Questions on a wide spectrum of topics this week. Let’s dive into those …
From Ronnie (@Tray4o): Should we expect to see Kyler Murray back on the field sooner rather than later this season?
Ronnie, the fact that the Cardinals’ quarterback returned to practice Wednesday is a good sign. I’ve heard he still may need a couple of weeks to be ready for games, but it won’t be too long.
Earlier this year, I’d heard a fair estimate was Nov. 1. So it seems he’s on target to hit his markers, which is good news for both the player and the team. I’m told Murray, who’d played in Air Raid types of systems from Allen High School to Texas A&M and Oklahoma to the Kliff Kingsbury–led Cardinals, has been energized to learn a new offensive scheme.
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That said, this one gets even more interesting when Murray is cleared for game action for two reasons. One, the offensive personnel around Murray is pretty limited. And, two, Joshua Dobbs has done really well with that personnel—helping to keep Arizona competitive week to week in Jonathan Gannon’s first year, and throwing for 1,215 yards, six scores and three interceptions.
I’m not saying, of course, that Dobbs is the quarterback of the future. But his performance does set a bar that Murray should be expected to clear—if Arizona’s going to consider going forward with him—with a bumper crop of quarterbacks in the 2024 NFL draft.
From Gerry Levine (@gerrylev): Is the Patriots’ offense a teardown?
Gerry, that’s a funny question to ask, because I’d say if there was a teardown—and I don’t think that’s what it is—then it’s already happened. Think about it this way: There isn’t a single player on that offense that’d make me feel comfortable saying, Yes, that guy will be around in 2025. The offensive line’s cornerstone player is 31-year-old center David Andrews. The team’s best skill player, Zeke Elliott, was a street free-agent signing in August. And the quarterback, Mac Jones, is in an uncertain spot.
If you’re the Patriots going into the draft and free agency next spring, you’re doing so with needs (to varying degrees) to fill just about every position on offense. That’s why this looks to me like a multiyear rebuild, which, obviously, adds another layer to the conversation about whether Bill Belichick will be around next year.
It’s strange to say these things about the Patriots, for sure. But that’s where things stand.
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From Rodney White (@Whitediculous): What are you hearing about a possible timeline for an Aaron Rodgers return to the Jets?
Rodney, first things first—the Jets need to win to make this a possibility.
Right now, Robert Saleh’s crew is 3–3, and they’re through the teeth of their schedule. Their first three games coming out of the bye are against the Giants (1–5), Chargers (2–3) and Raiders (3–3). So it’s not out of bounds to think there’s a chance they’re 6–3 going into Buffalo the Sunday before Thanksgiving. And then, I think, this becomes a little more real.
As for Rodgers’s side of this, what he’s trying to do doesn’t have much, if any, precedent. Then Rams RB Cam Akers made it back in six months, and for the team’s run to Super Bowl LVI, and that was seen as borderline miraculous. For Rodgers to get back for the 2023 playoffs, he’d be looking at a four-month timeline. Would he try to push that even further if the team was 7–6 in December and fighting to get in? Is the start of the playoffs even realistic?
No one’s certain, because, again, there’s no precedent here. But the way the Jets are playing has definitely created curiosity and hope.
From GangGreen718 (@kekelito816): Is Tee Higgins on the trade block?
Gang, as of right now, no, he’s not. That, of course, won’t stop teams from calling, and even making offers—and they should. He’s good enough to be someone’s No. 1 receiver and will be paid as such, whether it’s by the Bengals or someone else, at some point between now and March. That much I feel comfortable saying.
The problem for Cincinnati is it will have to pay Ja’Marr Chase a year from now, and it’s already spent a lot on its offensive line. And with a veteran defense to maintain, once you add things up, you find there are a lot of mouths to feed.
Which is why, if I’m the Bengals, I’m planning to franchise Higgins after the year. I agree with their stance not to trade him. When you have a quarterback like Joe Burrow, you should be putting everything you have, within reason, into winning now. You can still trade Higgins after franchise-tagging him in March like the Packers did with Davante Adams two offseasons ago—if negotiations on a long-term deal don’t go anywhere.
Of course, someone could blow the Bengals away over the next two weeks. I’d just say the offer would have to really blow me away to entertain the idea of doing a trade.
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From John Appleton (@jaa0109): What do the Broncos do with Wilson at QB? Related additional question: What team has the worst QB situation in the league?
John, I think the easiest way to look at the structure of the deal he signed—laced with rolling guarantees—is to see those guarantees as exit penalties for bailing from the contract. The cap can be massaged, but all the outgoing cash has to be accounted for sooner or later.
So if the Broncos cut Wilson after this year, they’d have to swallow a $39 million penalty for it (that’s his fully guaranteed $17 million base salary and $22 million option bonus for 2024). But if they wait a year and cut him after the ’24 season, the penalty is $37 million (his base salary figure for ’25, which becomes fully guaranteed this March). Essentially, to me, that means the real decision this offseason should be based on ’25.
Funny thing is Wilson hasn’t been the problem for Denver this year. He’s certainly been better than last year. Improving is one thing, but being willing to go forward with this sort of commitment, and hitching your job security to a guy, is something else entirely.
My guess would be Wilson is elsewhere in 2024.
From Jordan Reimer (@JordReimer): Is Brock Purdy an elite Quarterback?
Jordan, no, he’s not there with Patrick Mahomes or Joe Burrow or Josh Allen, or even Trevor Lawrence, Jalen Hurts, Justin Herbert or Lamar Jackson yet. But at his price ($870,000 salary this year, $985,000 in 2024, $1.1 million in ’25), and with the team he has around him, he has a chance to ascend into the top-third (or so) of quarterbacks in the league.
What’s interesting from there is how this shapes up to be a very solid litmus test on how far that can take you. Because while guys such as Joe Flacco, a second-year Wilson and Eli Manning had great runs to rings, there’s at least the perception out there that it’s much harder now to win it all with, say, the eighth- or 10th-best quarterback in football than it used to be.
Purdy, right now, is probably in that realm. What’ll help him is that he’s in the NFC, meaning he won’t have to beat, say, Burrow, Mahomes and Allen, or Mahomes, Herbert and Jackson in succession. But there would be one of them waiting for him in Las Vegas if the Niners get there, and that’d be after having to get past Hurts or two others to make it that far.
From Ed Helinski (@MrEd315): What teams have surprised you the most this season? And which ones have disappointed? Short answers are O.K.
Ed, I’ll give you a short answer then!
My pleasant surprises would be the Texans and Rams, and I’d say I thought the Dolphins and Lions would be good, but they’ve looked even better than that—like legitimate powers through six weeks. As for disappointments, the Panthers have to top the list. I didn’t expect a championship in Frank Reich’s first year, but it looked like a roster ready to contend. And then the Patriots and Giants would be two others that are falling short of what I’d have thought they’d be (which was middle-of-the-pack teams).
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From Bills Barber Shop (@Bills_562): Will the Bears fire their head coach at midseason? It's never happened before, but Matt Eberflus is bad.
Bill, I don’t think so. You’re right to look first at ownerships past. But beyond just that, I don’t see the sense in doing it. The team is still playing hard. And there’s not only no one you’d want to give an audition to there right now, but there’s also an existing shortage on the staff after defensive coordinator Alan Williams’s resignation a few weeks ago.
Given the situation, it makes the most sense to just keep going, and see where Eberflus can take the team over the Bears’ next 11 games, bleak as things may seem.
From Matt Ramas (@matt_ramas): If the Broncos continue to spiral, would there be a scenario in which they would trade Sean Payton for future draft picks?
Matt, that’s an interesting idea. But I doubt it.
I do believe ownership there has faith in Sean Payton, and I think they’ll afford Payton the opportunity to do a harder reset after the year, and flip the roster a bit. Which quite honestly is probably needed with all that’s happened in Denver the past two years.
From Mark (@Skolmark3124): What if the Vikings don’t draft high enough to get the QB they want?
Mark, if there’s not one they like where they’re picking, they should either trade up or just not take one in the first round. Just taking what’s left is what made Christian Ponder a Viking 11 years ago, even when there were a lot of folks that thought the 12th pick in 2011 was far from a first-round talent.
So if, say, you’re picking 12th again, and the three or four guys you have graded as first-rounders are gone, then you find a way to tread water with what you’ve got and wait another year. Pigeonholing yourself into taking a quarterback in a single draft is, most times, a really bad idea.
From thedude444 (@thedude4442): What do you think is the best number? I’d ask you a football question, but you are a journalist and not a football expert, so it doesn’t seem to make sense to ask a question about a topic you aren’t qualified to answer. So mine is 2. What number is your favorite?
Wow, Dude, that hurts. But 4 is the best number, because it was my football number.
From Gary Walker (@GaryPaulWalker): What would be the “dream” trade for the 49ers?
Gary, my dream trade, at this point for the Niners, would be either giving up a third-rounder to get Danielle Hunter from the Vikings, or finding a way to add some offensive line help with a starting-level player that has guard-tackle flexibility.
Otherwise, that roster is pretty good.
From Andrew (@ReturnOfAndrew): If Bill Belichick lost his job in New England, do you think he would have potential landing spots as a head coach in 2024?
Yes, Andrew. My question is whether someone would give him anything close to the control he has in New England (my guess would be no). But I definitely think he’d have opportunities to just go be the coach somewhere, or serve in the sort of over-the-top role that Bill Parcells (Miami), Mike Holmgren (Cleveland) and Tom Coughlin (Jacksonville) did in their golden NFL years.
And while we’re there, the NFC East, Belichick’s old home, would have a couple of interesting landing spots. If Washington owner Josh Harris is looking to buy credibility for his franchise (as Stephen Ross and Shad Khan once did as new owners with Parcells and Coughlin), hiring Belichick either to coach or be in a football czar position would give it to him. Then, there’s Dallas, if things really go the wrong way there (I don’t think they will).
Maybe one of these places gives him the keys to the kingdom like Robert Kraft once did. But if he wants to coach, or run a team, I think those opportunities will be out there.
Rob Schumacher/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK
From RealJimmyT (@slimjimisfunny): If the Giants are in a position to land a QB in the 2024 NFL draft such as Caleb Williams, Drake Maye or Michael Penix Jr., will they move on from Daniel Jones?
Jimmy, yes on Caleb Williams and Drake Maye, because if they’re in position to land them, that means they just finished a horrific season, and both the USC quarterback and the UNC quarterback would almost certainly be a better option. Less certain on Washington’s Penix. But, in any case, Jones has to play better, because next year is the final guaranteed year of the four-year deal the quarterback signed in March.
From Mark Allen (@MarkAllenMurphy): Not panic mode in Dallas yet, but is it getting close to time for Mike McCarthy to hand over the play-calling duties?
Mark, I think a big part of McCarthy taking over play-calling was to say—If I’m going down, I’m going down on my terms. So I don’t believe there are any plans to turn the trigger over to Brian Schottenheimer. But he does have a history of in-season fiddling with that role, which means you can’t rule it out, if things go the wrong way.
From Ethan Phelps (@TerriblyFunny14): If you could change anything about the NFL draft, what would it be?
Ethan, I’ll give you what I think football people would change—and that’s to move it up on the calendar, and move free agency back. As it stands now, the combine is at the end of February, free agency starts in mid-March and the draft is at the end of April. That schedule works best for the league, the owners and the players. The league and owners like it because it fills the calendar and creates a ton of run-up to the draft. For the players, veterans at least, get paid earlier in the offseason (getting money sooner is always better) and allows them to settle in new spots.
But for the actual football teams? Having it set up such as the NBA or NHL, where the draft comes first, would be better. The reason? The fundamental makeup of the two markets. The draft is value-based, while free agency is need-based. So, ideally, you’d like to go into the draft with a wider range of needs, fill those needs with the best players available, then fill in the blanks after that in free agency.
As it is, teams go into free agency looking to fill their needs, without knowing what the draft—where they have far less power cherry-picking players at a certain position—will bring. And that’s what leads to teams reaching on positions that they couldn’t fill in free agency. Which is something that I think the owners probably view as, well, a minor problem in the major business operation that the NFL offseason has become.
