Patience is key for the Kansas City Chiefs, and Kalshi agrees, as it offers a market on whether Patrick Mahomes will play in Kansas City’s first preseason game on August 15.
Kalshi’s NFL market is heavy on both sides, with a 98% chance that he does play and 99% chance he does not. The market resolves on whether he takes a single snap or not during the Chiefs' preseason opener against the Los Angeles Rams. The profit is minimal here on a $10 trade, only profiting $0.18 if he plays and $0.09 if he doesn't.
Will Patrick Mahomes play in the Chiefs' first preseason game? - Kalshi
- Yes 98%
- No 99%
Andy Reid proceeds with caution
Chiefs coach Andy Reid made clear that Mahomes is unlikely to play in the preseason opener. Mahomes underwent surgery in December to repair the torn ACL and LCL he suffered in his left knee in Week 15 last season.
"I mean, there's a pretty good chance where I don't play him," Reid said. “(The) percentages are leading that way. I don't know if I'll play him in the second or third game. I don't know that. The percentages probably lean against not doing that."
Reid also stated that the new QBs behind Mahomes “need some work.” Kansas City signed Justin Fields as the primary backup for Mahomes this season and drafted former LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier in the seventh round.
The case he plays
Mahomes ranks among the NFL’s most competitive players. He has never missed a full preseason since 2017 and has played every opener, even if only for one pass.
This time, Mahomes is also cautious, noting that coaches and doctors will decide and that preparing for Week 1 matters more.
“I'm a competitor, so [on] game day, I'm going to want to be out there," Mahomes said. “But I understand the process of getting myself ready to play in the regular season is more important. We'll see. The coaches and doctors will make that decision for me, but I'll prepare myself like I'm going to play."
The Kansas City Chiefs kick off the preseason at 4 p.m., Saturday, August 15th, against the LA Rams on NFL Network.
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