Bosnia-Herzegovina faces the United States in the knockout Round of 32 and the USA are massive 84% favorites to advance on Kalshi.
The USMNT even has a 48% chance to cover a -1.5 goal spread in regulation time. This comes as Bosnia had a tough run through the group stage.
USA vs Bosnia-Herzegovina
- Moneyline: USA (84%) vs Bosnia-Herzegovina (17%)
- Spread: USA -1.5 (48%)
- Total: 2.5
Just a $1.76 profit is made off the USA’s price on Kalshi’s World Cup market at a $10 trade. Bosnia-Herzegovina profit $45.58 on the same $10.
A shaky start
Bosnia-Herzegovina struggled in the group stage, going 1-1-1. It started with a 1-1 draw against Canada, followed by a 4-1 loss to Switzerland, and finished off with a 3-1 win over Qatar. In total, Bosnia-Herzegovina scored five goals while conceding six.
Showing dominance
The United States dominated with a strong first two matches against Paraguay (4-1) and Australia (2-0) before dropping to Turkiye (3-2) in its final match. In its defense, Mauricio Pochettino rotated heavily after the team had already clinched top spot.
This is an offensive-heavy unit generating 44 shots over three matches, with 16 of them being on goal.
If the possession margin stands, the USMNT could be in line for another strong performance with its 58% possession rate to Bosnia-Herzegovina’s 46%.
The road ahead
If the United States could get past Bosnia-Herzegovina, the winner between Belgium and Senegal awaits in the Round of 16. In the quarterfinals, a potential match against Portugal, Croatia, Spain, or Austria is on deck. In the semifinals, Germany, Paraguay, France, Sweden, Canada, the Netherlands, or Morocco would be up.
Kalshi expects an early exit with the stage of elimination market favoring them being eliminated in the Round of 16 and quarterfinals.
USMNT World Cup Stage of Elimination
- Round of 16 35%
- Quarterfinals 33%
- Round of 32 17%
- Semifinals 13%
- Runner-Up 3%
- Outright Winner 3%
Those prices shifted out of the USA’s favor in less than a week, with the Round of 16 surging from 26% to 35%. A lot of that has to do with the tougher draw it now faces.
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