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Fortune
Fortune
Eva Roytburg

Kalshi and Polymarket are racing to ban insider trading. The economist who built the theory behind prediction markets says it's the whole point

Robin Hanson Polymarket Kalshi Omar Marques LightRocket SEC SOPA Images
POLAND - 2026/03/16: In this photo illustration, the Polymarket logo is displayed on a smartphone with stock market percentages in the background. (Photo Illustration by Omar Marques/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images) (Credit: Omar Marques/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)

The walls have started closing in on prediction markets.

On Thursday, the Department of Justice announced it was charging a U.S. Army soldier who helped plan the operation to capture Nicolas Maduro with five felonies, alleging he used classified intelligence to bet $33,000 on Polymarket that the raid would happen, then cashed out roughly $400,000 when it did. 

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