End of day summary …
I am just about to wrap up the blog for the day. Here are the headlines …
The UK economy fell into recession at the end of last year as hard-pressed households cut back on spending amid the cost of living crisis, in a heavy blow to Rishi Sunak’s promise to kickstart growth. The Office for National Statistics said gross domestic product (GDP) fell by a larger than expected 0.3% in the three months to December after a decline in all main sectors of the economy and collapse in retail sales in the run-up to Christmas.
Labour’s shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves said that today’s figures demonstrate that “Britain remains trapped in a spiral of economic decline” under Sunak’s government, adding that “we are going backwards” because his economic plan “is not working”.
Polls are open in the Wellingborough and Kingswood byelections, seen as a final chance for the prime minister to buck predictions that his party is heading for a landslide defeat at the next general election. Results should be due between 2am and 5am. Labour is widely seen as favourite to win both seats.
The newly-reconvened executive in Northern Ireland has agreed an allocation of £685m for public sector pay in the country. First minister Michelle O’Neil (Sinn Féin) said “We were determined to make some early decisions and I’m glad that we’ve been able to do that”. Deputy first minister Emma Little-Pengelly (DUP) said “We know that there’s big challenges within our public services but, of course, we must recognise that the people who deliver those public services, our public servants, deserve fair pay.”
Data from the department for energy security and net zero shows that 13% of households in England were in fuel poverty last year. The figures also reveal that well over a third (36.4%) of English households, some 8.91 million, were forced to spend more than 10% of their income, after housing costs, on energy bills.
Annual profits at British Gas have soared nearly tenfold, while its parent company announced another £144m payout to shareholders.
Areas across England where the highest proportion of ethnic minorities live have the poorest access to GPs, with experts attributing this disparity to an outdated model being used to determine funding.
Sadiq Khan unveiled new names for six London Overground lines, including the Windrush line and the Suffragette line.
A woman is facing deportation, and being separated from her husband and 10-year-old son, despite a court ruling that the family has the right to live together in the UK. Malwattege Peiris has been told by the Home Office to leave the UK despite the court ruling in her favour
The West Midlands police and crime commissioner (PCC) Simon Foster has announced he is taking the home secretary to court over plans to scrap his role and transfer his powers to the region’s mayor.
Britain’s public spending watchdog has launched an investigation into risks and costs at Sellafield, the UK’s biggest nuclear waste dump.
That is it from me, Martin Belam, today. I will be back with you bright and early tomorrow, as we will have an early UK politics live blog to take in instant reaction to the byelection results. Thank you for all your comments today. I do always try and read all of them, and often find them helpful. See you tomorrow.
I mentioned earlier that the newly-reconvened executive in Northern Ireland has agreed an allocation of money for public sector pay in the country. The Belfast Telegraph is carrying some quotes from first minister Michelle O’Neil (Sinn Féin) from a press conference in Stormont. She told the media:
We were determined to make some early decision and I’m glad that we’ve been able to do that. I’m delighted to say that today the executive, on the recommendation of the finance minister, has decided to allocate over £685m which will allow conversations now to commence between employers and trade unions in relation to public sector pay.
Deputy first minister Emma Little-Pengelly (DUP) said:
The people of Northern Ireland deserve public services that work for them. We know that there’s big challenges within our public services but, of course, we must recognise that the people who deliver those public services, our public servants, deserve fair pay. And that’s why this step today of the allocation of £685m for the purposes of negotiation, and hopefully quick settlement, is a really welcome one.
Speaking at the same event, finance minister Caoimhe Archibald (Sinn Féin) said “I think it’s also a good signal coming from this executive that we are working together to deliver for people in the most challenging of circumstances.”
It is slightly more foreign relations than domestic politics, but my colleague, our diplomatic editor Patrick Wintour, has written an interesting analysis piece here about David Cameron’s unexpected return to frontline politics as foreign secretary.
Liberal Democrat analysis of the latest NHS data shows that more people waited longer to see their GP in 2023 than the previous year in England.
PA Media reports the analysis showed the number of appointments where people waited four weeks or longer for a GP last year rose by 38% on 2022’s figures to 17.6 million.
Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey said:
Patients across the country are in a desperate position. It has become commonplace to struggle day after day to get a GP appointment, leaving people in pain and discomfort. What this Conservative government has done to our NHS is nothing short of scandalous.
It should be a given that people can see their GP when they need to, not a struggle. That is why the Liberal Democrats are calling for a legal right for all patients to see their GP within seven days, and 24 hours if in urgent need.
We have another reported dog at a polling station. A reader alerted me to this via email, and informed me that the dog is called Maggie.
#dogsatpollingstations #WellingboroughByElection pic.twitter.com/XD5XJPi4BM
— David Muller (@DavidMu30761326) February 15, 2024
The Guardian has not independently verified the date and location the photograph was taken, but my own miniature dachshund has barked at the picture when shown it.
Updated
Our Whitehall editor Rowena Mason has this analysis of Rachel Reeves’ speech this morning
The shadow chancellor appeared sure-footed in the face of questions about the Rochdale candidate furore, saying the comments had been made in a private meeting and that Labour could not know everything about what was said behind closed doors.
She also batted away queries about what she would do if standing in Jeremy Hunt’s shoes for the budget next month, apart from saying Labour would go for growth with planning reforms and a modern industrial strategy.
The question remains about how Labour’s economic offering differs from the Tories’ now that the party has got rid of the £28bn green investment pledge, which, while the subject of political attacks, had polled well with the public.
Reeves made noises about matching Tory tax cuts, saying she had “made no secret of the fact that [she] wants taxes on working people to be lower” as long as the money was there to make that possible. But with Sunak and Hunt believed to be pencilling in public spending cuts to fund tax cuts, that could put Labour in a difficult position over whether to follow suit.
The shadow chancellor referred to “hard choices ahead”, but went no further in indicating how Labour would deal with a scenario where the Tories go to the polls promising tax cuts on the back of fresh austerity.
Read more of Rowena Mason’s analysis here: ‘Rishi’s recession’: Reeves seizes her moment to take the economic high ground
The West Midlands police and crime commissioner (PCC) has announced he is taking the home secretary to court over plans to scrap his role and transfer his powers to the region’s mayor.
Simon Foster, who took over as PCC in the West Midlands in 2021, said he had applied for a judicial review to challenge what he described as a “hostile takeover of PCC powers by the mayor”.
Read more of Jessica Murray’s report here: West Midlands PCC applies for judicial review over scrapping of his role
Feryal Clark, the Labour MP for Enfield North, has posted some pictures of the campaign trail in Wellingborough, where she has been campaigning in the byelection for Labour’s candidate Gen Kitchen.
Enjoying talking to voters in #Wellingborough for the lovely @Gvkitchen
— Feryal Clark MP (@FeryalClark) February 15, 2024
Don’t forget to take your ID when you go to vote #VoteLabour #WellingboroughByElection pic.twitter.com/hZediPHV2p
Yvette Cooper has been to the constituency too.
Out campaigning for the brilliant @Gvkitchen in #WellingboroughByElection - Gen is campaigning on support for the town centre, tackling knife crime, NHS waiting times & more. After 14 years of Tory failure & chaos, time for a change & for a fresh start for #Wellingborough pic.twitter.com/RQVSay0xfQ
— Yvette Cooper (@YvetteCooperMP) February 15, 2024
Updated
Social media has been having some bittersweet mirth today reminding us that seven years ago Boris Johnson promised that he would apologise on national TV if Brexit were to lead the country into a recession.
As Jessica Elgot reported for us at the time:
Boris Johnson has said he will apologise on national television if Britain were to plunge into recession after a vote to leave the EU.
His promise came in response to a caller to radio station LBC, who asked the former mayor of London: “If we Brexit and we go into recession, would you have the political courage, to go on TV … and say sorry, I made it wrong and I apologise?”
Johnson promised he would apologise were the UK to slide into recession post-Brexit. “Of course I will,” he said. “I’m not certain what my political career holds anyway. This is far more important than any individual political career.
“I don’t think London has anything to fear from coming out of the EU, and neither does Britain. When has our country ever gone wrong by believing in ourselves?”
In February 2023 a report by the Centre for European Reform (CER) in December claimed that Britain’s economy was 5.5% smaller than it would have been had it remained inside the EU.
Tory former chancellor Lord Lamont said he thought there was room for tax cuts in the March Budget.
He told BBC Radio 4’s World at One: “I do think tax cuts have to be responsible. I think there is probably some headroom that has been created by very strong growth in tax revenues, particularly as a result of the freezing of the tax thresholds for such a long period.
“There may be some headroom. I think looking longer term though, any tax cuts have to be matched by tight control of public spending, probably financed by reductions in public spending.”
On the outlook for the UK after it slipped into recession, Lord Lamont said: “I think people ought to be realistic about this. We have an almost perfect storm. We are coming through it, I think there is light at the end of the tunnel now and we just need to hold our nerve.”
I have been looking, but I am yet to see another picture of a dog at a polling station today from either the Wellingborough or Kingswood byelections, which is disappointing to say the least. There is a photo though of Keir Starmer doing phone canvassing with Feargal Sharkey at Labour HQ in London.
I am just handing over to Charlie Moloney for an hour while I have a break.
Anna Isaac and Alex Lawson report for the Guardian
Britain’s public spending watchdog has launched an investigation into risks and costs at Sellafield, the UK’s biggest nuclear waste dump.
The National Audit Office (NAO), which scrutinises the use of public funds, has announced it will examine whether the Cumbria site is managing and prioritising the risks and hazards of the site effectively as well as deploying resources appropriately and continuing to improve its project management.
The findings of its investigation are expected to be published this autumn.
Cameron: I am not lecturing or telling our 'American friends' what to do over Ukraine funding
Foreign secretary David Cameron has said he is not lecturing or telling “American friends” what to do over funding to Ukraine.
Speaking in Poland, Cameron said a US congress vote was “crucial” to helping Ukraine succeed in the war:
We really do want to see Congress pass that money to support Ukraine economically, but crucially militarily in the months ahead. We have to do everything we can to make sure that Ukraine can succeed in this year and beyond.
We must not let Putin think he can out-wait us or last us out, and that’s why this vote in Congress is so crucial. And I say this as someone who is not wanting in any way to lecture American friends, or tell American friends what to do.
I say it as someone who has a deep and abiding love of the United States – of their democracy, of their belief in freedom – but as someone who really believes in the importance of our alliance.
The comments come just a day after Republican right-winger Marjorie Taylor Greene told Cameron to “look after his own country” and “kiss my ass” after the former prime minister called on Washington to vote through a package of aid for Ukraine for the sake of global security.
While making a media appearance this morning about the rebranding of six London Overground lines with new names – see this story here from my colleague Gwyn Topham – London mayor Sadiq Khan was asked about the suspension of two prospective Labour candidates over accusations of antisemitism.
He gave a lengthy and thoughtful response to Sky News on the issue, saying:
What you have to bear in mind is the sensitivities of how people across the country are feeling, those from a Jewish background, those from a Muslim background. Language matters.
And when I speak to Jewish Londoners, the way they receive some of these things, they feel scared. They feel frightened. And sometimes this language can be used as a code and I think we’ve got to be cognizant of that, particularly if you aspire to be a member of parliament, or you’ve been a member of parliament.
So I’m only going on what I’ve read in the media, so I’ve not seen the transcripts. But as far as I’m concerned, that sort of language isn’t acceptable, and it certainly shouldn’t be acceptable in a party like mine.
At the end of the interview he then went on to say that he was proud to be in a party that was anti-racist and that was tackling antisemitism. However he stumbled over his words and misspoke, saying the party was “proud to be both anti racist, but also antisemitic”. He immediately corrected himself.
About ninety minutes ago the Conservative party issued on social media a clipped four second excerpt of the interview in which he just says the words “a party like mine that is proud to be anti-racist and antisemitic” with a caption claiming “Sadiq Khan says the quiet part out loud”, having edited off Khan’s final words.
The social media post has been widely criticised as being misleading, with Walthamstow Labour councillor Miriam Mirwitch, who is national secretary of the Jewish Labour Movement, commenting:
Sadiq Khan clearly misspoke and you’ve selectively cut the clip short to misrepresent what he said. Both our mayor and the Labour party are working hard to fight antisemitism. Your cynical political point scoring here will only hurt British Jews like me.
Khan is shortly facing re-election up against a Conservative candidate, Susan Hall, who has been shown to have engaged with Islamophobic tropes about the current mayor on social media.
Updated
Northern Ireland executive agrees pay award for public sector workers
Northern Ireland’s first minister Michelle O’Neill has posted to social media to say that the newly reconvened executive in Stormont has “agreed £688m to deliver a fair pay award for public sector workers.”
The Executive has agreed £688 Million to deliver a fair pay award for public sector workers.
— Michelle O’Neill (@moneillsf) February 15, 2024
All Ministers will work to ensure it gets into the pockets of workers and families as quickly as possible.
I would like to thank Finance Minister Dr @CArchibald_SF for bringing the…
More details soon …
Reeves: 'Britain remains trapped in a spiral of economic decline' under Rishi Sunak's government
Labour’s shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves has said that today’s figures showing that the economy has gone into recession demonstrate that “Britain remains trapped in a spiral of economic decline” under Rishi Sunak’s government, adding that “we are going backwards” because his economic plan “is not working”.
Speaking at a press conference in central London, Reeves opened her speech by saying:
This is deeply worrying news for families struggling to make ends meet, and for businesses. These are provisional figures, they may change. But it is absolutely clear that Britain remains trapped in a spiral of economic decline.
This isn’t a question of lines on a graph. It’s about the health of our high streets, about growing businesses, secure well paid jobs and money in the pockets of working people.
The British people did not need to see these figures today to tell them that the economy is not working, that we are in the midst of a cost of living crisis, and that they are worse off.
But these numbers shine a spotlight on the scale of that failure.
The confirmation of recession exposes a government and a prime minister completely out of touch with the realities on the ground. A government that for too long has looked on economic failure with complacency, content to be the managers of decline.
Rishi Sunak claims that he has a plan, but the plan is not working. He claims that the economy has turned a corner, but the economy is shrinking. He claims he doesn’t want to take us back to square one. But we are going backwards.
There is a clip of her speaking here, via Sky News:
"Rishi Sunak claims that he has a plan. But his plan is not working. He claims that the economy has turned a corner, but the economy is shrinking."
— Sky News (@SkyNews) February 15, 2024
Shadow Chancellor @RachelReevesMP holds a news conference as the UK enters a recessionhttps://t.co/RqxPlsUCTK
📺 Sky 501 pic.twitter.com/g0GrM0bGk4
Yesterday former Labour leader Neil Kinnock endorsed Vaughan Gething to be the next Labour leader in Wales and first minister there. This morning Gething has shared a video of Kinnock’s endorsement.
Neil Kinnock is a giant of our movement.
— Vaughan Gething (@vaughangething) February 15, 2024
Few people know so acutely what it takes to lead our party. I'm honoured to have his support.
When your ballot arrives from tomorrow, you have the power to help us build our future, together - for Wales, for Labour, for you. pic.twitter.com/1JdKwTDiPL
Rachel Reeves has said that Labour’s support for tax cuts in the forthcoming March budget is dependent on the state of the nation’s finances at the time.
She told the media at her press conference:
That [support] depends on the state of the public finances and the projections set out by the OBR.
I objected to the increases in National Insurance when Rishi Sunak tried to increase them as chancellor because I thought it was wrong to increase taxes on working people in the middle of a cost of living crisis.
We supported the cuts to National Insurance when the Government finally got around to doing that, but I will never make any commitments either around spending increases or tax cuts without being able to say where the money is going to come from.
A little bit before Rachel Reeves was giving her speech on Labour’s plan for economic growth – this does feel very much like I am doing a parallel business live blog today – Jeremy Hunt was continuing his media round. On GB News he said the UK will have “the most competitive business taxes in the world”.
PA Media quote him saying:
I have not changed my position, our future as a country is to have the most competitive business taxes in the world, and that’s why in the autumn statement we cut corporation tax.”
I’ve never hidden from the fact that I had to increase taxes in my first autumn statement as Chancellor but nor have I ever said anything other than I think the most successful economies in the long run have lighter taxes, and as soon as the chance arose I would start to bring down the tax burden.
Independent forecasters say if we stick to that plan we’ll get inflation right down, interest rates could start to fall in a matter of months and that is the thing that matters most to families.
When they’re making a choice for the future of this country they want to know that they have people who will do the right thing, even if it’s not always the easy thing.
Asked about murmurs this morning from Jeremy Hunt that he was planning to tax cuts which might entail spending cuts on public services, Rachel Reeves says:
I do recognise that our public services are under huge pressure, unlike perhaps the Conservatives do, which is why I’ve said there does need to be an immediate injection of cash into our public services.
Which is why we would end the tax break where non-dom’s don’t pay taxes in the country in which they live, why we would end the tax break where private schools are not paying VAT or business rates, why we would change the rules about how the bonuses of private equity managers are taxed.
And we would use all of that money to fund an immediate of injection of cash into the public services, which are on their knees today. But then we’ve got to have a serious plan to grow the economy
Rachel Reeves says she “rejects entirely” accusations that there is little difference between Labour and Conservative plans on the economy for growth.
She said:
We’ve got a comprehensive plan for growth that has been drawn up with business. Let me just give you a few examples of that. Labour would reform the planning system to get Britain building again. There are at the moment, something like £200bn worth of projects waiting for connections to our grid system, but they are being held back by restrictions in the planning rules.
At the moment ittakes something like two years to build a wind farm, but it can take 13 years to get a connection to the grid because of bureaucracies in the system. We need to turn that around so that we get Britain building again and ensure that that crucial national infrastructure is coming online and we are determined to do that.
She went on to say:
We’ve set out reforms to the apprenticeship levy to turn it into a growth and skills levy, to help businesses to train up the next generation of workers and a modern industrial strategy with strategies already published for life sciences, for financial services, and for automotives, and more of those industrial strategies that have been worked on in conjunction with businesses.
Reeves: Hunt is being 'dangerous' and 'misguided' in giving a running commentary ahead of March budget
Rachel Reeves has criticised the chancellor Jeremy Hunt for giving a “running commentary” ahead of his March budget, branding his words “dangerous” and “misguided”.
She told the media during a Q&A session after giving a speech on Labour’s economic plans:
I do find it extraordinary that the actual Chancellor of the Exchequer is providing a running commentary on his own budget. Now, I worked at the Bank of England for many years, and I’ve been in politics for a long time. Now, I have never seen anything like it with the chancellor giving a running commentary. It is dangerous and it is very misguided, and I would urge him to stop this because it creates the uncertainty that is that we really don’t need.
Rachel Reeves, shadow chancellor, has said in response to a question about Labour’s plan:
Unlike this prime minister and this chancellor, Kier Starmer and I have got a real plan. A concrete plan for growth. And don’t just take our word for it, take the words of the businesses who have helped us devise these plans, whether it is reform of planning, or of pensions, the national wealth fund and GB energy.
This is all about getting the growth in our economy that we need. The Conservatives have no plan. We have a serious plan that we’ve worked on with business and the green prosperity plan is still there.
A national wealth fund to invest in carbon capture and storage, in green hydrogen, in our steel industry, as well as GB energy with an endowment to invest in nuclear, tidal and floating offshore wind, there’s a plan.
This government don’t have that. A Labour government will have to grow our economy and to secure that growth and investment that we need to turn things round after 14 years of conservative failure.
Rachel Reeves has been giving a speech about Labour’s plan for growth. She has asked whether anything in the country works better than it did 14 years ago. She finished the speech by saying:
Do our hospitals, our schools, our police work better than they did 14 years ago? Frankly, does anything in our country work better than when the Conservatives came to power 14 years ago?
He is further evidence today in black and white. Britain has fallen into recession.
It is time to turn the page on 14 years of Conservative failure. It is time to demand better than managed decline. It is time to start a new chapter for Britain.
She is taking questions now, the first one is from Faisal Islam of the BBC who asked about whether she recognised that it was “a relatively mild recession”, and then about Labour ditching its £28bn green development policy.
Labour have just put out an attack video clip on the prime minister over this morning’s economic news, labelling it “Rishi’s recession”. It features Rishi Sunak yesterday saying “I really believe that the economy has turned a corner” followed by a montage of talking head clips from this morning’s news show analysing the news that the country has fallen into recession.
This is Rishi’s recession and it’s working people who will pay the price. pic.twitter.com/h0OGJ7cGT7
— The Labour Party (@UKLabour) February 15, 2024
They aren’t the only people trying to pin the recession personally on the prime minister. Earlier this morning Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey said:
Rishi’s recession has savaged the British economy by decimating growth and leaving families to cope with spiralling prices. Years of Conservative chaos and a revolving door of Conservative chancellors has culminated in economic turmoil.
It’s hardworking Brits forced to pick up the tab for this mess, through high food prices, tax hikes and skyrocketing mortgage bills. This year the country will have the chance to kick out this incompetent and out of touch Government once and for all.
The Liberal Democrats were in coalition with the Conservatives from 2010 to 2015. The Conservatives have had five different Chancellors since July 2019.
Updated
Data from the department for energy security and net zero shows that 13% of households in England were in fuel poverty last year. While largely unchanged from 13.1% in 2022, the figure amounts to 3.17 million households.
The figures also reveal that well over a third (36.4%) of English households, some 8.91 million, were forced to spend more than 10% of their income, after housing costs, on energy bills, up from 6.66 million in 2022.
PA Media reports that Simon Francis, co-ordinator of the End Fuel Poverty Coalition, said:
The numbers of households paying more than 10% of their income on energy is truly shocking, far exceeding previous estimates. The reality is that household energy debt is now at record levels, millions of people are living in cold, damp homes and children are suffering in mouldy conditions.
With the caveat that the Guardian has not independently verified the timing and location of this photograph, we appear to have our first dog at a polling station social media post from Wellingborough. This is, apparently, Monty.
Monty. The General. Clipped down to a base cut and ready for action. Who wins? He decides. #dogsatpollingstations #WellingboroughByElection #Wellingborough pic.twitter.com/HaRgIcrhTf
— Jonny Ball (no, not that one)💂🏻♀️ (@jonnyball79) February 15, 2024
On Sky News this morning Jeremy Hunt claimed that he would “only cut taxes in a way that was responsible” in the March budget, and the chancellor refused to be drawn on specific measures.
He told viewers:
You will know that chancellors don’t talk about budgets just a few weeks before and that is for a very good reason, because I don’t yet know the final numbers that I will receive from the office for budget responsibility.
I would only cut taxes in a way that was responsible, and I certainly wouldn’t do anything that fuelled inflation just when we are starting to have some success in bringing down inflation.
Inflation has dropped over the last year from 11% to 4%, but is still running much higher than the Bank of England’s target of 2%.
Questioned if tax cuts would come at the expense of cutting public services, Hunt said:
I am a passionate supporter of the NHS and all our public services, but in the long-run the best thing that I can do as chancellor for the NHS is to make sure that our economy is growing healthily. So what you will see in everything I do in the Budget on March 6 is prioritising economic growth.
He suggested that countries with “lighter taxes” did “tend to grow faster”. Earlier in February the prime minister acknowledged that he has failed to keep his promise to cut healthcare waiting lists in England.
Starmer: 'working people' are playing the price for '14 years of Tory economic decline'
Keir Starmer has used today’s GDP figures as another opportunity to call for change, saying that it is working people who are paying the price for what he described as “14 years of Tory economic decline”.
Rishi Sunak has failed to turn the corner on 14 years of Tory economic decline.
— Keir Starmer (@Keir_Starmer) February 15, 2024
Britain is hit by a recession and it’s working people who will pay the price.
It's time for change. Only Labour will deliver it.
Larry Elliott is the Guardian’s economics editor
In one sense, there is no comparison between 2009 and 2023. The former was a severe recession, with output declining by about 6% over a protracted period. In 2023 the economy has essentially stagnated: growing by 0.2% in the first quarter, remaining unchanged in the second quarter and then shrinking slightly in the second half of the year.
That said, even a technical recession is a headache for Rishi Sunak, the economy showed across-the-board weakness in the fourth quarter, with all three main sectors – services, manufacturing and construction – going backwards. There was also evidence that households had been cutting back on their spending as a result of cost of living pressures and the squeeze from higher interest rates.
Governments facing the prospect of a general election always want to generate a feelgood factor before polling day. Britain, in the last three months of 2023, had the opposite: a feel-bad factor.
The picture would have been even worse had it not been for a rising population. Gross domestic product per head of population has not risen for seven straight quarters (six falls, one quarter unchanged) stretching back to early 2022.
Jeremy Hunt put a brave face on what was clearly unwelcome news for a government. The economy was “turning a corner”, the chancellor said, and forecasters were predicting stronger growth over the coming years. Hunt may well be right. The worst for the economy is now probably over.
Read Larry Elliott’s full analysis here: Even a technical recession is a headache for Rishi Sunak
Why are people calling it a 'technical recession'?
Because the amount of growth or shrinkage in the economy is small, you will see the phrase “technical recession” being bandied about a lot today –and I already note some questions about the term in the comments. See, I do read them.
Look at this way, a recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth, so if you have quarters where the economy grows by 0.2%, 0.1%, -0.2%, -0.1% you would have technically entered a recession. However, four quarters where growth was 0.1%, -0.5%, 0.1%, -0.5% wouldn’t be a recession, even though the economy had shrunk by more. Essentially when we are dealing with very small changes, you can fall into a recession which is in effect a flatline.
The ONS said growth over the course of 2023 as a whole was estimated at 0.1%, the weakest year since 2009 during the financial crisis, excluding the economic collapse in 2020 during the Covid pandemic.
The ONS have an explainer on recessions here – The ‘R’ Word: What exactly is a ‘recession’ anyway? – in which Darren Morgan, ONS Director of Economic Statistics is quoted as saying:
A technical recession is widely regarded as two consecutive quarters of negative growth. You could get a -0.1% or +0.1% change, but how different really was the economy at that point in time? I would say it was broadly flat, but some people do get excited about it.
Chief economist at the ONS, Grant Fitzner, adds – and I will try not to take this personally:
I think journalists need something quick and simple to understand, and I guess this [technical recession] meets the bill. But I don’t think anyone would seriously call that a ‘recession’. The common sense understanding of a recession is a prolonged and significant downturn in economic activity. So not just one or two quarters, and not just a 0.1% change, but actually something a bit more substantial.
Hunt ‘considering spending cuts’ to fund pre-election tax giveaway
Jeremy Hunt is considering making billions of pounds of spending cuts to fund pre-election tax cuts in the next budget, according to a report.
The chancellor is looking at “further spending restraint” after 2025 if official economic forecasts suggest he does not have enough headroom to pay for “smart tax cuts”, the Financial Times reported, citing Treasury insiders.
The newspaper said Treasury officials were looking at reducing the projected rise in public spending from 2025 onwards to about 0.75% a year, which would release £5bn to £6bn for tax cuts in this spring’s budget.
The cuts would have to be made in unprotected departmental budgets such as adult social care and Ministry of Justice funding for courts and prisons. NHS and schools spending is protected.
Read more of Eleni Courea’s report here: Jeremy Hunt ‘considering spending cuts’ to fund pre-election tax giveaway
Rachel Reeves, Labour’s shadow chancellor, has said that the prime minister’s promises on the economy are “in tatters” after it was announced that the UK was in recession.
She said:
The prime minister can no longer credibly claim that his plan is working or that he has turned the corner on more than 14 years of economic decline under the Conservatives that has left Britain worse off.
This is Rishi Sunak’s recession and the news will be deeply worrying for families and business across Britain.
It is time for a change. We need an election now to give the British people the chance to vote for a changed Labour Party that has a long-term plan for more jobs, more investment and cheaper bills.
Labour: Hunt's 'insulting' comments on economy show he is 'out of touch'
Labour have suggested Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s comments on the UK entering technical recession meant he and his party were “out of touch” with voters, and demanded a general election.
In comments after figures showed the UK economy was in recession, Hunt told broadcasters:
We always expected growth to be weaker while we prioritised tackling inflation, that means higher interest rates, and that is the right thing to do because you can’t have long-term healthy growth with high inflation.
But also for families when there is a cost-of-living crisis, when the cost of their weekly shop is going up, their energy bills are much higher, it is the right thing to do.
The underlying picture here is an economy that is more resilient than most people predicted, inflation is coming down, real wages have been going up now for six months.
If we stick to our guns, independent forecasters say that by the early summer we could start to see interest rates falling and that will be a very important relief for families with mortgages.
Hunt also said that “there are signs the British economy is turning a corner”, claiming:
Forecasters agree that growth will strengthen over the next few years, wages are rising faster than prices, mortgage rates are down and unemployment remains low. Although times are still tough for many families, we must stick to the plan – cutting taxes on work and business to build a stronger economy.
In his January 2023 pledges, prime minister Rishi Sunak promised “We will grow the economy, creating better-paid jobs and opportunity right across the country.”
A spokesperson for the Labour Party said: “Jeremy Hunt’s comments are as insulting as they are out of touch. The Conservatives’ failure to take any responsibility for Rishi’s recession show why we need an election.”
UK economy in recession as households cut spending
The UK economy fell into recession at the end of last year as hard-pressed households cut back on spending in response to soaring interest rates and rising living costs.
The Office for National Statistics said gross domestic product (GDP) fell by a larger than expected 0.3% in the three months to December after a decline in all main sectors of the economy and a collapse in retail sales in the run-up to Christmas.
It followed a drop of 0.1% in the third quarter, confirming a second consecutive quarter of falling national output – the technical definition of a recession.
Official confirmation of a recession is a blow to the government with an election less than a year away and will embarrass Rishi Sunak, after the prime minister made growing the economy one of his five priorities for government at the start of last year.
Read more here: UK economy in recession as households cut spending
Polls open for two byelections in testing times for Tories and Labour
Polls have opened in the Wellingborough and Kingswood byelections, seen as a final chance for Rishi Sunak to buck predictions that his party is heading for a landslide defeat at the next general election.
The Conservatives are defending majorities of more than 18,000 in Wellingborough in Northants and 11,000 in Kingswood in South Gloucestershire.
But Labour is expected to win both contests. The party has pulled off a string of byelection victories, gaining four Tory seats in a row since July.
The byelection in Wellingborough was called after Peter Bone was successfully recalled by voters in the constituency in December.
Bone’s partner, Helen Harrison, was selected as the Conservative candidate for the byelection.
In Kingswood, a byelection was called after Chris Skidmore, a leading Tory voice on green issues, resigned in protest against the government’s bill to allow new oil and gas licences to be issued.
Read more here: Polls open for two byelections in testing times for Tories and Labour
Welcome and opening summary …
Good morning. It is byelection day, against the backdrop of a UK economy that has just entered recession. Here are the headlines …
Polls have opened in the Wellingborough and Kingswood byelections. The Conservatives are defending majorities of more than 18,000 in Wellingborough in Northants and 11,000 in Kingswood in South Gloucestershire, but Labour is hoping to win both contests. We expect results between 2am and 5am.
The UK economy fell into recession at the end of last year as hard-pressed households cut back on spending. The Office for National Statistics said gross domestic product (GDP) fell by a larger than expected 0.3% in the three months to December after a decline in all main sectors of the economy and a collapse in retail sales in the run-up to Christmas. Rachel Reeves, the shadow chancellor, said: “Rishi Sunak’s promise to grow the economy is now in tatters.”
A senior German minister has suggested the UK could contribute to a new European nuclear shield if Donald Trump becomes US president again.
Home secretary James Cleverly has condemned as “utterly deplorable” a huge recorded rise in antisemitic incidents in the UK since the 7 October Hamas attack inside Israel.
I am expecting a quiet day. The Commons, Lords, Senedd and the Scottish parliament are not sitting. In Stormont there are committee meetings. That is about it for the diary.
It is Martin Belam here with you. You can email me at martin.belam@theguardian.com – especially if you have spotted an error or typo.
Reminder: I know you probably all know this, but please don’t tell us how you voted in the comments section – section 66a of the Representation of the People Act 1983 on the requirement of secrecy makes it an offence to publish information about the ballot before the polls close at 10pm. I have to be on my best behaviour too. Many thanks.
