Keir Starmer appears to have enjoyed a “glitter-bomb bounce” from the Labour conference, a new Observer poll suggests, amid Tory concerns that only an economic upturn can reverse their party’s fortunes.
The Labour leader was covered in glitter by a protester at the start of his Labour conference speech in Liverpool last week. He responded by taking off his jacket, rolling up his sleeves and telling delegates he favoured “power, not protest”.
The incident has coincided with an increase both in Labour’s lead and Starmer’s personal popularity ratings, according to the latest poll by Opinium. At the end of what is likely to be the last conference season before the election, Labour’s lead increased to 16 points – up 2 points on last week. The party now has 44% of the vote, with the Tories on 28%.
Meanwhile, Starmer’s net approval rating – the difference between the share of voters who approve and disapprove of the job he is doing – has leapt by 9 points. The share of voters who approve is now 35%, compared with the 34% who disapprove. The proportion who see Starmer as a “prime minister in waiting” has risen from 30% last week to 38% now.
It comes at the end of a conference season that many Tories regard as a missed opportunity to begin closing Labour’s poll lead, which has remained in double digits since Rishi Sunak took over from Liz Truss a year ago.
While some senior MPs were pleased to hear Sunak make big decisions such as scrapping HS2 north of Birmingham and scaling down the government’s net zero policies, the chaotic scenes at the party’s conference have led most to believe that any Tory comeback is reliant on a significant economic upturn in 2024.
A former cabinet minister said: “I always think conferences are overrated as gamechangers, and it’s particularly true this year, given Israel. As ever, it’s the economy, stupid.”
A former minister said: “For Conservatives, it shows the scale of the problem, and for many it underlines the concern that whatever is said or done, the public have made up their minds.”
Some MPs are angry with Sunak and his performance. One even advocated removing him before the election, saying: “He is clearly not up to it.”
A veteran MP added: “There was a massive popular surge of support for Labour in 1997, and that’s not the same now – but there is limited time. Polls are more likely to be influenced by people suddenly finding they’re getting a bit better off and interest rates have come down – just seeing light at the end of the tunnel. So I still don’t think it’s over, but it’s not a very cheering scenario.”
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has ruled out making tax cuts in the forthcoming autumn statement, and senior figures in Starmer’s team feel increasingly confident they could oppose any promise the Tories make to cut taxes in the next parliament. “We could be pretty sceptical about that,” said one shadow cabinet figure. “Given the way [the Tories}have behaved, I’m not sure the public are going to believe they would go through with tax cuts if they win the election.”
Starmer’s decision to put housebuilding and home ownership at the heart of his conference speech appears to have had an effect. The proportion of voters aligning this initiative with Labour has jumped to 58% from 44% since last week.
James Crouch, head of policy and public affairs at Opinium, said: “Conference season has ended with a return to solid double-digit leads for Labour. But it has been an especially good week for the Labour leader himself.
“It appears the glitter-based protest during Starmer’s speech, and his reaction to it, has helped to boost his ratings, leading to a glitter-bomb bounce in his scores for approval and leadership attributes. The handling of this event enabled his speech to cut through when the news shifted to the Middle East.”
