On May 17, 1875 a horse named Aristides crossed the finish line before a crowd of 10,000 spectators to become the first winner of the Kentucky Derby.
The race, often called "the most exciting two minutes in sports," got started by Col. Meriwether Lewis Clark Jr, grandson of William Clark, of Lewis and Clark fame.
Clark was inspired by the Epson Derby in England and the Grand Prix de Paris Longchamp to create a spectacle horse racing event in the U.S.
'Run for the Roses'
The first network radio broadcast of the Kentucky Derby took place on May 16, 1925, with about 5 million to 6 million listeners tuning in to hear Flying Ebony win the Derby.
In that same year Bill Corum, a sports columnist for the New York Evening Journal and the New York Journal - American, coined a phrase to describe the Kentucky Derby: "the Run for the Roses."
And on May 7 this year, more than 150,000 spectators are expected to pack into Churchill Downs to watch the 148th Kentucky Derby.
It's an event steeped in tradition and known for--among other things--very stylish women's hats.
The Kentucky Derby is also the first leg of the Triple Crown, which also includes the Preakness Stakes and the Belmont Stakes.
'Across the Generations'
“The Kentucky Derby is the only horse race that is universally known, and it’s the oldest continuously run sporting event in America, going back to 1875,” said Syracuse professor Dennis Deninger, author of “Live Sports Media: The What, How, And Why of Sports Media.”
“That gives it a tradition and relevance across the generations," he said. "The same way that the Super Bowl is the most followed pro football game. Twice as many people watch it as do any playoff or league championship. So, there are as many non-fans watching as fans. Same thing for the Derby.”
Deninger said the tradition includes thousands of Kentucky Derby parties that people have around the country each year, including one that he hosts himself.
"I expect that this year’s Kentucky Derby will set an all-time record for wagering," he said. "The record of $165.6 million was set in 2019 before the pandemic. Now with sports wagering legal in some form or another in 30 states, there is greater access."
National commercials campaigns being run by sportsbooks have increased the awareness for would-be bettors, Deninger added.
'A Coming Out Party'
The Kentucky Derby, he said, "is very much a "coming out party” with three-year-old horses only.
"Which will become stars, names that will be remembered for decades?" Deninger said. "That’s part of the allure. And a horse can’t win the Triple Crown if it doesn’t win the Kentucky Derby first.”
Top contenders this year, according to Sports Illustrated's Frankie Taddeo, include Zandon at 3-1, Epicenter at 7-2, Messier at 8-1, and Mo Donegal at 10-1.
So what do the statistics tell us about a Kentucky Derby winner?
Time2play analyzed the most common traits of Kentucky Derby winners over the last 30 years and found that only two geldings have won the race compared with the 28 colt winners.
There have been no filly victories in the last 30 years, the company said, and only three in the entire history of the race, so if a filly comes in first on Saturday, it's going to be big news.
And the Numbers Say...
Half of the Kentucky Derby winners since 1992 have been the reddish-brown color known as bay, while chestnut takes second, and only three horses have been gray.
Twenty-one of the last 30 winning horses have been born in Kentucky, Time2play said, and no other state in the union comes close to producing as many winners.
Perhaps the most shocking trend in the data is that only 30% of the favorites win the race, Time2play said.
Only 9 of the 30 victors have been the favorite on the morning of the race in the last 30 years.
While this indicates that betting on favorites can be risky business, there may be some good news here.
"Justify was the last favorite to win in 2018," Time2play said. "This means that if 3 in 10 favorites win, and we’re into the 4th year without one - it could be time?"
Justify, a chestnut stallion and descendant of the Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew, went on to become the 13th-and most recent-winner of the Triple Crown in 2018 and retired undefeated--just like Seattle Slew.
'And They're Off!'
Now let's talk about positioning. Many horse racing fans truly believe the starting position can make or break a race.
As a rule, the higher the number, the harder the challenge, Time2Play said, while post position 16 has produced the most winners in the last 30 years. The average winning time is 2:04⅖ which is still behind the record of 1:59⅖ set by Secretariat in 1973.
And finally there are the jockeys.
Time2Play said that over the last 30 years of Kentucky Derby, the average jockey age has been 36.
The three most successful jockeys in the company's data are Calvin Borel, John R. Velazquez, and Kent Desormeaux - all of whom have won the derby 3 times each since 1992.
So, statistically speaking, the horse most likely to win the Kentucky Derby is a bay colored colt born in the Bluegrass State, with a starting position of 16--followed by 5--a jockey around 36 years old and can run a 1 ¼ mile track in less than 2:04.
Got all that? Good. Now hold on to your hats.
