Beijing's frozen winters are brutal. Frigid winds barrel down from the north, crystallising the city's lakes and rivers in thick sheets of ice, testing even the most hardened souls who dare venture outdoors. Yet something remarkable is thawing in the Chinese capital this winter—a political climate that has been frozen solid for the better part of a decade.
Within the past two months alone, world leaders from France, South Korea, Ireland, Canada and Finland have made the pilgrimage to meet President Xi Jinping. Now, Prime Minister Keir Starmer has arrived to join their ranks, becoming the first British premier to visit China in eight years, bearing gifts of trade ambitions and the hope of economic renewal.
The diplomatic thaw did not come easily. Chinese officials had explicitly warned their British counterparts that they would withhold any announcement of Starmer's visit until the UK resolved a contentious issue: approval for an expansive new Chinese embassy in London. Once Westminster capitulated to that demand last month, Beijing gave the green light. The calculation was transparent: trade concessions for political validation.
Yet for Britain, the stakes justify the discomfort. China is the UK's third-largest trading partner, with British firms exporting approximately £45 billion in goods and services annually to the Chinese market. For a government grappling with anaemic economic growth and bruised business confidence, the opportunity to unlock fresh commercial opportunities with the world's second-largest economy is not one to squander lightly.
The Ghost of the 'Golden Era' and Its Economic Promise
There exists a potent historical counterpoint to this moment. In October 2015, former Prime Minister David Cameron welcomed Xi Jinping to the UK for a state visit, the apex of what both governments hailed as a 'golden era' of bilateral relations. The image most emblematic of that period shows Cameron and Xi raising pints of bitter ale at the Plough Pub near Windsor Castle, beaming like old friends at a country weekend. Within a month of that visit, Britain had become the first major Western economy to join China's Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, signalling an unambiguous pivot towards commercial engagement with Beijing.
That golden era saw roughly £40 billion in trade deals announced during Xi's state visit alone. British financial services firms courted Chinese capital. Chinese investors poured billions into UK infrastructure projects, including the controversial Hinkley Point nuclear power station. The narrative was one of complementary strengths: Chinese capital meeting British expertise and London's status as a global financial centre.
Yet that golden age proved more glitter than substance. Between 2005 and 2010, when political emphasis on China was minimal, UK-China trade had surged by over 130 per cent. By contrast, the famous 'golden era' from 2010 onwards saw trade growth of merely 30 per cent—a paradox that revealed uncomfortable truths about the limits of high-level diplomatic enthusiasm.
By 2018, when Theresa May visited Beijing, the relationship had already begun its descent into what Starmer now candidly calls an 'ice age'. Hong Kong's autonomy sparked Western outrage. Huawei's exclusion from Britain's 5G infrastructure raised security red flags. A Chinese intelligence operative dragged a Hong Kong protester into the Manchester consulate, shocking British officials. Westminster grew increasingly alarmed by Beijing's espionage operations targeting MPs and parliamentarians. What had once felt like mutual economic opportunity began to feel more like navigating a minefield.
Economic Reality Meets Geopolitical Uncertainty
The individuals who still remember the 'golden era' are scattered across Beijing. Bowei Wang, a Chinese entrepreneur who studied in Scotland two decades ago, now operates a brewery in the historic Hutongs district near Tiananmen Square, serving Scottish-brewed ales alongside scenes from Braveheart and Elizabeth I playing on separate screens. His establishment represents a phantom of those earlier, more optimistic days of Anglo-Chinese cultural exchange—a period when universities and cultural institutions facilitated genuine people-to-people connection.
Those days feel distant now. Starmer arrives in Beijing keenly aware that a return to the previous 'golden era' is, as analysts at Chatham House suggest, 'wishful thinking'. China's economic power has expanded dramatically since 2015. Xi is a more confident, more assertive leader than he was when he sipped bitter ale with Cameron.
China manufactures roughly one-third of the world's goods, processes over 90 per cent of global rare earth minerals, and dominates the production of solar panels, wind turbines and electric vehicles—assets that represent immense leverage over Western economies desperate to reach net-zero targets.
'If the two sides could move ahead with a reasonable trading relationship, that is already an achievement,' cautions Dr Yu Jie, Senior Research Fellow at Chatham House. She notes that the dramatic shift in 'economic parity between Beijing and London' has fundamentally altered the negotiating dynamics. This is not a relationship between equals seeking mutual gain; it is increasingly one where Beijing holds the more advantageous hand.
Starmer's political challenge is formidable. He must convince Xi that closer trade ties serve mutual interests, secure genuine commercial agreements for British firms, and simultaneously reassure an increasingly sceptical security establishment and domestic critics that national security remains sacrosanct. The burner phones his delegation carried to Beijing—discarded upon arrival to avoid Chinese espionage—serve as a silent acknowledgment of how far trust has eroded.
The Prime Minister has already declared that Britain will not be forced to 'choose between' the US and China. Yet that pledge carries increasingly hollow undertones, as American President Donald Trump has demonstrated willingness to punish allies who strengthen ties with Beijing. When Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney visited China earlier this month and announced a 'new strategic partnership', Trump promptly threatened 100 per cent tariffs on Canadian goods.
For now, Starmer and the nearly 60 British executives accompanying him believe the journey is worth the risk. Whether that gamble yields genuine economic gain or merely photogenic moments in Beijing's winter cold remains to be seen.
