With 34% of enrolled voters counted for today’s South Australian state election, The Poll Bludger’s results have Labor winning 31 of the 47 lower house seats, the Liberals four, One Nation one and independents one, with ten still in some doubt. This is already a majority for Labor.
When doubtful seats are assigned to the most likely winner, Labor has 35 seats, One Nation four, the Liberals four and independents four. If this occurs, Labor would gain eight seats from the 2022 election, which was already a thumping win for Labor, the Liberals would be down 12, One Nation up four and independents steady.
Primary votes are currently 37.8% Labor (down 1.9% in booth matched swing from the 2022 election), 20.8% One Nation (up 18.5%), 18.4% Liberals (down 16.9%), 12.0% Greens (up 1.9%) and 5.6% independents (up 2.9%). A Labor vs Liberal two-party estimate has Labor winning by 59.2–40.8, a 4.6% swing to Labor.
