WASHINGTON _ Kamala Harris' sudden exit from the 2020 presidential race will set off a furious campaign for her donors from California, the delegate and financial capital of the Democratic primary.
Party strategists and fundraisers see the money and loyalty splitting among the top candidates _ a dynamic driven by diverging preferences of ideology, viability and a desire to elect the first female president.
Campaign finance data analyzed by McClatchy found that Harris shared the most big-money donors with Elizabeth Warren. The pair had more than 2,100 itemized contributors in common through the end of September, the most recent public numbers available. Still, more than 1,700 donors gave to both the California senator and Pete Buttigieg. And Harris has more than 1,000 of the same contributors as Joe Biden.
Mark Buell, an early bundler for Harris from San Francisco, had also decided to fundraise for Buttigieg after seeing him on Bill Maher's HBO show earlier this year. As the news of Harris' departure was still sinking in on Tuesday, he said he was likely to end up backing Buttigieg, but noted that California's deep, diverse donor base is so vast, it will divide its riches.
"A percentage will go to Warren. But because (Harris') support comes from white educated assume some would go to Biden," said Buell.
Eleni Kounalakis, California's well-connected lieutenant governor, had been scheduled to hold a fundraiser for Harris next week. By Tuesday afternoon, she'd already received calls from rival campaigns beginning to court her support.
"I'm not surprised that my friends would be calling but it's going to take me a little time to (reassess) the field," Kounalakis said. "This is a real calibration because there's no one else in the race that was quite like Kamala Harris."
Harris collected nearly half of her campaign cash from California, according to an analysis of itemized receipts. Her fundraising remained remarkably consistent through the first nine months of the year _ raising nearly $12 million a quarter, even after suffering through self-inflicted errors on policy positions that left many voters with doubts about her core beliefs.
But the costs of staffing a national organization as the campaign endured a tsunami of negative media coverage about its strategy for a comeback became too much for the once promising candidate to bare. This fall, she didn't have enough money to air television ads in Iowa, as rivals such as Bernie Sanders and Buttigieg were pouring millions into such spots. Ironically, just hours before her withdrawal, a pro-Harris super PAC had popped up to reserve a half-million dollar TV buy.
It was too late.
"I'm not a billionaire. I can't fund my own campaign," Harris wrote in an email to supporters. "And as the campaign has gone on, it's become harder and harder to raise the money we need to compete. In good faith, I can't tell you, my supporters and volunteers, that I have a path forward if I don't believe I do."
Steve Maviglio, a Sacramento, Calif.-based Democratic strategist who served as press secretary to former California Gov. Gray Davis, said that he also saw Harris' donors proceeding in different directions. The moderate lane would go to Biden, he said, while the "more fierce progressive feminists in the state" would gravitate to Warren. "I don't think there will be one natural place," he said.
Warren and Biden look to be the biggest initial beneficiaries of raw political support in California, according to a recent poll by the Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies. Thirty-five percent of Harris supporters said they'd choose Biden, whereas 24% favored Warren. That matched what a national Morning Consult survey found. Of the 5% of voters who identified Harris as their first choice, 22% chose Biden next, compared to 21% who selected Warren.
But with the Iowa caucuses just two months away, more donors may be weighing electoral viability before writing a check, especially after investing in such a high-profile candidate who flamed out.
"They're going to be bruised by the loss, but they don't want to lose twice," said Rufus Gifford, who oversaw fundraising for President Barack Obama's reelection. "They're not going to want to support another candidate who's going to drop out."
There will also be a plethora of elected officials to court, from Gov. Gavin Newsom to the half-dozen California congressional endorsements Harris had earned.
Gifford, the Obama fundraiser who himself supported Harris among several other candidates, said he expects top Harris supporters will start hearing from other campaigns soon.
"I would imagine with any of the sophisticated campaigns it will probably happen in the next few days," Gifford said.
For the most committed diehard donors, it'll take some time.
"I'm in mourning," cautioned Harris supporter Jason Smith, a Fort Worth, Texas, attorney who wrote Harris a $2,800 check back in March. "I'll start thinking about who I'm going to support next week."
