It has been a very active offseason in college basketball, with several notable transfers and players opting to return to school. One team that stood out, though, is the Florida Gators, who return most of their roster from last season.
The college basketball market on Kalshi is opening a new prediction on which team will be ranked No. 1 in the country come Week 1 of the college basketball season, and the Gators are an overwhelming 74% favorite.
Florida is such a heavy favorite that Duke is the only other team with an implied probability of over 10%, and all other notable schools are listed below the 5% mark.
College Basketball #1 Team on Week 1 AP Poll - Kalshi
- Florida 74%
- Duke 18%
- Illinois 4%
- Michigan 3%
Note that this market specifically focuses on the AP top-25, not any other poll. Florida is an overwhelming favorite.
Rewind to May 23rd, and Florida’s chance to land at No. 1 were just 52% while Duke had a 32% chance. Nearly every day since then, Florida has been trending up while Duke has seen their chances shrink.
Gators double down as contenders
Florida made some noise so far this offseason, retaining 10 players from their 2025-26 roster, including Alex Condon, Rueben Chinyelu and Thomas Haugh. Those three were all projected first-round picks in the 2026 NBA Draft and also key parts of the Gators' 2025 National Championship run.
Florida also made a splash in the transfer portal, bringing in Denzel Aberdeen from Kentucky, who originally started his career with Florida and won the championship with them as well before transferring out. Aberdeen averaged 13.5 points, 3.4 assists and 2.5 rebounds in one season at Kentucky, and his return is pending an NCAA eligibility waiver.
Three-star, 7-foot center Jones Lay was a high school commit. They’ve also gained commitments from Slovenian forward Domen Petrović, out of the Premier A Slovenian Basketball League, and center Artūras Butajevas from Lithuania.
The Gators are coming off a 27-8 season, averaging 87.1 points on a +15.6 differential. They were eliminated in the second round of March Madness, where they lost to Iowa 73-72.
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