Britain is a country that tends to elect Conservative governments, while trending towards Labour. There is a tension in that condition, making the political weather unpredictable. Or rather, the unfamiliar climate provokes doubts in the polling forecast: a hard anti-Tory rain, followed by a spell of Keir Starmer in Downing Street. The needles have flickered but not moved much for over a year. The consistency of Labour’s lead suggests a structural shift in the public mood in favour of regime change.
But confidence doesn’t come naturally to a party with multiple scars from acute disappointment and a scarcity of models for election-winning leadership. Tony Blair is the only person alive to have secured a Labour majority. That doesn’t make his method infallible, but its repudiation has proved to be a reliable route to defeat.
