CHICAGO — Analytics guru Ken Pomeroy provided Providence College’s men’s basketball team a rallying cry recently when his metrics deemed coach Ed Cooley’s Friars the “luckiest” of the NCAA’s 358 Division I programs.
“The luck narrative, that’s called divine providence,” 11th-year Friars coach Cooley said with a smile last week in Buffalo, New York using humor to answer those who considered his team a likely early out in the 2022 NCAA Tournament.
Buffalo was the site of Providence’s 66-57 first-round Midwest Regional victory over South Dakota State and 79-51 second-round rout of Richmond. Those two victories advanced the No. 4 seed Friars (27-5) into the Sweet 16, where they’ll meet No. 1 seed Kansas (30-6) in a regional semifinal contest at 6:29 p.m. Friday in the United Center.
Providence enters embracing a no-respect angle with luck being offered as one of the reasons for the Friars’ 11-2 record in games decided by five points or less, 3-0 record in overtime games and 16-2 mark in games decided by single digits.
KU coach Bill Self — his Jayhawks are 6-2 in games decided by five points or less and 12-3 in games decided by single digits — isn’t buying into this “luck” narrative.
“It amazes me. Ed has done an unbelievable job, won 25 games and wins the Big East and they have a chip (on their shoulder) every time they play, which is part of being a good salesman,” Self said Thursday at the United Center.
“Teams need to buy into a certain thought or theory or belief. And I’m sure that’s been the thing that’s probably driven them as much as anybody. They probably think, ‘Well we win the league but they still talk about Villanova.’ Or, ‘We’re a 4 seed and Villanova is a 2 seed, we win the league (and yet they were been picked by some to lose each of their first two tourney games).’
“You can use those things as motivation all the time. I’m sure Ed is very good at that. I know we’ve done similar things as well,” Self added.
Self said he has much respect for the Friars.
“They are not a team, from our perspective or I think anyone else’s perspective that gets no respect. They have gotten respect and they’ve earned it all. I had one guy tell me that there’s some deal out there, a lucky team or something,” he said of Pomeroy’s luck metric.
“Whatever, the media has pegged them as that because they won so many close games. And luck doesn’t win close games; toughness and skill and execution does. And so they’ve got a lot to be proud of. I know they’re going into this game believing that if they play well, they can handle us. And we know that we’re going to have to play well to do that to them.”
Cooley said Thursday at his team’s media availability at the United Center that his players are well aware the Friars are not a popular pick to reach the Final Four.
The winner of Friday’s KU-Providence game will meet the winner of Friday’s Iowa State-Miami contest Sunday in the Elite Eight.
“Kids have social media and they read everything,” Cooley said. “I’m sitting here, I’ve been doubted my whole life. So doubt is just something that I live with and embrace. Doubt is for people who don’t know. Doubt is for individuals who think they know. Doubt is for motivation for the team that is being doubted. Doubt got us here. Doubt got me here. Doubt will continue to send our school in a way that nobody ever anticipated.
“I appreciate doubt. I appreciate people who don’t believe. I believe every day I wake up there’s an opportunity to be special. Every day I wake up I try and inspire the group that nobody is better than you for 40 minutes.
“And if you deliver that message to your men the right way and you inspire them and lead them in the right way, unbelievable things could happen. And there’s got to be some luck along the way. But in life, I’ve been doubted my whole life. And everybody who doubted is now watching doubt,” Cooley added.
Self and Cooley say they actually have teams that mirror each other.
Six of Providence’s top seven players are seniors. KU, meanwhile, starts seniors in Ochai Agbaji and David McCormack, a junior in Christian Braun and a pair of third-year sophs in Jalen Wilson and Dajuan Harris. Seniors Remy Martin, Mitch Lightfoot and Jalen Coleman-Lands come off the bench as well as third-year soph Joseph Yesufu. Freshmen Zach Clemence and KJ Adams have been used off the bench as well.
Providence beat Big 12 member Texas Tech 72-68 this season in Rhode Island. KU split with the Red Raiders, who are also in the Sweet 16.
“We don’t run the same stuff, but personnel reminds us both of each other,” Self said of KU and Providence. “I don’t think there’s an advantage or disadvantage.”
KU’s leading scorer is senior Agbaji at 19.3 points a game; the Friars are led by senior center Nate Watson and senior guard Al Durham who average 13.5 and 13.3 points.
“We’re going to be playing somebody that is comparable to what we have seen the majority of the time this year,” Self said.
Agbaji acknowledged, “We mirror each other with our sets and obviously three-point shooting ability (KU has made 260 of 723 threes for 36.0%; Providence 239 of 683 for 35.0%). “I think when those things are equal, we kind of have to find what we’re best at and really stick to it as far as making them play bad or just defensively locking in on stuff they do, trying to throw them off, because they’re going to try to do the same thing for us. So really focusing on the defensive end. I think that’s where the game is going to be won at, where we’re going to be successful.”
Cooley, who said he feels “great” about his team, noted that “it’s “going to be hard to score on them. It’s going to be hard for them to score on us. It’s not going to be 116-111, I hope. When you’re scouting you’re looking at ways in which you can take advantage and then you’re looking at their strength and try to limit their strengths and play to an identity of which, you know, I like our identity. Actually, I don’t like our identity, I love our identity, and hopefully that plays out.”
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