We’ve safely returned to the familiar game of quarterback contract leapfrog, where each deal just slightly surpasses the one before it, with just a little bit of room inside the minutiae of each for agents to squabble over the superiority of their injury guarantees.
Our detours into what is truly possible from a monetary standpoint, provided by Patrick Mahomes (a massive jump in both length and average annual value) Kirk Cousins (year-by-year fully guaranteed contracts) and Deshaun Watson (a desperate, fully guaranteed super deal) were entertaining to say the least. They were all somewhat circumstantial, though, and driven by certain events not applicable to other quarterbacks in the pool.
So it went for Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson and now Justin Herbert, who inked a five-year, $262.5 million deal on Tuesday. The terms were first reported by ESPN. Jackson topped Hurts by $5 million. Herbert topped Jackson by $2.5 million, with more guaranteed in case of injury.
Jayne Kamin-Oncea/USA TODAY Sports
But with Joe Burrow on deck—one would assume he signs a deal before the start of the 2023 regular season—it’s fair to wonder whether that tidy procession will continue. Herbert was worthy of a market-topping extension based on his production and his potential. Burrow is worthy of a market-bending extension based on his track record of success, the juxtaposition of the organization before and after his emergence, and the difficult-to-argue-against fact that, next to Mahomes, he is the best quarterback in football.
Far be it from us to tell Burrow what to do with his money, but if the Bengals offered me a $5 million raise over the Herbert deal with a similar structure I’d quickly reject it. I don’t know Burrow’s personal financial goals, I don’t know what his willingness would be to, say, take a contract such as Mahomes’s that builds in a ton of flexibility from a cash-on-hand standpoint and if that would be more appealing than making bank. I don’t know if there is personal meaning or satisfaction in forcing a franchise to scrape the floor for every last cent like the Grinch out of Whoville.
There is a marked difference between what Herbert is doing in Los Angeles and what Burrow has already done in Cincinnati. While one could fairly argue that Burrow has better wide receivers and a better combination of offensive-minded coach and play-caller (Herbert, during his rookie season, did play under Colts coach and noted QB guru Shane Steichen), neither of them are starved for resources. Both play in incredibly difficult divisions. Both have already logged several signature moments.
Only one has completely altered the course of the franchise. While these are circumstantial events (for example, if Burrow ended up in Los Angeles and Herbert ended up in Cincinnati, would we be making the same argument the other way?), the current reality is undeniable. Cincinnati, both the town and the team, rotate around Burrow as if he is a ball of hot plasma. Their ability to reach more Super Bowls (as soon as this year), attract top-end talent, eventually build a new stadium and remain relevant as a franchise not owned by a cash-hose billionaire straight out of the Wolf of Wall Street casting call all hinge directly on his ability to throw a football, be cool and be cool while throwing a football.
Kareem Elgazzar/USA TODAY NETWORK
Pick your favorite potential contractual gimmick. Burrow is worth Watson fully guaranteed money. He is worth tie-him-to-the-salary-cap money. He is worth cut-him-a-percent-of-the-franchise money. He is worth make-him-mayor-for-life-no-show-city-job money. It’s up to the Bengals to sort out those particulars. It’s up to Burrow to stand his ground if he so chooses. I would have a hard time finding a coach or executive in the NFL willing to stand in his way and argue against it.
These are strange times in the NFL to define value. For example, running backs and tight ends, two of the most versatile and valuable positions in the sport, are subject to notably depressed markets. Saquon Barkley has to rush for 1,350 yards, score 11 touchdowns and win Olympic gold in Equestrian Dressage in order to make another $900,000 this year in incentives.
So while it may not be Burrow’s style or personality to fight for his actual worth, there is no better time to remind teams that some players go beyond what is comfortable and conventional. Some players are worth a market teardown. Some players don’t just go next in the game of leapfrog.
