- As markets open this week, investors feel more confident about an incoming cut to the base rate—but that’s about as far as their courage goes. July payroll growth came in far below forecasts, and May–June figures were revised down significantly, signaling deeper job market weakness. As a result, investors now see an 87% chance of a September cut. The resignation of FOMC member Adriana Kugler also opens the door for a more dovish Fed shift.
Until Friday, analysts had little confidence that the U.S. Federal Reserve was about to deliver an interest rate cut, but last week’s revisions to labor market data have led many to bet in favor of Jerome Powell cutting at the Fed’s next meeting in September.
