In its 25th year of founding, the Janata Dal (Secular) will be fighting a crucial election this time after a severe drubbing in the assembly elections in May. In a reversal of alliance, the regional outfit that aligned with the Congress in 2019 is going to Parliamentary polls with the BJP at a time when the party’s survival is at stake.
While the JD(S) believes that aligning with the saffron party has staved off attempts by the Congress to “break” the party by poaching its legislators, the performance in the Parliamentary polls holds the key for a stable alliance with the BJP in future, helping it to retain its identity within the alliance. This is the regional party’s first major election after dramatically realigning its ideological stance.
From 27 to possibly three
Incidentally, since its debut in Parliamentary polls in 1999, when it drew a blank after contesting in 27 seats and garnered 10.9% vote share, the JD(S) will be contesting, likely, in just three seats in the 2024 elections, lowest so far. In 2019, the party won only one seat of the seven it contested. Party supremo and former Prime Minister H.D. Deve Gowda in Tumakuru and Nikhil Kumaraswamy in Mandya were defeated, while it managed a vote share of 9.7%.
Though the alliance was stitched nearly six months ago, a planned convention to formally announce the regional party’s entry into NDA is yet to take place. Also, till now there has been no joint meeting of the JD(S) and local BJP leaders to discuss coordination in elections. Sources insist that these will get traction now that the election schedule has been announced.
Transfer of votes
The party will not only be fighting to win possibly Hassan, Mandya, and Kolar constituencies (yet to be officially announced), where it will be contesting as part of the seat-sharing arrangement with the BJP, it will be under pressure to transfer its vote in at least six constituencies in Old Mysore region, and at least three constituencies in Kalyana Karnataka, to ensure the victory of BJP candidates. Party sources acknowledge that the challenge is to retain the party base and workers besides retaining the identity in Old Mysore region after ensuring vote transfer. It also remains to be seen how the party’s workers and organisation work for the alliance in Kalyana Karnataka districts where the party has a good base in pockets, but is not contesting. Sources believe that about 20% of the workers opposed to the alliance may remain neutral or switch sides.
Since 1999, the party’s performance has been limited. It was only in 2009 that the party garnered 13.6% vote share, winning three seats. In 2014, it won two seats and got a vote share of 11.1%.
Health concerns
Amidst hectic meetings and grassroots level preparations, the health of former Chief Minister and the party’s star campaigner H.D. Kumaraswamy remains a concern, especially after he undergoes a heart valve procedure next week. His participation in campaigns in the sweltering heat and dust hangs in balance even as Mr. Gowda’s age may not permit him to actively campaign.
