It’s a virus that’s left devastation in its wake overseas, killing millions of birds and forcing entire poultry farms into lockdown.
Now, with the highly pathogenic H5N1 strain detected closer to home, with six confirmed cases in Australia, the question isn’t so much whether it will arrive here, but when – and if we’ll be ready.
“There are a lot of different kinds of bird flus, kind of like there are different kinds of human flus,” Newsroom senior political reporter Marc Daalder tells The Detail.
“We have influenza A and B, and we had H1N1 and so on, and it’s the same in birds.
“They’re broadly grouped into two umbrellas. There’s the low pathogenic avian influenza, which means these are kind of like a cold for birds. They’re not going to be particularly problematic. And then there’s high pathogenic avian influenza, and this H5N1 strain is very much the latter.
“It can be very devastating to a wide range of animals.”
First identified in Asia in the 1990s, the current H5N1 strain has spent the past six years sweeping across continents, infecting wild birds, poultry, and even marine mammals.
Although New Zealand remains free of the virus, for now, experts say preparation has become the priority.
“The view among experts … is that once it arrives here in New Zealand, we won’t be able to eradicate it,” Daalder says.
“And so then we kind of need to transition to a period of learning how to live with it, how to protect our native species and how to protect our poultry industry.”
So what happens if bird flu does reach our shores?
The first sign is likely to be a positive laboratory test after reports of sick or dead birds.
From there, New Zealand’s response would move quickly, says Daalder.
The Ministry for Primary Industries would work alongside poultry producers, and the Department of Conservation would begin tracking the outbreak and identifying the species most at risk, while health officials would monitor any potential risk to people.
“Potentially, quite quickly, we could see a chicken lockdown in some parts of the country,” Daalder says.
DOC has already developed regional response plans and continues to monitor wild birds through ongoing surveillance programmes.
This week, it began vaccinating some of our rarest bird species, following a successful trial last year.
“Those results came back very positive,” Daalder says. “These are birds under very close management … where a disease outbreak could have a really, really big impact.”
The stakes are particularly high for a bird-proud country, he says.
“We value birds as a country … they’re an important part of our national identity. We are Kiwis.”
But conservation is only one piece of the bird flu puzzle. For New Zealand’s poultry industry, preparation has been years in the making.
“I describe us not as worried, but as watchful … or as someone said the other day… we’re alert, but not alarmed,” Fiona MacMillan, Executive Director of the Poultry Industry Association of New Zealand and Egg Producers Federation, tells The Detail.
“We’ve been expecting this for a long time.”
She compares it to preparing for an exam.
“You’ve got that feeling of a little bit of trepidation … but you’ve had time to study. We’ve been doing that. We’ve been quite nerdy about it … and we’ve got ourselves to a high state of readiness.”
That preparation centres on one thing: biosecurity.
From strict hygiene procedures and controlled access to farms, to vehicle wheel washes and something as simple as keeping outside boots separate from inside ones, every layer is designed to stop disease crossing the farm gate, says MacMillan.
If H5N1 does get into a commercial poultry flock, however, the consequences can be swift.
“It will kill 90 to 95 percent of any poultry flock it gets into,” MacMillan says. “You would start seeing symptoms and deaths within 48 hours … it’s brutal.”
Overseas, outbreaks have resulted in thousands of birds being culled, and farms locked down for months.
New Zealand producers are preparing for that possibility too.
Free-range chickens could be temporarily moved indoors to protect them from infected wild birds, while infected farms would likely be depopulated and disinfected before they could reopen.
“It’s going to be tough if it happens to you,” MacMillan says. “So let’s keep focusing on prevention, because that’s what we can control.”
Unlike overseas, New Zealanders aren’t rushing supermarket shelves for eggs or chicken, and MacMillan says for consumers, there is no need to panic.
She says it’s simply too early to know whether prices or supply would be affected if bird flu arrives.
Both MacMillan and Daalder agree that vigilance is key.
Daalder says people should watch for clusters of dead birds or marine mammals, or birds showing unusual behaviour such as difficulty flying, tremors, twisted necks or trouble breathing.
“If it looks unwell, it can’t hurt to call DOC or MPI,” he says.
As for the risk to people, it remains low.
The virus does not currently spread easily between humans, although New Zealand has a small stockpile of pre-pandemic vaccines that could be used for frontline workers if required, he says.
“The immediate risk is primarily for people working directly with infected animals,” Daalder says.
Though it’s not at pandemic levels yet, he still warns the virus deserves respect.
“Things can change in infectious diseases. There’s no reason to run out and start buying toilet paper now. But this is a serious issue.
“Even if you couldn’t care less about the kiwi, there’s still a reason to care about this.”
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