It’s incredibly rare to see the top two Cy Young candidates matchup this late in the regular season, which means baseball fans are in for a treat on Tuesday night.
When the Houston Astros face the Chicago White Sox, they’ll send Justin Verlander (-150 to win Cy Young at Tipico) to the mound against Dylan Cease (+190) and there’s really no understating what both of them have done this year.
White Sox (+1.5) vs. Astros (-130)
Over/Under 6.5
Named AL pitcher of the month for June and July, Cease has an MLB record streak of 14 starts with no more than one earned run allowed—surpassing Jacob deGrom’s absurd mark of 13 in 2021. Over that stretch the Sox star has a 0.66 ERA which stands as the lowest for any pitcher during a 14-game span in the last 100 years.
Dylan Cease has 55 walks and has allowed 28 earned runs.
The last three MLB pitchers to start 20+ games in a season and have at least twice as many walks as earned runs?
Nolan Ryan, Nolan Ryan, and Nolan Ryan
— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) August 12, 2022
Here’s a quick glance at how the stats for Cease and Verlander stack up in the AL:
| Category |
Dylan Cease AL Rank |
Justin Verlander AL Rank |
|
WAR |
1 (4.4) |
2 (4.4) |
|
ERA |
2 (1.96) |
1 (1.85) |
|
Strikeouts |
2 (174) |
9 (134) |
|
Home Runs Per 9 IP |
5 (0.699) |
8 (0.794) |
|
Win Probability Added |
5 (3.0) |
1 (3.5) |
|
Hits Per 9 IP |
4 (6.435) |
2 (6.154) |
Justin Verlander's earned runs per start in 2022:
1, 0, 3, 1, 2, 0, 0, 0, 6, 3, 1, 0, 4, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 3Dylan Cease's earned runs per start in 2022:
1, 1, 4, 2, 0, 1, 6, 0, 7, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1 pic.twitter.com/G1rj80wOGx— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) August 16, 2022
So, yeah, these guys are for real.
The White Sox have won four straight. The Astros have won four of their last five after dropping the series opener in Chicago on Monday.
Let’s figure out how to bet on them.
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NRFI (-175), YRFI (+122) or Pass?
The White Sox have allowed a run in the first inning three times during Cease’s 14-game streak. Meanwhile, Verlander has been the best NRFI pitcher in baseball (20-1, 10-1 on the road).
That would seem like an easy NRFI bet.
The problem, however, is that Houston’s leadoff hitter, Jose Altuve, is historically great against Cease. He’s got a .500 average in eight at-bats with one home run.
Cease also got roughed up pretty good in his last three games against the Astros, allowing 11 earned runs in 15 innings pitched. Granted, he’s come quite along way this season, but the 26-year-old got yanked after 1.2 innings pitched and three runs allowed in last year’s American League Division Series against Houston.
Coupled with a Chicago defense that ranks 26th in fielding percentage (.983), there is some cause for concern here.
The NRFI nymph is a fan of today's card 🧚
As the marathon schedule dwindles, each pitch matters slightly more, which slowly adds tiny nibbles of value to select NRFIs everyday like sand trickling down an hourglass ⌛️ pic.twitter.com/v26uCVNStT
— Jared Smith (@jaredleesmith) August 16, 2022
The Pick: Lean NRFI, but if the juice is too much just pass here.
Strikeout Over/Unders
Both pitchers have their strikeout lines set at 6.5.
Verlander: Over 6.5 (+102), Under 6.5 (-145)
Cease: Over 6.5 (-160), Under 6.5 (+110)
Verlander has gone over 6.5 strikeouts in four of his last six outings. Cease has done it in five of his last seven starts. Both seem like locks for their overs, however, Verlander has averaged 6.22 strikeouts at Guaranteed Rate Field over 22 starts in his career and the Sox offense has the seventh-fewest strikeouts this season (899).
Similarly, the Astros have the second-fewest strikeouts in baseball (851). These are two teams who know how to put the ball in play.
The Pick: Cease Under (+110), Verlander Under (-145)
First 5 Innings
Here’s a great play that’s just hiding on the board: 1st 5 inning total runs UNDER 2.5 (+145) and UNDER 3.5 (-122).
The White Sox average 4.17 runs per game at home. Houston averages 4.37 runs per game on the road. Baserunners will be at a premium and the Sox have a horrible tendency to only hit singles.
705 of the White Sox’s first 1,000 hits this year were singles.
Most recent teams to finish a season with at least 70% of their hits being singles:
2018 Marlins (63-98)
2016 Marlins (79-82)
2015 Marlins (71-91)
2015 Braves (67-95)The Tigers also are on pace to join this list.
— Jeremy Frank (@MLBRandomStats) August 11, 2022
TL;DR: Chicago needs a new hitting coach.
Final Picks and Betting Trends
Before you place your bets on the moneyline and spread, keep a few things in mind:
Houston as 2022 Road Favorite
- 30-18, 62.5% cover Moneyline
- 22-26, 45.8% cover Run Line
- Under hits 68% for Houston as Road Favorite
Public Action (Per Action Network)
- 69 percent of bets on the spread have Houston (-1.5)
- 52 percent of money bet on the spread is on Chicago (+1.5)
- 80 percent of bets on the moneyline have Houston (-130)
- 68 percent of the money wagered on the moneyline has Houston (-130)
- 92 percent of the bets on the Over/Under and 96 percent of the money wagered has Under 6.5
And then of course, there are the Vibe stats:
The White Sox have won 11 of the 16 games this season in which the opposing starting pitcher's name started with a J
— Jay Cuda (@JayCuda) August 16, 2022
The White Sox have the best record in the American League over the last 30 games (19-11).
— Jay Cuda (@JayCuda) August 16, 2022
The Picks: White Sox (+1.5), Under 6.5
The Parlay: Astros ML + Under 6.5 (+381)
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