A cost of living campaign appears set to produce change in New Zealand, sending centre-right National into office after the October 14 election.
But to claim Wellington's Beehive, National must withstand a final-week push from incumbents Labour as it mounts a mighty scare campaign before polling day.
More than 500,000 Kiwis are believed to have already voted in the election, where all parties are pushing "change" narratives.
National's pitch is to "get New Zealand back on track", offering tax relief, government cuts and a law and order crackdown under leader Chris Luxon.
Mr Luxon is a former Air New Zealand chief executive and political protege of ex-National MP Sir John Key, who was handed a safe seat in 2020 and was installed as leader a year later.
Under his steady hand, National quashed ill-discipline and steadily improved its standing.
This week Mr Luxon hit a key milestone, charting as the preferred prime minister: the first time a National leader had done so since 2017.
A recent poll average shows National with 37 per cent support, well ahead of Labour on 27, a far cry from Jacinda Ardern's 50 per cent support in 2020.
When Ms Ardern left office in January, she handed the keys to Chris Hipkins, an affable career politician who was an architect of New Zealand's COVID-19 management.
It has not been an easy year for Mr Hipkins, overseeing a high-inflation and recessionary economy, and several undignified ministerial exits.
However, the 45-year-old insists that with his own mandate at this election, he can guide Kiwis from turbulent times in a fairer manner.
Key Labour promises include free basic dental care for under 30s, free prescription medicines and the removal of GST off fruit and vegetables.
A Labour win would defy history.
All seven post-WWII prime ministers to take on the job mid-term - Bill English, Jenny Shipley, Mike Moore, Geoffrey Palmer, Bill Rowling, Jack Marshall and Keith Holyoake - failed to win the next election.
The stars appear to be aligning for National, which researchers Ipsos found was the favoured party of Kiwis to handle the top five most important issues at this election: the cost of living, crime, housing, healthcare and the economy.
"The message is really clear. Kiwis want change," Mr Luxon said this week.
Labour's last gasp effort boils down to three key attack lines it will trumpet this week.
The first is National will bring austerity.
Day after day, Mr Hipkins and Finance Minister Grant Robertson savage National as reckless for proposing tax relief, which they say New Zealand can't afford, funded in part with public service cuts.
National have pledged to save $NZ1 billion ($A940 million) from the public sector, winding back spending on consultants and making 6.5 per cent cuts to the bureaucracy.
Labour's second attack line is National are economic illiterates who flunked their tax plans and is now misrepresenting them.
National has pledged to allow foreigners to buy high-worth homes in New Zealand and tax them, helping to pay for its promises.
However, with an overwhelming weight of economists and legal experts behind them, Labour say that promise is both under-budgeted and unimplementable due to New Zealand's signed international treaties.
Polling on the matter shows Kiwis believe Labour, but voters want the tax cuts anyway.
National have also been caught fibbing about its tax relief, which is up to $NZ250 ($A234) per family a fortnight, dependant on household income and children in child care.
Mr Luxon and finance spokeswoman Nicola Willis have often missed out the "up to", which Labour say has tricked Kiwis into thinking they will save more, when just 0.2 per cent of households will receive the headline figure.
On Sunday, the party unveiled a new advertisement with former prime minister Helen Clark cautioning against the cuts.
"I get it. When times are tough it's natural to look for change. But the question is change to what?" she asks.
"Change for tax cuts that deliver so little to people on low incomes? Tax cuts funded by skimping on the basic services Kiwis rely on, and selling our houses to offshore buyers?
"Policies like those would deepen poverty and inequality in our country."
Labour's third attack is a warning about National's coalition partners, including the great rapscallion of Kiwi politics: Winston Peters.
New Zealand's electoral system makes coalition-building the norm, and at this election, the six parties likely to boast MPs fall into two blocs of the left and right.
Labour's left bloc includes the left-wing Greens (polling at 13 per cent) and Maori Party (three per cent).
National's right bloc comprises libertarians ACT (nine per cent) and Mr Peters' populists NZ First, who has roared back into the reckoning at six per cent.
Both the Greens and ACT are polling near party highs, reflecting dissatisfaction with the major parties.
While earlier polls showed a National-ACT coalition was likely, the emergence of NZ First means Mr Luxon's government will likely be a three-headed beast.
ACT leader David Seymour and Mr Peters regularly trade insults on the campaign trail and have a well-known distrust of each other.
As Mr Luxon tells Kiwis on a daily basis he would only deal with NZ First as a last resort, Mr Hipkins counters Mr Luxon will find his "coalition of chaos and cuts" unmanageable.
Last week, National wheeled out its own former leader - Mr Key - who urged Kiwis not to flirt with minor parties and end up "in limbo land" after the election.
That may be the only thing Kiwis can't avoid, given Labour would lead its own tripartite coalition - the most left-wing government in Kiwi history - if it can defy the polls.
