Rishi Sunak does not have long to persuade the public he is a better option than Keir Starmer to run the country.
The prime minister is trailing badly in the polls and desperately seeking popular policies Labour would not back, or “dividing lines” in political terms.
But in the king’s speech, he has not managed to rustle up many big ideas that place him on the side of the electorate in opposition to Labour.
His greatest hope for differentiating from Starmer are new laws on crime and energy. On oil and gas, he has a bill to encourage greater exploitation of North Sea resources, while Labour wants to stop new licences for fossil fuels.
On law and order, there are a range of new policies toughening up sentencing, and measures to tackle knife crime. But there is a good chance Labour will refuse to fall into the trap of opposing many of these measures for fear of being painted as soft on crime.
Sunak’s advisers believe the Tories have a strong record on crime rates but Labour begs to differ, highlighting a court system in crisis, crumbling and overcrowded jails and a lack of police responsiveness to crimes such as burglary.
With more than 20 bills on offer, many of the other pieces of legislation are carried over from the last session of parliament or dealing with relatively niche issues, such as banning councils from boycotting goods from certain countries on political grounds.
What is perhaps most telling about the legislative programme is that there is very little attention paid to some of the issues that voters care about the most: an absence of measures to help the NHS beyond the smoking ban, nothing concrete on education, little on the environment except for a long delayed animal welfare bill, no improvements to employment rights, nor any direct measures to address the cost of living crisis.
The closest the speech comes to offering change that has a meaningful impact on people’s lives are Michael Gove’s renters’ reform and leasehold reform bills, designed to improve the housing market.
Labour will use its response to the king’s speech to say that Sunak is risking a “lost generation” of children, with one in four expected to miss school regularly, and to highlight the lack of mental health provision for them.
As the election approaches, the lack of an attractive offering to ordinary voters risks becoming Sunak’s biggest weakness and a barrier to him trying to claim he is a “change” candidate.
His policies at the Conservative party conference did not have broad consumer appeal – a smoking ban, future A-level changes and scrapping HS2 – leading to backbench grumbling that Sunak’s preoccupation with narrow issues was creating a missed opportunity to win back support.
The prime minister’s next chance to make an impact will be a reshuffle and the autumn statement in the coming weeks. Conservative MPs will be hoping for a sign of tax cuts to come or other voter-friendly measures to help people struggling with the effects of inflation.
Without big new policies, they will fear that too little is being done to shift the dial with voters, and that the Tories cannot go into an election relying, as in the past, on claims of being a safe economic pair of hands and competent government when Liz Truss and Boris Johnson have destroyed that reputation.
Neither are any of the king’s speech bills particularly relevant to Sunak’s main priorities – stopping small boats, cutting waiting lists, bearing down on inflation, improving the economy and reducing debt – although the prime minister would argue many of his bills are aimed at supporting growth.
It all adds up to a sense that Sunak lacks an overarching narrative on where his government is going over the next year – apart from his slogan about taking decisions for the long term. Nerves in the party are unlikely to be soothed by today’s speech.
