We’ve arrived at what is arguably the best weekend on the NFL calendar.
Eight teams. All with genuine belief they can get to the Super Bowl. Four great games.
In the AFC, it’s the classic case of an established power going against the upstart. However, the latter is the conference’s No. 1 seed and at home this time around, with the Broncos hosting the Bills to start the weekend. Then on Sunday, the Patriots welcome in the red-hot Texans, who have gone 12–2 to reach this point after beginning their season 0–3.
Meanwhile, the NFC has three teams from the West still alive alongside the Bears. On Saturday night, we’ll have the rubber match with the Seahawks and 49ers in the Pacific Northwest, as San Francisco tries to beat Seattle in its building for the second time this season. Then, Sunday’s nightcap gives us the Bears and Rams in frigid Chicago, with winds expected to gust up to 40 mph.
But we start in the Mile High City, where the Broncos are attempting to reach their first AFC title game since 2015, while simultaneously knocking out Josh Allen in the year with perhaps his best chance yet to win a ring.
Bills (12–5) at Broncos (14–3)
Spread: Broncos -1.5
Key matchup: Denver’s pass rush vs. Josh Allen
Key stat: The Broncos have the fifth-highest blitz rate in the NFL.
Date, Time, TV: 4:30 p.m. ET Saturday, CBS
There’s no such thing as a good way to defend Josh Allen. It’s mostly about attempting to find the best strategy to limit him.
That’s the challenge facing Broncos defensive coordinator Vance Joseph this weekend. Denver, owner of 14 wins largely because of the league’s second-ranked defense and NFL-best 68 sacks, now faces the reigning MVP in his quest to reach the Super Bowl for the first time.
If Joseph stays with what’s worked all year, expect the Broncos to blitz plenty. Denver ranks fifth in blitz rate at 32.1% and records pressure on 40.7% of dropbacks, second only to the Vikings. This could pose a problem for Buffalo, which despite having star tackles in Dion Dawkins and Spencer Brown, saw Allen get dumped 40 times this season. Only six quarterbacks were sacked more often in 2025.
Additionally, Allen has struggled against the blitz compared to when facing three- and four-man rushes. When not being blitzed, Allen has a +0.12 EPA per dropback with 18 touchdown passes against five interceptions. But when extra pressure is brought, his EPA per dropback sinks to +0.07 while tossing seven touchdowns to five interceptions.
For the Bills to win, they’ll need NFL rushing champion James Cook to slow the Denver pass rush while Allen makes a few superstar plays. That, and a dose of defense against Bo Nix.
Verdict: Buffalo 20, Denver 17
49ers (12–5) at Seahawks (14–3)
Spread: Seahawks -7.5
Key matchup: Christian McCaffrey vs. Seattle’s front seven
Key stat: McCaffrey finished second in the NFL in total yards with 2,126.
Date, Time, TV: 8 p.m. ET Saturday, FOX
The 49ers should be beaming with pride. Despite losing Fred Warner, Nick Bosa, Trent Williams, George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, Ricky Pearsall and Brock Purdy for either all or significant chunks of the season, here they are.
Unfortunately for San Francisco, its Cinderella run might be closing in on midnight. The Seahawks are not only healthy but they’re at home and coming off a bye, while the Niners arrive at Lumen Field without Kittle who tore his Achilles tendon on Sunday in the win over Philadelphia. To win, coach Kyle Shanahan has almost no choice but to rely solely on All-Pro running back Christian McCaffrey, who accounted for 114 yards and two touchdowns against the Eagles.
For Seattle, the job will be simple. Limit McCaffrey, don’t make the big mistakes and advance. The Seahawks did a great job of this in Santa Clara back in Week 18, holding McCaffrey to 57 total yards on 14 touches in a 13–3 triumph. Running the ball has been a slog all season for San Francisco, ranking a mediocre 15th at -0.03 EPA per rush. McCaffrey ran for 1,202 yards and 10 touchdowns, but on just 3.9 yards per carry.
Against the Seahawks, it’ll be tough to get going. Seattle allows -0.18 EPA per rush, by far the league’s best margin. Not surprisingly, Seattle is also tops in YPC against at 3.7, while not having surrendered a single 100-yard rusher this season. In fact, only Kyren Williams topped 90 yards, going for 91 in a Week 11 Rams’ win.
For the Niners to find success as a considerable underdog, McCaffrey needs to rack up yards in every way. It won’t be easy.
Verdict: Seattle 27, San Francisco 17
Texans (12–5) at Patriots (14–3)
Spread: Patriots -3
Key matchup: Houston’s defense vs. Drake Maye and his line
Key stat: The Texans have posted a league-best -0.26 EPA per pass against.
Date, Time, TV: 2 p.m. ET Sunday, ESPN
If a team can win because it never allows another point, the Texans are the favorites to raise the Lombardi Trophy.
Houston has been brilliant defensively this season, ranking first in yards allowed and second in points allowed. The Texans are also seventh in sacks (47) and eighth in sack percentage (7.6%), led by the ferocious edge-rushing tandem of Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter. The duo has combined for 27 sacks and 45 QB hits, along with 1.5 sacks in Monday night’s 30–6 blasting of the Steelers.
This weekend, the Texans will face a more formidable challenger in the second-seeded Patriots, who are coming off a 16–3 win of their own against the Chargers in the opening round. After going 6-of-15 with an interception in the first half, MVP candidate Drake Maye settled down, completing 11-of-14 passes in the second half along with a touchdown to Hunter Henry.
With Houston’s offense potentially missing star receiver Nico Collins with a concussion, the Texans will need another Herculean effort from the defense to advance. Luckily for them, it’s possible and especially so against New England’s offensive line, which allowed Maye to be sacked 47 times in the regular season, fourth-most in the NFL. Then, there’s the league’s best secondary with corners Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter, and safeties Jalen Pitre and Calen Bullock, a group permitting a league-low -0.26 EPA per pass.
New England has a more well-rounded team. Houston has a monster defense.
Verdict: New England 13, Houston 10
Rams (12–5) at Bears (11–6)
Spread: Rams -3.5
Key matchup: Matthew Stafford vs. Bears’ pass defense
Key stat: Chicago ranks 27th in pressure rate at 31.6%.
Date, Time, TV: 5:30 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC
This game will have myriad factors including the weather, which will be well below zero degrees with the wind chill. One also has to account for Caleb Williams and his penchant for fourth-quarter comebacks, having a league-high seven of them including last week’s heartstopper against the Packers.
But nothing will decide the game more than whether the Bears can fluster Matthew Stafford and the Rams’ high-octane passing game. This season, wideouts Puka Nacua and Davante Adams combined for 2,504 yards and 24 touchdowns. No receiver tandem scored more in 2025, and only the Cowboys (George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb) and the Lions (Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams) had duos with more yardage.
Meanwhile, the Bears rank 27th in yards per attempt against at 7.6. They also rank 30th in air yards permitted at 2,535. The pass rush hasn’t been helping, sitting 27th in pressure rate (31.6%) despite being 12th in blitz rate (28.7%) under coordinator Dennis Allen. Last week, Jordan Love threw for 323 yards and four touchdowns even with a far-lesser receiving corps than the one in Los Angeles.
For the Bears, they’ll have some good old-fashioned Chicago weather to help slow down the Rams’ pass attack. But when the wind isn’t whipping and Stafford drops back, can the Bears do enough to pull the upset?
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Key Matchups, Predictions for Every 2025 NFL Divisional Round Playoff Game.
