Seems like a dream now,
It was so long ago
Room burned so bright and
The town went so slow…
Eagles, ‘Whatever happened to Saturday night?’
Look, let’s start with the wilfully naive take. Tasmanian Labor’s announcement on Sunday that Labor would not seek to form a minority government is a betrayal of historical possibility and audacity that could yield real lasting change and make this a historic moment not only in the state but in the Westminster system.
That has been greeted with dismay. Two thirds of Tasmanians voted against the Liberal party, and it’s optional preferential, so there’s no absolute two-party-preferred result to come in. Labor got 10 seats and may go up to 11. The Greens have got four, and may go up to six. The two independents likely to get elected — Kristie Johnston and David O’Byrne — are progressives, and the third possibility, Craig Garland, campaigns against all the Libs have been doing in fishing, forestry and elsewhere.
So a de facto progressive majority is possible (though don’t overcount the above, all are competing against all). And on the general principle of politics — seize power seize power seize power — it would have seemed possible to leave it open. The failure to do so has dismayed people across Tasmanian Labor and the left.
True, Labor leader Rebecca White kept the gate open with her zen victory-concession speech in the beloved tally room on Saturday night (saved, in years past, by various pleas). But that was only so Tasmanian Labor could talk to the ALP administrative committee on Sunday morning, who would have reiterated what was put in place after the Labor-Greens coalition of the 2010s: no ministries given to non-Labor members.
Yes, okay, Tasmanian Labor is in an impossible position. Greens, independents etc are happy as muck with a complex result, obviously. Liberal voters got their plurality. Labor voters yearn for the time when such plurality of majority might have been theirs. Some of them are supporters of major party government more than they are of Labor. Some would walk across the aisle if Labor went into any immediate arrangement with the Greens.
Then there’s the internal divisions. Tasmanian Labor is dominated by the right now, and the right is the SDA right. Key members would much rather see the Liberals hold on for another term than let the Greens get anywhere near governing. They would also be reliant on the vote of David O’Byrne, ejected from the party while leader as part of a bitter struggle and thus a very loose unit, coalition-wise.
There’s two possible plays from there. One is to let the Liberals grind on and on. Their only hope in getting things through that are opposed by the progressive bloc lies with the Jacqui Lambie Experience, and there is absolutely zero knowledge about how that lot will work. There’s no clue which of the 12 of them — three candidates in each seat except Clark — will get up, since the Robson rotation has given each ticket member a third of the vote. The party has no policies, no stated preferences, its “members” are not bound, and Lambie, obviously, is not in the Assembly.
Chaos, ostensibly, which is why Jeremy Rockliff sounded, in his speech on Saturday night, like the English Patient asking for a lethal dose of morphine. That said, Lambie’s federal Senate runs rely on Liberal preferences to get up, so she may well trade support for the Liberals in the Tassie Assembly — under the guise of “common sense” — for preferences in 2025.
Realistically, I can’t see the Lambie team being stable in that way, unless Jacqui has fed them the zombie cucumber. The more likely result is that the Rockliff government will have to fight it vote by vote, and that Labor will have to decide whether to prop it up, let it fall, try and form government from existing members — without taking non-Labor members as ministers — or ask for another election.
The alternative would be for Labor to allow this to go on not so long, and at some point have the leader announce that due to the chaos created by the Rockliff or whomever government, things have changed and stability demands a coalition government of Labor, Green and independents. This is quickly and efficiently done, the Libs slink into opposition, and the coalition parties try to make it work, knowing they have been given a degree of legitimacy by Liberal failure.
The third road, the one not taken? That Rebecca White had gazumped her own party on Saturday night and said we won’t know the full result for weeks, but there will clearly be a larger number of clear progressives than Liberals, and we will try to form a Labor-Green-independent coalition at that time, with all groups taking ministries.
God, imagine the sudden release of energy and possibility from that! Imagine the sense of determination had White been seized with that audacity, and stared down her colleagues and her federal overlords. Imagine the sense of sudden clear purpose, the drafting of an initial minimum program, with a further process of collective policy development to come.
Suddenly Tasmania would be the place it sometimes is, that of possibility and fresh thinking. The progressive coalition would create something of a norm of cooperation and dialogue, and start to push against the other side of Tasmania, the slightly shonky Company aspect. White would be hailed as an audacious hero. Should the numbers not have got there in the final count, she could yield gracefully to the Libs. But had they hit 18, or even 17, she could have gone to the governor with a stable alternative.
Instead, the gray clouds of torpor roll back over. Jeremy Rockcliff doesn’t sound excited or at the beginning of anything, and why should he? Things are much worse in the Assembly, and dire in the partyroom, where the Christian right are stalking him, ready for the entrance of Premier Abetz — a coup which would itself prompt possible resignations of the whip. Politically, it will all be ceaselessly enervating, without providing any real sense of possibility.
One had hoped the first outing of the re-enlarged Hare-Clark might provide for some audacious announcements in the tally room. Instead it will emphasise to many the separation of political and social life. A well-earned boost for the Greens, who are nevertheless a professional outfit. But no new independents, and in the swing seats, the Jacqui Lambie Experience, four lists of ticket-fillers for a party with no policies, and whatever happened to Saturday night?
Should Tasmanian Labor try to form government with the Greens and independents? Let us know your thoughts by writing to letters@crikey.com.au. Please include your full name to be considered for publication. We reserve the right to edit for length and clarity.
