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WIMBLEDON, England—In one of his many candid moments, Nick Kyrgios once said this about Novak Djokovic.
“No matter how many Grand Slams he wins, he will never be the greatest for me,” the Australian said. “Simply because, I’ve played him twice and, like, I’m sorry, but if you can’t beat me, you’re not the greatest of all time. Because if you look at my day-to-day routine and how much I train and how much I put in, it’s zero compared to him.”
While the relationship between the two players has improved since those comments, the fact remains that Djokovic has won 20 major titles, while Kyrgios is three sets away from his first.
And how Kyrgios handles himself and his emotions—and, ultimately, how that affects his tennis—will be the X factor in the men’s singles final clash between the two here Sunday.
And no, Kyrgios’s 2–0 career record against Djokovic—two best-of-3 matches in 2017 on hard courts—will have no bearing against a 20-time Grand Slam winner and three-time defending Wimbledon singles champion. But the match will give us a compelling matchup between arguably the best server in tennis (Kyrgios) and the game’s best returner (Djokovic).
There are so many variables in Djokovic’s favor, starting with the fact that he’s been in this situation more than any other player in the modern era (this will be his 32nd Grand Slam final appearance).
Djokovic is also the steadier player, not just in terms of his rallies, but also with his mental game and the confidence that comes with him being at this stage of his career. He is unlikely to be distracted by any of Kyrgios’s antics. He has also gotten stronger as the tournament has gone on—a big factor considering he has not played many matches this year due to his vaccination status.
Kyrgios, meanwhile, is tennis’s all-time wild card. He can lose in the first round or win an entire tournament. We have no idea how he is going to react to the biggest match of his life, on Centre Court, for a match of this magnitude with the whole world watching. Does he keep his emotions in check, which isn’t always good for his tennis? Does it cause him so much stress that he will be in more Kyrgios Mode than ever? Will he work the crowd? Will he try to get into Djokovic’s head, like he did earlier in the tournament against Stefanos Tsitsipas? His emotions might determine this result more than any ball-striking and certainly play a bigger role than four sets he played against Djokovic on a different surface.
The Australian needs to continue to serve well, something he’s done the entire fortnight with great power, placement and variety. He also has the benefit of not playing in the semifinals after Rafael Nadal’s unfortunate withdrawal with an abdominal injury. Kyrgios will be more physically fresh and has been able to avoid having to go through the spiritual battle of playing a match that deep into the tournament. The flip side: He’s had extra time to get out of his rhythm. He has spoken about how he hasn’t slept well. He has had more time to scroll through his phone and realize what a big moment this is. If we’re seeing everywhere that he could make an extra $100 million in endorsements with a victory here, he surely has seen the same tweets and posts.
Prediction
Djokovic in four sets. He often feeds off the crowd and whether they are for or against him. It’s unclear which way spectators will go Sunday, but it seems hard to argue against the 20-time champ.
