A federal Morgan poll, conducted October 22–29 from a sample of 1,375, gave Labor a 53–47 lead, a 3.5-point gain for Labor since the previous week. An earlier poll, taken in the week after the Voice referendum was heavily defeated, was the first by any pollster this term to give the Coalition a lead, by 50.5–49.5, a 4.5-point gain for the Coalition since the pre-referendum Morgan poll.
Primary votes in the earlier poll were 36% Coalition, 32% Labor, 14% Greens, 4.5% One Nation, 8.5% independents and 5% others. If preferences were distributed according to how they flowed at the 2022 federal election, Labor would have led by about 53–47. Respondent allocated preferences were very weak for Labor.
In the current poll, primary votes were 35% Coalition, 32.5% Labor, 15% Greens and 17.5% for all Others. Labor had a better flow of respondent preferences, explaining its rebound.
