On paper, France and Poland’s game in the Round of 16 couldn’t be a bigger mismatch.
The French, led by Kylian Mbappe, are the defending World Cup champions for a good reason. Between Mbappe, Olivier Giroud, and Antoine Griezmann, among others, France have a bevy of world class finishers who have been there and done that. They have a squad of heroes from top to bottom.
On the flip side, Poland’s Robert Lewandowski is one of the greatest goal-scorers ever. But the Poles are only playing beyond the group stage for the first time in over three decades for a good reason, too. This team has one hero, and they ask him to put out all of the fires across Metropolis, even though he’s not from Krypton and has human limitations.
But the way the Poles play — a backward, conservative, defensive counter style — is just them begging to get destroyed by the world’s premier soccer power.
You see, while Poland can’t match France in talent at all, if it concedes possession voluntarily, hoping to counter with Lewandowski on a handful of chance opportunities, it’s writing its own death sentence. We saw evidence of this firsthand against Lionel Messi’s juggernaut in Argentina. The Argentinians are far more balanced and gifted than the Poles, but Poland had no interest in sustaining consistent offensive pressure from its 4-4-2 formation.
This was how Lewandowski’s bunch lined up:
As usual, the Poles decided to set their defensive back line almost right by goalkeeper Wojciech Szczęsny. A midfield led by Piotr Zieliński, in turn, topped that initial defensive shell, trying to form a tight bubble while hoping an overaggressive Argentina would leave a gap for a pass to Lewandowski going the other way. The key word there is hope.
As these conservative strategies often tend to do, Poland’s shell invited Messi and Co. to sustain relentless pressure as they pounded the Poles with 23 shots (13 on goal). On the flip side, Poland’s offense (three shots, none on goal) was nonexistent. Leaving Lewandowski and whoever his partner striker is on a distant island allowed Argentina to effortlessly double or even triple-team the superstar striker into irrelevance on the pitch. This is how Poland has usually played in Lewandowski’s decade of international play — trying to protect its inferior overall talent — while hoping Lewandowski goes super-Saiyan. Again: It’s not hard to see why this is the first time Poland’s played beyond the group stage since 1986.
Unfortunately, a No. 9 like Lewandowski needs better service and support to wreak havoc. If you allow the defense to isolate him, he becomes just Another Guy like anyone. And if the other team — like Argentina in the Group C finale — is locked-in possession-wise (74 percent!), there won’t be many chances to push the ball the other way, hoping for a quality shot attempt. You need the ball to do damage and to protect your defense. A novel concept, I know.
If Szczęsny doesn’t stand on his head in an all-time performance, a final 2-0 margin from that Argentina match is probably more in the range of 4-0 or 5-0 (if not more). Asking him to do the same for 120-plus minutes and in a penalty kick shootout (the only “realistic” way Poland could win against France) is a Herculean task with the tactic his team utilizes.
All this to say: France should be heavily favored to continue its World Cup quest to repeat and demolish Poland. Where Argentina fell short on finishes, the French assuredly will not, no matter how well Szczęsny plays. But if the Poles don’t even attempt to attack with regularity from their defensive shell, if they cede ground by default to the more talented squad — we’ll have one heck of a French rout on our hands this Sunday. Book it.
