What do the British Conservatives, the New Zealand Labour party, the LDP of Japan and the ANC of South Africa have in common? Defeat. All four led governments that have been pummelled at the polls recently as part of the greatest wave of anti-incumbent voting ever seen. Governments of left and right, radicals and moderates, liberals and nationalists: all are falling.
This week the US Democratic party joined the electoral casualty list, bested by the man they ousted four years ago, the past and now future president, Donald Trump. Critics and cheerleaders alike see Trump as an extraordinary figure with a unique appeal. But his triumph is the rule, not the exception. Defeated vice-president Kamala Harris ran ahead of the global trend, even more so in the crucial swing states. But she was swept away nonetheless.
While president-elect Trump has a distinct appeal, making major inroads among traditional Democratic constituencies and surging in many deep-blue big cities, the attraction is to the man, not the agenda. Trump loyalists underperformed further down the ticket, with several key swing states backing Democrats in state contests even as they backed Trump for the White House. Wholehearted rejection of the status quo in Washington does not entail wholesale endorsement of the only alternative agenda on offer.
Particularly not when voters across the world are backing any alternative to the people in charge. What is driving this universal urge to oust governments? One candidate can be found on coffee shop menus and mortgage statements worldwide. Prices are up, a lot, everywhere. The post-Covid reopening drove a surge in consumer demand which in turn has spiked prices higher, an inflationary trend accelerated by disruption to energy supplies after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine the next spring.
It’s a plausible explanation. Polls everywhere show voters unhappy about rising prices, and incumbents’ electoral fortunes began to crater soon after inflation took off. Politicians worldwide may be relearning a lesson grimly familiar to their predecessors from the 1970s: voters really, really don’t like inflation.
The problem of inflation is a problem of accountability. Voters accepted Covid lockdowns because the logic of “stay at home, save lives” was clear. They suffered through restrictions on their lives and liberties, and for the most part did not punish the governments that imposed these. Inflation is more insidious. It is hard to understand how war abroad leads to more expensive bills for everything at home. The story of price rises cascading through a global supply chain is too complex, with too many moving parts. Without a clear sense of what has gone wrong or who is to blame, frustrated voters default to blaming those in charge. Inflation may be global, but electoral punishment is still national.
“Oppositions don’t win elections, governments lose them,” the old saw goes. But this assumes either contender can shape the outcome. Elections where defeat is all but certain are not failures for the incumbent or triumphs for the opposition. They are punishment beatings. And guaranteed pain is not a good incentive structure. Why govern well if doing so cannot save you? Why oppose credibly if credible opposition doesn’t matter? Trump learned nothing and changed nothing after losing in 2020 – 54% of Americans said in exit polls he was too extreme for the White House. Anti-incumbent voters put him back there anyway.
Though inflation is once again tamed, there is no sign yet that the populist tide it has unleashed is turning. The governments of Germany and Canada are among the next to face the voters, and polls in both countries suggest both will be routed. Radicals and populists of all stripes will no doubt be cheered that the global anti-incumbent wave continues to sweep through the corridors of power, believing this to be a cleansing purge of a corrupt old order.
They should be careful what they wish for. Constant defeat, like constant victory, is not a healthy sign for democracy. Elections need to provide a signal from governed to governors about what voters want and a reward for governments that deliver it. When ballots degenerate into indiscriminate howls of rage against the machine, they provide no such signal. Governments have no means of knowing what voters want and little motive to deliver it if they will be thrown out regardless.
The first defeat of an incumbent is a turning point for fledgling democracies. It shows that opposition forces are strong enough, and elections fair enough, for bad governments to be peacefully removed. Restoring a healthy democratic balance after a year of electoral punishment beatings now requires a shift in the opposite direction. It isn’t enough for voters to rebuke governments that fail. They also need, on occasion, to reward governments that succeed.
Robert Ford is professor of political science at Manchester University and co-author of The British General Election of 2019
