The Kansas City Royals have had quite an active offseason, making several moves to strengthen their roster. They added veteran pitchers Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha, as well as relief pitchers Chris Stratton and Will Smith. In addition, they signed free agent outfielder Hunter Renfroe and made trades for pitchers Kyle Wright and Nick Anderson. However, their biggest move by far was securing their franchise cornerstone, shortstop Bobby Witt Jr., to a record-breaking 11-year, $288.8 million contract.
This type of long-term deal has become increasingly popular in Major League Baseball, with the recent signing of center fielder Julio Rodriguez by the Seattle Mariners for 12 years and $209.3 million being a comparable example. Small to mid-market teams, like the Royals, are turning to this strategy as the price tag for established superstars in free agency continues to rise. Their goal is to draft and develop their own stars and sign them to long-term contracts early in their careers.
In the case of the Royals, they are taking a calculated risk with Witt's contract, but stand to gain substantial rewards. The effectiveness of this deal will be determined by several factors. First, how good is Witt now, and how good will he be in the future? Second, what are some unique features of this contract that need to be considered?
Many believe that Witt is on an upward trajectory, well on his way to becoming a great player. However, it can be argued that he is already great. He is an above-average defensive shortstop with exceptional speed and an impressive offensive game that has even more upside. Despite performing better in his home park, Witt's overall numbers should have been even better based on his exit speed and launch angle profile. His 'Tru' Production+ of 127 is evidence of his exceptional skills at the plate, surpassing his 115 wRC+.
One remarkable aspect of Witt's game is his ability to make contact. With a strikeout rate of 17.4% last season, significantly lower than the league average, he possesses excellent bat-to-ball skills. While his walk rate at 5.8% was relatively low, it is expected to increase as he learns to accept the 'respect' walks that pitchers are likely to offer him in the future.
To put Witt's performance into perspective, a comparison was made with other young shortstops in the MLB who achieved similar or better production. Names like Fernando Tatis Jr., Corey Seager, Carlos Correa, Hanley Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Gleyber Torres, and Wander Franco were brought up. All of them continued to be potent hitters, with Franco being an exceptional talent. While Tatis, Ramirez, and Torres eventually moved away from the shortstop position, Witt's defensive prowess puts him on par with Lindor.
Looking closely at the details of Witt's contract, he has the option to opt-out after the 2031 season, and subsequently in 2032, 2033, and 2034. In essence, the Royals are guaranteed to pay him $148.8 million over the next seven years, with the possibility of him exercising the option to earn $35 million annually in those later years or becoming a free agent.
From the perspective of Royals fans, this deal is incredibly favorable. They will have Witt during his prime years, from age 24 to 30, which is when players typically reach their peak performance. While Witt is being handsomely compensated, there is still potential for the Royals to receive value beyond the contract, especially if they build a competitive team around him. The possibility of the contract becoming burdensome between 2031 and 2034 exists, but it is not a risk that is prominent at this point.
In conclusion, this contract is a win-win situation. Witt will be well-compensated throughout his career, without leaving significant money on the table. The Royals, on the other hand, have secured their franchise player for the long term, with the earliest possibility of him opting out after his age-30 season. For small to mid-market teams, it is crucial to develop their own superstars and make the financial commitment to retain them during their best years. The Royals have done just that with Bobby Witt Jr.
