Having seen Emre Can and Gini Wijnaldum both leave Liverpool at the end of their contracts in recent years, Reds fans are understandably anxious about Mohamed Salah’s Anfield future.
The Egyptian is out of contract in the summer of 2023 and despite insisting he’d prefer to stay with Liverpool and Jurgen Klopp wanting to keep him, there has been no sign of any breakthrough in negotiations.
Similar was said regarding Can and Wijnaldum of course, with speculation regarding their own futures persistent as questions side-stepped were side-stepped publicly before their reluctant exits were confirmed.
Reds have seen it before and fear it again, but surely Liverpool wouldn’t dare allowing history to repeat itself with Salah, with the forward currently the best player on the planet?
Free to talk to overseas clubs regarding a pre-contract agreement next January, the Reds are nearing last-chance saloon to keep the forward before interested sides can start whispering sweet nothings in his ear.
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It used to be dangerous ground if ever a player got even near to the final 12 months of his deal, with clubs well-aware they were now working against the clock to pen new terms or sell for a respectable fee.
Yet the financial ramifications of the coronavirus pandemic have ensured this is now a regular occurrence, seemingly changing the landscape and producing a resurgence in the big-name Bosman market in the process.
The likes of Wijnaldum, Lionel Messi, Sergio Ramos, David Alaba, Sergio Aguero and Gianluigi Donnarumma all moved on free transfers last summer, with Kylian Mbappe and Paul Pogba two of the most high-profile of names set to follow in their footsteps this year as such a trend looks set to continue.
After all, it’s not just Salah facing an uncertain future against the clock at Anfield, with Sadio Mane, Roberto Firmino, Naby Keita and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain all closing in on the final 12 months of their contracts too.
And it’s not just at Liverpool where the summer of 2023 is getting closer and closer and causing countless sweats upon brows.
Looking just at attacking players, in Manchester, Raheem Sterling, Gabriel Jesus and Riyad Mahrez all have limited time left on their Man City contracts, with Marcus Rashford and Cristiano Ronaldo also sitting on expiring deals at Manchester United.
At Bayern Munich, Robert Lewandowski, Serge Gnabry and Thomas Muller will currently be free agents in little over a year.
Real Madrid face the prospect of losing Marco Asensio and Karim Benzema. For Barcelona, it's Memphis Depay.
And, having already endured such drama at Camp Nou last summer, Messi's Paris Saint-Germain contract is set to expire in 2023.
Expanding the search beyond attackers, Milan Skriniar, Jan Oblak, N'Golo Kante, Kalidou Koulibaly, Gavi, Ilkay Gundogan, Thomas Lemar, Raphael Guerreiro, Ryan Gravenberch, Houssem Aouar, Toni Kroos and David De Gea are just some of the names whose contracts at elite European clubs are also due to run out in little over a year’s time.
Meanwhile, the likes of Youri Tielemans, Caglar Soyuncu, Renato Sanches, Yves Bissouma, Wilfried Zaha, Goncalo Guedes, Marcus Thuram, Sasa Kalajdzic and Jonathan Bamba ensure it’s not just the creme de la creme facing such a prospect.
So why this change in the market, with players and clubs no longer concluding such contract negotiations month before the 12-month danger zone is even in sight?
It comes down to the financial impact on clubs. Players are finding out that not only can clubs perhaps not offer them what was previously the going-rate in terms of wages, they also can’t afford to sign these big-money stars in the middle of their contracts when their price would be at its highest either.
So they keep their options open and enter this game of chicken, seeing out their contracts and seeing who will blink first. Either their club offers them the terms they want or risks a high-profile asset leaving for no transfer fee. Yet with so many players taking the same approach, such tactics are no longer as big a concern for a club as they once used to be.
Say Messi leaves PSG at the end of his contract in 2023. His departure opens up a vast space on the wage-bill for the Ligue 1 giants to replace him with an equally high-profile free agent.
A Salah, Rashford or the wantaway Lewandowski perhaps? With Bayern then, hypothetically, turning to Firmino or Mane? And then naturally Liverpool would be foolish not to consider a switch for Gnabry.
With no transfer fee to pay, the clubs are able to offer these would-be free agents higher wages to lure them. And thus, a transfer merry-go-round is kick-started in the process.
As long as so many star names run down their contracts, the remaining elite will continue to sit it out and weigh up their options.
When one star signs a new contract, the new going-rate in contract negotiations is set and one potential vacancy closes, limiting the options of other out of contract players in the process.
But when you have a Messi, Lewandowski or even a Benzema potentially moving on on Bosman transfers, they need to be replaced and a free agent marquee signing is currently top of the range.
Clearly there are plenty to choose from but a look across the would-be market in 2023 and Salah would easily be the most desirable, high-profile player available.
If Liverpool and FSG are serious about keeping him at Anfield, they need to find a breakthrough in contract negotiations before getting caught up in this wider game beyond their control.
