The road to the Super Bowl is paved with key plays that shape the outcome of each game. As this year's matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers draws near, it's important to reflect on the game-changing moments that led these teams to the grand stage. Thanks to win probability charts provided by numberFire, we can analyze the plays that had the biggest impact on each team's chances of winning during the postseason.
In the Wild-Card Round, the Houston Texans faced off against the Cleveland Browns. With the Browns trailing 24-14, they were in desperate need of a comeback. However, Steven Nelson of the Texans dashed their hopes when he intercepted Joe Flacco's pass and returned it 82 yards for a touchdown. This play increased Houston's win probability by 22.38% and effectively sealed the game for the Texans.
The Kansas City Chiefs encountered the Miami Dolphins in a frigid playoff clash. The Chiefs were leading by a slender margin of 10-7 when Patrick Mahomes broke free for a 28-yard scramble on fourth-and-5. This crucial gain increased Kansas City's chances of winning by 11.5% and prevented the Dolphins from gaining momentum. Although the Chiefs settled for a field goal on that drive, they maintained control of the game.
The Green Bay Packers faced the Dallas Cowboys in a matchup that saw the Packers dominating from the start. With a commanding 27-0 lead, the Packers further solidified their chances of winning when Darnell Savage intercepted Dak Prescott's pass and returned it 64 yards for a touchdown. This play increased Green Bay's win probability by 11.9% and left the Cowboys trailing by an insurmountable margin.
The Detroit Lions found themselves in a closely contested game against the Los Angeles Rams. With the Lions leading 24-23, the Rams were driving with hopes of taking the lead. However, a crucial holding penalty on offensive lineman Rob Havenstein pushed the Rams back, ultimately increasing Detroit's chances of winning by 29.39%. The Lions capitalized on this opportunity and managed to run out the clock, securing their victory.
Another key play unfolded during the clash between the Buffalo Bills and the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers had driven to the Buffalo 4-yard line, poised to close the gap on the 14-point deficit. However, Kaiir Elam of the Bills intercepted Mason Rudolph's pass in the end zone, increasing Buffalo's win probability by 7.18%. Unable to recover from this setback, the Steelers fell short in their comeback attempt.
In their matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Philadelphia Eagles needed a strong start but found themselves trailing 10-0 early on. Baker Mayfield of the Buccaneers connected with David Moore on a 44-yard touchdown pass, increasing Tampa Bay's chances of winning by 12.35%. This play set the tone for the game and left the Eagles with an uphill battle.
Moving on to the Divisional Round, the Baltimore Ravens faced the Houston Texans. In a tightly contested game, the Texans missed a crucial 47-yard field goal attempt just before halftime. This play increased Baltimore's chances of winning by 7.65% and halted any momentum the Texans had generated in the second quarter, ultimately leading to the Ravens' dominance in the latter half of the game.
The San Francisco 49ers encountered the Green Bay Packers in a game filled with momentum swings. Down 21-17 late in the fourth quarter, the 49ers needed a touchdown to secure the win. Christian McCaffrey's 6-yard touchdown run increased San Francisco's chances of winning by 28.54% and propelled them to victory, overcoming the Packers' early lead.
The Detroit Lions faced the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a game that saw the Lions maintain control from start to finish. Aidan Hutchinson's sack on Baker Mayfield shifted the win probability in Detroit's favor by 10.17%. This pivotal defensive play prevented the Buccaneers from capitalizing in their attempt to take the lead and ensured the Lions' unrelenting hold on the game.
The Kansas City Chiefs clashed with the Buffalo Bills in a closely fought battle that came down to the wire. With the game tied at 24, the Bills' Tyler Bass missed a crucial 44-yard field goal attempt with 1:43 remaining. This play increased Kansas City's chances of winning by 25.68% and allowed the Chiefs to secure a game-clinching first down, sealing their victory.
Lastly, in the Conference Championships, the Chiefs faced the Ravens. With a 17-7 lead, the Chiefs' defense made a game-changing play when L'Jarius Sneed forced a fumble by Zay Flowers near the goal line. Trent McDuffie recovered in the end zone for a touchback, increasing Kansas City's chances of winning by 18.19% and extinguishing any hope of a late comeback from the Ravens.
Meanwhile, the Lions had a thrilling battle against the 49ers. Trailing 24-7 at halftime, the 49ers staged a remarkable comeback. Tashaun Gipson forced a fumble by Jahmyr Gibbs, and Arik Armstead recovered the ball for San Francisco at the Detroit 24. This play increased the 49ers' chances of winning by 17.89% and set the stage for their victory as they went on to grab the lead and secure the win.
As we approach the Super Bowl, these key plays serve as a reminder of the pivotal moments that can shape a team's path to championship glory. The ability to capitalize on these opportunities will be crucial for both the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers, as they strive to etch their names in football history.
