At last, Kevin Durant is expected to make his return Wednesday from an MCL sprain that has sidelined him since Jan. 8 when he was still with the Brooklyn Nets.
His debut with the Phoenix Suns will come against the Charlotte Hornets, a bottom-four team in the NBA that just lost star point guard LaMelo Ball to an ankle fracture. Phoenix is favored on the road by 9.5 points, making it the perfect tune-up game for Durant and his new teammates.
With how seamless of a game Durant has, I don’t expect a very long adjustment period. Neither does the betting public, hammering the over on a strangely low 20.5-points prop line at BetMGM.
Kevin Durant point total 20.5 in @Suns debut.
86% of bets and 92% of money on the OVER at @BetMGM pic.twitter.com/4QxQ7fhNoX
— John Ewing 🦁 (@johnewing) March 1, 2023
Public is anticipating a big game for Kevin Durant in his Phoenix Suns debut:
95% of bets, 99% of money at @CaesarsSports on OVER 20.5 points for Durant tonight
— Ben Fawkes (@BFawkes22) March 1, 2023
However, there’s a reason why Durant’s line is nine points lower than his 29.7 season average.
For starters, Durant will be on a minutes restriction and we don’t know exactly what that looks like. If he’s playing 30 minutes rather than his typical 36, the over is still a given. But it could also be closer to 20-25 minutes, which changes things a bit.
Then, there’s also the potential for a blowout, which could further eat into his minutes if key players get to rest in the second half. The Suns don’t need 21 points from Durant to beat the Hornets, though he could score that many points in his sleep if he wants.
And that’s the last part. What’s Phoenix’s plan? Do they want to feed Durant and let him get into a scoring rhythm early? Or do they want him to just go through the motions to get a feel for a new system?
If you’re going to bet on this prop, you definitely take the over because you almost never get a line this low for Durant, who only has four games all year with fewer than 21 points. But the number of variables at play leave me inclined to lay off this action.
