How will Newcastle council's Labor majority deal with the Supercars issue when it inevitably resurfaces before next September's local government elections?
For now, the Labor bloc has avoided making a decision either way, but at some point in the next 11 months the six ALP councillors and lord mayor Nuatali Nelmes will have to adopt a clear position on whether they support bringing the race back for five more years.
It appears as though next year's event, pencilled in for March, will not happen after Cr Nelmes and the council administration team rejected a government proposal to extend the race deal for only one year. They argued their "extensive" consultation on whether the race should come back was based on the premise of a five-year deal, not one, between Supercars and the government.
"If they don't reach an agreement, there's nothing for council to actually look at," Cr Nelmes said two weeks ago, after the government had said publicly the race's future was "firmly" in the council's hands.
Since then, not much has happened. But, some time between March and September next year, the race's future will come up again and voters (and some Labor branch pre-selectors) will expect all candidates to have a clear position.
The Labor councillors, who hold one seat in inner-city ward one, one in ward two, two in ward three, two in ward four and the lord mayoralty, have three options. They can come out publicly and state their support for a five-year Supercars deal. They can come out publicly and state their opposition to a five-year deal. Or they can continue to say nothing.
Options one and three do not look appealing given the results of the consultation, which Cr Nelmes described as "exceptionally broad consultation that was run over several months".
Of 11,000 Newcastle LGA respondents to an online survey, 59 per cent opposed a five-year deal. That opposition percentage rose to 66 and 67 in the two wards, one and two, closest to the race track. Whatever criticism may be levelled at the survey methodology, 59 per cent is not a number to be trifled with during an election campaign. It could easily cost Labor its prized majority.
Cr Nelmes continues to describe the race as "very successful for Newcastle", despite the survey results and Newcastle MP Tim Crakanthorp's opposition.
The lord mayor may well still see the all-city or all-region economic benefits of running a high-profile sporting event along Newcastle's spectacular waterfront.
"It has really showcased us, showcased the city as being able to host major events," she said two weeks ago.
"I know a lot of people really want the event to go ahead here, but we do have to be mindful of all the stakeholders ... and make sure we go through a methodical process, and there's no point in rushing this and missing something along the way when it is a very complex set-up and set-down if the event was to go ahead in Newcastle."
The survey results have shown the politics of supporting the event is dangerous, at best.
Option two, opposing the race, also does not look particularly appetising because it implies the Labor caucus was wrong in its full-throated support of the event in the past and is being forced to change its tune.
Some of Labor's political opponents certainly will make that point.
Option two also presents a problem in ward four, where only 28 per cent of survey respondents oppose the race, but perhaps it is the lesser of three evils.
The nuclear option would be to pirouette and agree to a one-year deal for 2024, thus ignoring both the methodology and the outcome of the consultation. This would require a spin of almost unprecedented audacity.
