In one sense, the fundamentals of this election season have remained remarkably consistent. President Joe Biden's approval ratings languish in the low 40s. High inflation stubbornly persists. And odds have stayed stacked against the sitting president's party.
In another sense, nothing about this moment feels predictable. The cycle has been bookended by two acts of political violence — the Jan. 6, 2021, siege of the U.S. Capitol and the assault on House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's husband — that underscore the country's jittery mood. The Supreme Court reversed nationwide protections for abortion rights that had remained in place for nearly 50 years. A former president is facing an unprecedented array of legal troubles, even as he hints at plans to make another White House bid.
The tension between these dynamics has played out like a tug-of-war, with each side seeming at various times to have more pull. But with Election Day approaching Tuesday, the laws of political gravity appear to have the upper hand over the volatility of a nation on edge. Republicans are favored to flip at least one chamber in Congress, and most Democrats have become increasingly glum about their party's prospects.
