In Washington, there is plenty of information that can move a market. A government official may know what a president is preparing to announce, whether a particular policy is about to change, or which officials will attend a major event. As prediction markets increasingly list contracts tied to political decisions and government activity, that information can become directly tradable.
The issue is already emerging on Kalshi, which has become one of the industry’s largest platforms. The company has spent years building surveillance systems designed to identify suspicious trading, and Kalshi tells Fortune it has begun aggressively referring suspected misconduct to federal authorities.
