Republican Kari Lake is narrowing the gap with Democratic Congressman Ruben Gallego in Arizona's U.S. Senate race, according to the latest poll. Lake, endorsed by former President Donald Trump, is running against Gallego in the upcoming election on November 5.
A poll sponsored by the Republican-linked Trafalgar Group, conducted between October 10 and 13 among 1,090 likely voters, shows Gallego leading Lake by 4 points, getting 48% of the support to Lake's 44%. A previous poll by The New York Times/Siena College, completed on October 10, had Gallego ahead by 9 points.
The news comes after Lake and Gallego faced off in a debate for the Senate seat currently held by Kyrsten Sinema, who is not seeking re-election. The debate featured sharp exchanges, highlighting their differing positions and personal attacks, as both seek to sway voters ahead of Election Day.
Lake launched a barrage of accusations against Gallego, claiming he underwent "an extreme makeover" by shifting from a progressive stance in the House to a more moderate position aimed at attracting a broader voter base, including Republicans. She particularly criticized him on immigration, alleging he was too lenient on border security. "Ruben Gallego has supported—every step of the way—Kamala Harris, the border czar, and Joe Biden's open border," Lake said during a passage of the debate.
Gallego defended his record, highlighting his support for increasing border agents in Arizona. He countered Lake's criticisms by accusing her of prioritizing political maneuvering over bipartisan border solutions. "You've been to Mar-a-Lago more than you have been to the border," he retorted.
The scenario at the national level is more favorable for Republicans: FiveThirtyEight's average shows Vice President Kamala Harris trailing Donald Trump by 2 points in Arizona, with Vice President Kamala Harris at 46.8% to Donald Trump's 48.4%.
Meanwhile, Arizona's state legislative races are also drawing attention. All 90 seats in the legislature are up for election, with Republicans holding slim majorities in both the House (31-29) and Senate (16-14). Democrats hope to flip at least one chamber, with a key battleground being Legislative District 4, which includes parts of Phoenix, Paradise Valley, and Scottsdale. This district has swung between both parties in recent elections, reflecting a broader trend of divided voter loyalty.
As in-person voting begins, Trump has urged Arizonans to back Lake in the Senate race. Lake has been vocal in her support of Trump's false claims about the 2020 election and faced internal challenges within her party during her unsuccessful gubernatorial run. Currently, she trails Gallego in both polls and fundraising efforts.
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