Labor is still holding out hopes that Mick Gentleman will cross the line in Brindabella but Chief Minister Andrew Barr has conceded he is the underdog.
Mr Gentleman, who is the Police Minister, has suffered a drop in his primary vote. It was sitting at 7.2 per cent on Sunday afternoon. In 2020, he received 11.5 per cent.
If he loses the seat it will be the second time Mr Gentleman has failed to retain his seat after his loss in the 2008 election. He was re-elected in 2012.
Labor candidates Caitlin Tough and Taimus Werner-Gibbings appeared to have secured the seats in the electorate.
Both appeared with the Chief Minister in Tuggeranong on Sunday morning.
Sitting Labor MLA Joy Burch did not contest the election.
Labor did experience a swing against them in Brindabella. As of Sunday afternoon this was sitting at 6.5 per cent whereas the Canberra Liberals experienced a 4.5 per cent swing towards them.
The Liberals received nearly 43 per cent of the vote while Labor received 34.2 per cent. They are still the most likely to pick up the third seat in the electorate with James Daniels likely to be the third candidate.
But Labor could still be in with a chance based on preference flows. Mr Barr said preferences from Laura Nuttall, a sitting Greens MLA, could swing in favour of Mr Gentleman, allowing him to get the third seat.
Mr Barr said the early voting data, which came through first on Saturday night, favoured the Liberals but data from polling day showed booths were turning in Labor's favour.
"The later data that came in through the booth results and the correction of the error at the Chisholm booth has really brought that seat right back into the too-close-to-call category," he said.
"It will be decided in the end on postal votes and absent votes. We still hold out hope for Mick Gentleman in that contest ... he is the underdog though."
Mr Barr did acknowledge the result in Tuggeranong meant the party needed to do more.
"[There's] renewal in our Tuggeranong team. We do acknowledge that although the result is looking a little better in the Brindabella electorate than it did earlier in the night," he said.
"There's still work to do for Labor in Tuggeranong but I'm very confident Taimus and Caitlin are up to the task."
It is the third time lucky for Mr Werner-Gibbings who ran in 2016 and 2020. He narrowly missed out in 2020 to the Greens' Johnathan Davis.
Ms Tough had the highest first preference vote for Labor in Brindabella.
"It's a great result but I'm not going to take anything for granted until all the votes are in," she said.
