LEXINGTON, Ky. — With only one month left until the 149th running of the Kentucky Derby on May 6 at Churchill Downs in Louisville, one horse has separated itself from the pack as a clear front-runner for this year’s Run for the Roses.
Forte — trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr. — has been nothing short of sensational in his racing career.
Forte has six wins in seven career starts, including in each of his last five races dating back to September.
This stretch includes triumphs in the Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes (Saratoga), the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity (Keeneland), the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (Keeneland), the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth (Gulfstream) and the Grade 1 Florida Derby (Gulfstream).
In that Florida Derby win on Saturday, Forte overcame an undesirable post draw (No. 11 in a 12-horse field) and charged late in the final sixteenth of a mile to go from third to first.
As Forte has established himself as the preeminent 3-year-old in his class, time is running out for another top challenger to emerge on the Derby prep circuit.
A total of 44 Kentucky Derby qualifying races have been run, with 33 as part of the American road to the Derby, seven as part of the European road and four as part of the Japanese road.
The American leaderboard is headlined by the aforementioned Forte (190 points), with Angel of Empire (154 points) and Two Phil’s (123 points) comprising the top three.
The European leaderboard was topped by Brave Emperor (IRE) with 32 points. Brave Emperor sealed his Derby spot, should his connections want it, with a third-place finish last Saturday in the Cardinal Condition Stakes in England.
The Japanese leaderboard was paced by Continuar (JPN) with 40 points.
Of note, Derma Sotogake (JPN) is fourth on the American leaderboard with 100 points and will be racing in the Derby after winning the UAE Derby last month, a race that is considered part of the American road to the Derby despite being held in the Middle East.
Continuar finished third in the UAE Derby and appears set to also take part in the Derby via the Japanese pathway.
The 20-horse Derby field features 18 spots reserved for horses that qualify through the American pathway, and one spot each for a Europe-based and Japan-based horse.
Only four races remain that will award qualifying points toward the Kentucky Derby, and all will be contested in the Untied States.
Two of these races will occur as part of the 2023 Spring Meet at Keeneland — the Blue Grass Stakes (Saturday) and the Lexington Stakes (April 15).
The other two qualifying points races are both on Saturday — the Wood Memorial (Aqueduct) and the Santa Anita Derby (Santa Anita).
All three of Saturday’s qualifying races — the Wood Memorial, Blue Grass and Santa Anita — will award qualifying points to the top-five finishers on a 100-40-30-20-10 scale.
The Lexington Stakes, as usual, will be the final qualifying points race ahead of the Derby and will offer qualifying points on a 20-8-6-4-2 scale to the top finishers.
With this as the context, here’s a quick look at five of the top Derby contenders to know (in alphabetical order) with the race just a month away.
Angel of Empire
— Caesars odds: 14-1.
— Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 154 (second on American leaderboard).
— Performance: A winner in four of six career starts, Angel of Empire has stacked together two of the most impressive performances on this year’s Derby trail: victories in the Grade 2 Risen Star (Fair Grounds) and the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby (Oaklawn Park).
Angel of Empire recorded an Equibase Speed Figure of 106 in last Saturday’s Arkansas Derby romp, which he won by more than four lengths after a smooth trip along the outside.
Angel of Empire figures to be Louisville native Brad Cox’s best chance to secure a much-desired “live” Derby win. Cox also trained Mandaloun, which was awarded the 2021 Kentucky Derby victory after Medina Spirit’s disqualification.
— Trainer: Brad Cox.
— Owner: Albaugh Family Stables LLC.
— Family ties: Sired by Classic Empire, who won the 2016 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland, the 2016 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita and the 2017 Arkansas Derby. Classic Empire finished fourth in the 2017 Kentucky Derby and finished second in the 2017 Preakness Stakes.
Forte
— Caesars odds: 2-1.
— Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 190 (first on American leaderboard).
— Performance: Forte has been the superstar of the Derby prep circuit. In all four of his most recent wins — Breeders’ Futurity, Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby — Forte has recorded an Equibase Speed Figure of 102 or greater.
Forte is also on track to try and accomplish a rare feat in horse racing: Only Street Sense (2007) and Nyquist (2016) have won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and the Kentucky Derby before.
— Trainer: Todd Pletcher.
— Owners: Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable.
— Family ties: Sired by Violence, who won three of four career starts from August 2012 to February 2013.
Practical Move
— Caesars odds: 10-1.
— Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 60 (sixth on American leaderboard).
— Performance: Originally bred by trainer Chad Brown but now in the barn of Tim Yakteen, Practical Move has finished in the money in all six career starts. So far in 2023, Practical Move has only raced once, a win in early March in the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes (Santa Anita) in which he recorded an Equibase speed figure of 108.
Practical Move is set to run in Saturday’s Santa Anita Derby in California.
All seven of Practical Move’s starts ahead of a likely Derby appearance are set to have been in the Golden State.
— Trainer: Tim Yakteen.
— Owners: Leslie and Pierre Amestoy, Roger Beasley.
— Family ties: Sired by Practical Joke, who ran fifth in the 2017 Kentucky Derby and second in the 2017 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland.
Tapit Trice
— Caesars odds: 10-1.
— Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 50 (11th on American leaderboard).
— Performance: One of the standout horses set to race in Saturday’s Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, Tapit Trice has three wins in four career starts, including a 2-for-2 effort so far this year.
The gray colt’s only win of consequence was a come-from-behind triumph in the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby last month, but he figures to be a top choice to win at Keeneland this weekend, along with the Ben Colebrook-trained Raise Cain (ninth on the American leaderboard with 54 Derby qualifying points).
— Trainer: Todd Pletcher.
— Owners: Whisper Hill Farm and Gainesway Stable.
— Family ties: Sired by Tapit, who finished ninth in the 2004 Kentucky Derby.
Two Phil’s
— Caesars odds: 28-1.
— Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 123 (third on American leaderboard).
— Performance: A winner in four of eight career starts, Two Phil’s has placed in the money in his last four starts, all of which were graded stakes.
The big breakthrough came in late March at Turfway Park in Florence, with a victory by more than five lengths in the Grade 3 Jeff Ruby Steaks.
Two Phil’s ascendance has made a feel-good story out of 35-year-old jockey Jareth Loveberry, who suffered a fibula fracture in a starting gate accident earlier this year, but he now finds himself in position to make his first ever Kentucky Derby start.
— Trainer: Larry Rivelli.
— Owners: Patricia’s Hope LLC and Phillip Sagan.
— Family ties: Sired by Hard Spun, who was second in the 2007 Kentucky Derby, third in that year’s Preakness Stakes and fourth in that year’s Belmont Stakes. Hard Spun was also second in the 2007 Breeders’ Cup Classic at Monmouth Park.
