WIMBLEDON, England—While many followed the seeds and followed history and predicted a Novak Djokovic–Rafael Nadal men’s singles final matchup (the 1 and 2 seeds at the event) after the Wimbledon draw was revealed, there was another potential clash that caught people’s eye on Nadal’s side of the bracket.
As Nick Kyrgios entered the tournament there were two schools of thought: the Australian could come into his first match and be out by lunchtime; or he could come, play to his abilities, and have a chance to win it all.
Ten days into Wimbledon 2022, we’re veering toward option B, as Kyrgios and Nadal will meet Friday in one half of the men’s semis, while Djokovic takes on home-crowd favorite Cameron Norrie in the other.
Let’s start with Kyrgios and Nadal. There is a lot to unpack here. There are a lot of contrasts here. And much history, too.
It was at Wimbledon where Kyrgios burst onto the tennis scene after pulling off a shocking fourth-round upset of Nadal in 2014. Then only 19, the Australian became the first teenager to beat a No. 1 seed in a Grand Slam since Nadal did the same against a fellow named Roger Federer in 2005. Ever since, Kyrgios has remained a tantalizing underachiever who is monstrously talented; and monstrously unwilling to work and do what’s necessary to maximize his chances of succeeding. Nadal, of course, is the absolute antithesis of that, who wrings everything from his game.
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Just take a look at how the 22-time Grand Slam champion rebounded in the quarterfinals. He was demonstratively injured and serving in the 90s (mph)—the equivalent of a pitcher throwing a 70-mph fastball—yet figured out a way to rally from two sets down, force a fifth-set tiebreak and beat a motivated Taylor Fritz. Nadal was pushed for over four hours, clearly injured with a nagging abdominal issue to the point where his father, Sebastian, was telling him to stop from the player’s box. The drama, along with Nadal grimacing after points, sparked all kinds of real-time speculation as to whether he would quit the match. Kyrgios, meanwhile, was remarkably and uncharacteristically businesslike in his straight-sets victory against Cristian Garin.
But as he continues the most impressive stretch of his career, he has not escaped off-court controversy. On Tuesday came the news he is now facing assault charges in Australia for an incident with a former girlfriend that allegedly turned violent. He is due in court in Canberra next month. A conviction or guilty plea obviously reframes any discussion of Kyrgios. That acknowledged, and not dismissed, we will confine this to tennis, for now.
There are so many variables with Kyrgios, and in facing Nadal, there is also a distinct contrast in styles. It’s not just lefty versus righty, but just an overall approach to the profession. Kyrgios respects Nadal for what he has accomplished, but they are not “buds.” Kyrgios speeds to the baseline in between service points, while before a serve Nadal goes through a methodical step-by-step process which unofficially led to the sport introducing a serve clock.
There are many players who like Kyrgios (Andy Murray, for example) and players who like his on-court antics and he has friends in the locker room. Nadal is not one of them, however. I think Nadal is almost personally offended, not so much by his antics but by how Kyrgios treats the talents he has and wastes those gifts. Nadal said as much after Kyrgios beat him in Acapulco three years ago.
“He could win Grand Slams and fight for the top positions of the ranking, but there is a reason why he is where he is,” Nadal told reporters then. “He lacks respect for the public, the rival and towards himself.”
It’s not that Kyrgios gets under Nadal’s skin during matches—he will mind his half of the court but will have no patience for some of the things he might find disrespectful, like lengthy jarring with a chair umpire or racquet smashing. Kyrgios can implode at any minute and the smallest thing could set him off. He feeds off chaos. There is a lot of wear and tear from these matches—and when you don’t play tennis full time, as Kyrgios doesn’t, and you don’t train full time, as Kyrgios will happily tell you he doesn’t, who knows how much durability he has six matches into a tournament like Wimbledon. Kyrgios has the best serve of anyone left in the draw, he has youth on his side (at least against Nadal), but he is such an unpredictable player.
Kyrgios needs to serve well and move Nadal around. He’ll know early on in the match how bad Nadal’s abdominal injury really is. Nadal had the area wrapped up in the fourth round and it seemed to flare up after about an hour against Fritz. He had to adjust his service motion to compensate for it. On Thursday, he practiced, but for less than a half hour, while reports floated that he has a 7-mm tear in the area.
Nadal, who leads the overall series 6–3, will be ready and push through any nagging pain. He has to figure out a way to get his serve in despite the injury, because you’re not going to beat Kyrgios with a 90-something-mph serve.
As he always does, Nadal will persist, persist, persist.
Is there any hope for Norrie against Djokovic?
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Djokovic was definitely rooting for David Goffin, a lesser version of himself, to get past Norrie in the quarters. Norrie, a lefty, makes players uncomfortable and makes it difficult for them to get into their own rhythm. The Brit is on the ascent and hasn’t been in this position before, and in some ways, that can be a blessing.
The big x-factor here is the crowd, and they know it. Tennis fans know Djokovic will not like an 85-15 split amongst the crowd that will undoubtedly be pro-Norrie. It’s hard to see Djokovic losing this match, but the combination of an uncomfortable left-hander and an inhospitable crowd might throw him a bit.
There was a question heading into Wimbledon about whether the lack of overall match play this year would impact Djokovic’s success, but he has looked good all tournament and has played himself into form.
Predictions
Nadal in five, Djokovic in straight sets … and we’ll get the 60th meeting between these two generational players in the Wimbledon final.
