One of the best stories of the NBA 2K23 Summer League thus far is how well Sacramento Kings rookie Keegan Murray has performed.
Sacramento’s front office raised some eyebrows when they selected Murray at No. 4 in the 2022 NBA Draft, one spot ahead of Purdue’s Jaden Ivey. The choice was met with immediate scrutiny. But the Kings’ brass was reportedly “unanimous” with the decision, which has already looked smart.
Although we have only seen Murray play during the exhibition games of Summer League, early returns on the sample size are incredibly promising. Murray has scored 20 points or more in five of his six games played thus far.
According to ESPN, the other thirteen lottery picks have combined for just six 20-point games. Indiana’s Bennedict Mathurin is the only other player selected in the lottery who has multiple 20-point outings thus far.
Keegan Murray dropped 29 points for the Kings tonight, already his 5th 20-point game of this Summer League.
The other 13 lottery picks from the 2022 Draft have combined for 6 total 20-point games, and only Bennedict Mathurin (2) has multiple. pic.twitter.com/kVNLc0J48h
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) July 14, 2022
When facing Orlando and No. 1 pick Paolo Banchero, we saw some early magic from Murray. The rookie nailed an improbable buzzer-beating 3-pointer to send the game into overtime, showcasing remarkable poise.
He is shooting 39.5 percent on his 3-pointers, and if you remove his singular poor shooting performance against the Heat on July 3, that number would go up to 44.4 percent.
I’m particularly encouraged by Murray because of the self-creation we have seen from him as a shooter. Murray predominantly shot off the catch while in college, but like Holmgren, we have seen him use the bounce more often as a pro.
Murray has connected on 9 jump shots off the dribble, per Synergy, compared to 13 through all of last season. This is how he is finishing 24.1 percent of his offensive possessions during Summer League, nearly triple his rate as a sophomore at Iowa.
All of that, of course, is without mentioning his defensive playmaking and athleticism. Both are on full display in the clip below:
Keegan Murray with the steal and the dunk! pic.twitter.com/6tbX5LOcvH
— Kings Film Room (@SacFilmRoom) July 14, 2022
When I spoke to Murray before the 2022 NBA Draft, I asked him about his goals during his first professional season. Here is what he said:
“I want to win Rookie of the Year. That’s a goal of mine. I haven’t won Player of the Year in anything before. So I think that would be cool. You obviously have to earn it, though. You can’t just prance into the NBA. You’ve got to earn everything you’re given, so I want to go in with that mindset, and create a winning culture within whatever team I’m on.”
Murray opened with the fifth-best odds to win Rookie of the Year, as noted by my colleague Prince Grimes. The set opening line suggested an implied probability of 11.8 percent, debuting at +750 odds.
The odds have shifted in the weeks since then, but not in the direction one would expect. Murray is now at +900 on Tipico Sportsbook, lowering his implied probability to just 10 percent.
It’s too soon to say with much certainty whether or not Murray will reach his goal of winning Rookie of the Year. But considering how productive he has been thus far, that bet is an excellent value play.
Perhaps oddsmakers believe Sacramento’s frontcourt is too crowded by Domantas Sabonis and Richaun Holmes for Murray’s success to translate. However, with how well Murray is shooting the ball, I think he can likely play on the perimeter during the regular season.
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