The Los Angeles Lakers and the Dallas Mavericks are locked in a tight battle to reach the NBA Play-Offs as the regular season enters its final week and one is enjoying a better run to the finish line than the other.
Both are contesting the Western Conference and an intriguing final seven days of the season awaits. The Lakers beat basement boys the Houston Rockets on Sunday night, while the Mavericks lost a third game in a row and have three tough fixtures coming up this week, with meetings against the Sacramento Kings, Chicago Bulls and the San Antonio Spurs scheduled to take place.
There are three teams in between the Lakers, who are up to seventh, and the Mavericks who sit 11th. The Lakers boast a record of 40-38 and boast a PCT of .513, while the Mavericks are lagging behind on 37-42 and .468.
Could the Mavericks really miss out?
The Mavericks’ current position in the standings has them on course to miss out on the Play-Offs, with only the top ten teams set to play a post-season game. FiveThirtyEight have rated the Mavericks’ chances of making the Play-Offs at a measly 6 per cent, which isn’t a pretty sight for superstars Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving.
Having traded for Irving, the Mavs might have reasonably thought they would be looking up from 5th spot in the West when they signed him from Brooklyn. Instead a 7-12 record since Irving's arrival means they have slide down the standings. While still in with a slim chance of making the Play-Offs, they are four games behind the sixth-placed Warriors who have the final automatic spot.
The only plausible route into the last 16 is through the Play-In tournament, where the seventh, eighth, ninth and tenth seed will compete for the final two Western Conference spots.
How high could the Lakers finish?
The Lakers, on the other hand, have a chance to avoid the Play-In lottery and after the win over Houston are now within just half a game of the fifth seed LA Clippers.
After looking like a team who might miss out on the post-season entirely with suggestions of shutting down LeBron James and resetting the roster entirely, the Lakers are now looking at the prospect of finishing far higher up the Western Conference than even they can have imagined.
Anthony Davis stepped up in the absence of LeBron James and The King's return has been well timed, and in fact both he and the Lakers may well benefit from the near month's break that he had. FiveThirtyEight views the Lakers’ Play-Off chances more favourably than the Mavericks.
They believe there’s a 86 per cent chance that the Lakers will feature in the postseason, while James says a Championship belief is fuelling their surge.
Race for top seed in the East
Over at the Eastern Conference, there’s a fierce fight for top seed between the Milwaukee Bucks and the Boston Celtics. The Bucks hold the advantage at the moment with a record of 56-22 and .718, while the Celtics are two games back at 54-24 and .692.
Unfortunately for NBA fans, the two franchises will not meet in the final week of the regular season. Both have four massive games in the space of the next week.
The Bucks are taking on the Wizards on Wednesday, followed by a game against the Bulls a day later. Their final two games come against the Grizzlies and the Raptors. The Celtics, on the other hand, play the 76ers, the Raptors twice and the Hawks.
Three in a row for the Joker?
Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo will be hoping all goes smoothly as he competes with Philadelphia 76ers star Joel Embiid and the Denver Nuggets’ Nikola Jokic for NBA MVP.
He currently sits third in the running for his third MVP title having won back-to-back in 2019 and 2020. Embiid is just ahead and Jokic holds top spot, although the Greek Freak got the better of Embiid in Sunday night's 117-104 victory and might be a marker for the post-season
All three are on course to feature in the Play-Offs, with the Bucks, 76ers and Nuggets all fighting at the top of their respective conferences. but it's Jokic who has the edge for now, as he looks to become the first player since Larry Bird (1984-86) to win the award for three successive years.
Wembanyama the prized Draft 'reward'
Unlike the Western Conference, the Eastern side’s top ten looks pretty settled, with the Washington Wizards - 11th seed - four games back of the Chicago Bulls, who sit tenth on a record of 38-40.
A poor finish in the regular season could, however, put three lucky teams to the front of the queue for presumptive 2023 No1 pick Victor Wembanyama. The 19-year-old Frenchman is causing quite the stir. In fact, one GM told ESPN's Jonathan Givony and Adrian Wojnarowski that his play would "start a race to the bottom like we've never seen”.
The Detroit Pistons have had a torrid season, sitting bottom of the Eastern Conference with a record of 16-62. But it puts them in good standing for the lottery for the No1 pick, which will be decided on May 16. They could face competition from Western Conference teams Spurs and the Rockets.
