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The Conversation
The Conversation
Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

Labor has huge lead in a South Australian poll, 5 months from the election

Labor United States Australia Morgan South Australia Coalition LNP Resolve Vincent Tarzia Redbridge

Labor has a blowout lead in South Australia, with the election in March 2026. The federal party has also expanded its lead in a Morgan poll.

The South Australian state election will be held in March 2026. A DemosAU and Ace Strategies poll for InDaily, conducted October 6–15 from a sample of 1,006, gave Labor a 66–34 lead (54.6–45.4 to Labor at the March 2022 election).

Primary votes were 47% Labor, 21% Liberals, 13% Greens and 19% for all Others. If this poll was replicated at the election, on a uniform swing the Liberals would be reduced to three to six of the 47 lower house seats, with leader Vincent Tarzia losing his seat.

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