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The Street
The Street
Ian Krietzberg

Key Tesla investor says Cybertruck launch can save the brand

Almost exactly four years to the day Tesla (TSLA) -) CEO Elon Musk unveiled the Cybertruck — the company's electrified answer to the ever-popular pickup truck — it is finally ready to make its way into the hands of eager, patient customers. 

After suffering through years of production setbacks and missed deadlines, Tesla will be hosting its Cybertruck launch event Nov. 30. The event, which will take place at Tesla's Texas Gigafactory, randomly selected a limited number of shareholders to attend in person. 

The event will additionally be livestreamed. 

Related: Why Elon Musk changed his Tesla tune between the second and third quarters

Even as the launch date approaches, plenty of details about the truck remain unknown. 

When he first unveiled it in 2019, Musk said the vehicle would start at $39,900, with higher-performance models going for $49,9000 and $59,900. But that was four years ago, and Tesla has been quiet about its updated starting price for the vehicle. 

Car and Driver estimated last month, based on a NHTSA document, that the dual-motor version of the Cybertruck will start at $70,000 and the tri-motor version will start at $80,000. The documents indicate that Tesla will not offer the cheaper single-motor option in 2024. 

According to a crowdsourced Cybertruck reservation tally, there have been more than two million Cybertruck reservations so far. 

But the delivery event will be comparatively small. Tesla, according to Javier Verdura, the company's global director of product design, is only going to deliver the "first 10" models of the vehicle during the Cybertruck launch event. 

During its third-quarter earnings call, Musk worked to temper excitement about the Cybertruck, saying that he doesn't expect the truck to be profitable for the next 12 to 18 months due to issues with production and scalability. 

"We dug our own grave with Cybertruck," he said during the call. "The ramp is going to be extremely difficult. There's no way around that."

Musk has predicted that Tesla will be making 250,000 Cybertrucks a year by 2025. 

Related: Tesla Chief Elon Musk's legal troubles mount with powerful new ruling

Cybertruck and the stock 

The launch of Cybertruck, according to Gary Black, managing partner at the Future Fund, should create a positive "halo effect" that is likely to stimulate sales across Tesla's franchise. 

The event, he said, could be similar to the company's 2020 launch of the Model Y, a vehicle that seemingly boosted sales of Tesla's Model 3. 

"History doesn’t repeat but it often rhymes," he said

Black's hope of overall sales stimulation is one shared by uber bull Cathie Wood, who said earlier in the month that when people see the Cybertruck, "they are going to get very excited about the next big leg for Tesla: the truck market."

Wood, however, contended at the time that despite this excitement over the launch, the next period for Tesla will be a volatile one because of the scaling issues that Musk highlighted. 

Deepwater's Gene Munster said in October, however, that the release of Cybertruck should mark a "positive for Tesla shares." 

Tesla's stock, up around 90% for the year, lifted slightly Monday morning. 

Ross Gerber, the CEO and president of Gerber Kawasaki Wealth and Investment Management, said Sunday that "launch events are nice but the big question is how many Tesla Cybertrucks can they make a week."

TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo estimated in October that Tesla will ship between 100 and 200 Cybertrucks by the end of 2023, a range that will spike to at least 100,000 for 2024 and 240,000 by 2025. 

Contact Ian with tips via email, ian.krietzberg@thearenagroup.net, or Signal 732-804-1223.

Related: Why Tesla stock is crumbling — and where it could go next

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