With the stage now all set for the withdrawal of the four-month southwest monsoon season, Kerala can now heave a sigh of relief with September witnessing an above average performance of the monsoon. The monsoon deficit which was hovering around the 50% mark during the end of August, has now come down to 38% aided by a late surge, with hardly five days left before the formal ending of the season.
According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the conditions are becoming favourable for the withdrawal of the southwest monsoon from parts of Rajasthan by September 25 with dry weather prevailing over parts of southwest Rajasthan. For the withdrawal of the monsoon, rainfall activity over northwest India has to cease for five continuous days and there should be a reduction in moisture and anti-cyclonic activity up to 1.5 km.
Though withdrawal is likely to begin in a day, Kerala may witness a few more isolated intense spells triggered by the weather systems over the Bay of Bengal and due to the position of the monsoon trough. An extended forecast issued by the IMD hints at above average rainfall till the first week of October. This is expected to bring down the rainfall deficit by a couple of notches.
