The Bears have three games left to play — all against losing teams — and questions about the futures of their quarterback and head coach.
They’ve been here before — just three years ago.
The fact that they’re back in the same predicament tells you that chairman George McCaskey handled the last decision poorly. But what, if anything, did he learn from it? That’s what he’ll have to ask himself the last three games of the season, starting Sunday against the Cardinals at Soldier Field. One way or the other, the next month marks the likely end of the pairing between quarterback Justin Fields and coach Matt Eberflus.
New president/CEO Kevin Warren will have a say, too. He’d be wise to study the circumstances of the Bears’ decision — or lack thereof — in January 2021.
At this time three years ago, the Bears knew what they were going to do with their quarterback. They weren’t quite sure about their coach.
Mitch Trubisky, whose fifth-year option had been declined during the offseason, was benched for Nick Foles from Weeks 4-11 before returning to the starting lineup for the season’s home stretch.
Trubisky lost to the rival Packers and famously fumbled away a loss at home to the Lions before rattling off three-straight wins against the Texans, Vikings and Jaguars — Houston finished as the league’s third-worst team, Jacksonville the worst — to enter the final game 8-7.
The Bears were blown out at home by the Packers but backed into the playoffs anyway — the first year that the NFL gave seven spots to each conference. The Saints torched them 21-9 in the wild-card round.
The Bears had no interest in keeping Trubisky as their starter. The rest of the NFL agreed — when he hit free agency, he landed a one-year deal as the Bills’ backup.
His performance in the last month of the regular season, however, was enough for McCaskey to justify keeping general manager Ryan Pace and coach Matt Nagy around for 2021.
Even in the moment, McCaskey didn’t sound particularly excited.
“I get it, you deserve your Bears being winners,” McCaskey said at the time. “The decisions we’re announcing today may not be the easiest or most popular, but we believe they’re the best decisions for the Bears.”
They were neither. The resulting season was, simply, a mess.
The win-now mandate didn’t stop Pace from drafting Fields to take Trubisky’s place — to his credit — but it did prevent the Bears from treating him like the starter during the offseason program, training camp and start of the season. Only an injury to starter Andy Dalton forced Nagy’s hand.
When Fields finally started, Nagy’s game plan for Fields against the Browns — which produced nine sacks and negative passing yards — was so rudimentary that he handed off play-calling duties to coordinator Bill Lazor days later.
At one point during the season, Nagy asked McCaskey himself whether he thought Dalton or Fields should be the starter. That uncertainty made the chairman uncomfortable, and was cited by McCaskey as a reason for firing Nagy after a 6-11 record in 2021.
That starting Dalton was even a consideration speaks to the pressure Nagy was under to win and keep his job. The lesson: it’s best to have your quarterback, head coach and GM on the same timeline.
The Bears have a chance to do that this offseason if they part with Fields and fire Eberflus, who has the worst winning percentage for any head coach in Bears history. Or McCaskey and Warren could pair the No. 1 pick in the draft — the Bears have an 85% of landing there, per ESPN analytics — with a new offensive coordinator in place of Luke Getsy.
Fields leaving isn’t as foregone of a conclusion as Trubisky was in 2020, but it’s inching ever closer to it. Fields seems unlikely to return so long as the Bears draft position remains in the top two; his subpar showing against the Browns was the latest reminder that Getsy’s offense can’t compete with the league’s best defenses.
Both men will have a chance to beat up on one of the league’s worst Sunday — the Cardinals allow the second-most points in the NFL. Another home game a week later against a Falcons team that has lost five of seven — and most recently to the one-win Panthers — could propel the Bears into their season finale against the Packers on a two-game win streak.
When Trubisky flashed against the lowly Texans and Jaguars, the Bears knew not to read too much into his success. The playoff spot he helped earn gave Bears brass enough cover to keep Nagy and Pace, though.
So how much credit will Fields get if he does well the rest of the way against losing teams? What about Eberflus, whose team has stabilized and defense has shone the last two months? What role will the Bears’ showing against the Packers — always a McCaskey measuring stick — play in the chairman’s thinking?
Where does the line blur between a strong finish and a false positive?
The Bears must know something has to change — be it Fields, Getsy, Eberflus or all of the above. The last time he was in this position, McCaskey opted for half-measures. He kept the coach and ditched the quarterback.
He has three weeks to decide whether he wants to do the same again.
