Following three years of military rule, Chadians will cast their ballots in presidential elections on Monday, with General Mahamat Idriss Déby poised to consolidate the family dynasty.
Déby, proclaimed head of state by Chad's army three years ago, is the favourite to win Monday's election after the junta violently repressed much of the opposition.
But in an unprecedented scenario for Chad, Succès Masra – once a fierce opponent of the Déby dynasty who then allied with them and was recently appointed prime minister – is also attracting large crowds.
Two theories are reportedly circulating about what is going on in the African nation of 18 million people.
One is that Masra's candidacy for president is just a show to provide a democratic fig leaf for a vote Déby will easily win.
Lawmaker Rakhis Ahmat Saleh, an opposition candidate disqualified by Chad's Constitutional Council along with nine others, told French news agency AFP: "Masra is a follower, he is raising the stakes simply to ensure his place after Déby's election."
Masra has said he will win the election and will "keep a place" at his side for General Déby.
The other possibility is that Masra has been galvanised by the crowds. He might now consider himself a genuine opponent and could push Déby into a run-off and convince the military junta to stuff the ballot boxes.
"The hypothesis, at the beginning, was that he was going to go along with Deby with the result all decided in advance, but Masra is now thinking there will be a Diomaye Faye in Chad," Kelma Manatouma, professor of political science at the University of N'Djamena, told AFP.
Faye was the surprise victor of Senegal's March presidential election.
Déby dynasty
In Chad's capital N'Djamena, correspondents report that the only posters on view are those of MIDI – the acronym of Mahamat Déby – predicting a "first-round knockout".
It is the same slogan used by his father, Idriss Déby Itno, who officially won 80 percent in the first-round ballot in 2021.
The few remaining opposition groups have called for a boycott of the vote, which they say is intended to establish a Déby dynasty.
The army appointed Mahamat Déby transitional president on 20 April 2021 following the death of his father, who was killed by rebels after ruling Chad with an iron fist for 30 years.
The younger Déby promised an 18-month transition to democracy, but then extended it by two years.
Opposition deaths
On 20 October 2022, the army and police opened fire on opposition demonstrators, in particular The Transformers – Masra's party.
At least 300 young people died, according to international NGOs, or about 50 according to the junta.
A thousand others were reportedly sent to the Koro Toro desert penal colony, with some dying en route or executed.
The main opposition leaders, now mostly in exile, accuse Masra of betrayal and forgetting the victims from his own party in exchange for a role as prime minister.
Then, on 28 February, Yaya Dillo – a cousin of Déby and his fiercest rival in the election – was killed in an army assault. According to his party, he was executed with a "point-blank bullet to the head".
The eight remaining candidates – who are either not hostile to the regime or little known – are not expected to pick up much of the vote.
'Chaotic governance'
Results are expected on 21 May, with a possible second round on 22 June.
Remadji Hoinathy, a Chad expert with the Institute of Security Studies, is sceptical Déby could win outright in a fair race.
"Déby has behind him a record of 30 years of chaotic governance, with all economic and social indicators in the red," Hoinathy told AFP.
"It is difficult to see how he could prevail in the first round without forcing his hand at the ballot box."
If that is case, the cheating "will be too blatant and we risk falling back into events similar to those of 20 October 2022", warned Ladiba Gondeu, professor of sociology at the University of N'Djamena.
France still maintains 1,000 troops in Chad, which is seen as a pillar in the fight against jihadists in the Sahel region – especially after Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger expelled French troops following a series of military coups.
(with AFP)
