The collapse of Ukraine’s Kakhovka dam is not likely to significantly hinder the first stages of the counteroffensive against Russian troops, now gathering force across the country’s south and east.
A river crossing in Kherson province, downstream from the dam, would have been technically challenging and extremely risky even before the area became a vast flood plain. Ukrainian strikes are expected in places where the frontline lies mostly on firm ground.
“The Kakhovka dam is at least 100 miles from where much of the activity might take place, at its closest point,” Michael Kofman, director of the Russia studies programme at the CNA thinktank said on Twitter.
“A Ukrainian cross-river operation in southern Kherson, below the dam, was always a risky and therefore low-probability prospect.”
However, the humanitarian crisis unleashed by flooding may “impact on Ukrainian momentum”, by absorbing time and resources of senior leadership, said ProfTracey German, a specialist in Russian foreign and security policy at King’s College London.
“It could well disrupt plans, not least because it draws the attention of the country’s leadership to dealing with the consequences of the disaster – Zelensky travelling to Kherson today as an example – rather than focusing solely on the counteroffensive,” she said.
“Although I am sure Kyiv had considered the possibility of the dam being destroyed, [as] Russia had threatened it in the autumn of 2022, the reality is likely to be a distraction.”
Ukrainian officials claimed that Russia destroyed the dam “out of fear that Ukrainian forces would land on the east (left) bank Kherson oblast,” the Institute for the Study of War said in a report.
The flood waters did sweep away Ukrainian outposts that had been set up on the eastern bank of the Dnipro, after weeks of probing Russian defences. But they were small, and in the medium term, there may be some military advantages for Ukraine from the catastrophe.
The flood also destroyed sections of an initial line of defence fortifications that Russian troops had been reinforcing for months, forcing some to retreat from some posts, and probably abandon equipment, the ISW said.
Until the dam is rebuilt – which will not be until after the war – this area will revert to swampy wetlands surrounded by a flood plain. Ukraine’s partisans, and its more nimble military, are likely to have an advantage in that kind of terrain.
And although the city of Kherson is still being shelled, including in places where evacuations were being organised on Thursday, the flood waters have forced the retreat of some artillery units that had been attacking the city.
That has put at least some areas under Ukrainian control out of range, and made others harder to target.
Longer term though, the dam’s destruction will be devastating for Ukraine. It provided water to irrigate swathes of some of the richest farming land on the planet, and its power plant was a vital source of electricity, particular after more than a year of attacks on Ukraine’s grid.
The catastrophe is also likely to fuel concerns about Moscow’s brinkmanship, if strong suspicions that Russia blew up the dam are proved, or are not countered.
Blowing up the dam is one of the most reckless things Vladimir Putin’s forces could do, short of using a nuclear weapon.
A willingness to recklessly endanger civilian lives, sweep away Russia’s own forces and damage farming systems vital to global security – for whatever reason – may add to western concerns that a cornered Russia could go even further in future.
