-child benefit cap.
Polls suggest the SNP’s dominance is diminishing, as the party struggles with questions of transparency and governance linked to the police investigation into its financial conduct, with Labour the beneficiary.
With no clear route to a second independence referendum and the public overwhelmed by cost of living concerns, there are strong indications that Scottish voters are less likely to choose which party to back based on their constitutional preferences.
