KOLKATA: As unlocking unfolds with Covid numbers sliding, experts say, each phase of reopening will lead to a minor spurt in transmission that will help extend the ‘tail of the third wave’.
This may see fresh cases rise for a few days and the number of deaths remain constant till at least early-March but the spikes are likely to be small and the numbers will fall quickly, they predict.
While the number of fresh cases stayed below 200 in Kolkata on both Friday and Saturday, the city still recorded 10 deaths on Friday and 8 on Saturday. The state casualty figure, in fact, has remained above 30 a day for nearly a month.
With schools, colleges and universities reopening, a spurt in transmission is imminent, feels Institute of Post-Graduate Medical Education & Research professor Diptendra Sarkar. “As a new section ventures out with every unlocking, some more will be exposed to the virus and transmission is inevitable. But since infections have got mild, it will be a minor spike which will hit a trough quickly,” said Sarkar.
RN Tagore International Institute of Cardiac Sciences intensivist Sauren Panja says unlocking needs to continue as it will help to reduce the virulence and potency of the virus through herd immunity.
‘Unlockings must continue so as to reduce virulence’
Other than educational institutions, social gatherings at auditoria, cinema halls, malls, bars and restaurants have been allowed to operate with 75% capacity. Offices have also been 75% attendance.
RN Tagore International Institute of Cardiac Sciences (RTIICS) intensivist Sauren Panja said, “Due to a combination of factors, the number of cases has been dipping slowly during the third wave, which reached its peak quicker than the previous waves. But unlocking needs to continue for it will help reduce the virulence and potency of the virus through herd immunity. In the third wave, we have already seen a large number of people getting mild infections, which will strengthen their immunity. Subsequent waves could be like ordinary influenza and fewer people could be affected with even milder infection.”
The unlockings that followed the first and second wave peaks hadn’t seen a significant spurt since they were more spaced out, said Sarkar. “Now, we don’t need to space out reopenings for the disease has turned mild and hospitalisations have dropped,” he said.
Unlocking-induced spurts could see mild infections rise in number, which will not be threatening, said Peerless Hospital clinical research director Subhrojyoti Bhowmick. “Since the vast majority of the population in Kolkata and its neighbourhood has been vaccinated, we can fight minor transmissions now. After the third wave, we also have herd immunity, so unlocking needs to continue,” said Bhowmick.
Restrictions work when transmission is on a sudden, sharp spiral since the asymptomatic positives are kept away from the uninfected, said internal medicine consultant Arindam Biswas. “But with the virus losing its sting, we must now shift to the practice of short restrictions during a wave and return to normalcy quickly. This is the new normal,” Biswas added.
It is important, though, to conduct tests and determine the exact number of affected, felt Sarkar. “Even the mildly affected should get a rapid test done so that we can track and record every case. It will also help to curb transmission at every step, which, unfortunately, has not happened during the third wave,” he said.
